Today's Football

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
Post Reply
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6267
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Beagle wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2024 8:05 pm
Hi Kai, what website is that screen grab from if you don’t mind me asking.
WhoScored, it has a nice preview for big matches where you can get the relevant info at a glance, just don't blindly trust their lineup predictions : https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/17293 ... -Tottenham
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23820
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

10-men PSG go two up against Marseille.
Lynskey888
Posts: 62
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2023 7:51 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2024 9:33 pm
10-men PSG go two up against Marseille.
That's the second time this season they've taken the lead and held it after having a player sent off. In December, they beat Le Havre 2-0 after Donnarumma was red-carded in the 10th minute.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23820
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Lynskey888 wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:01 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2024 9:33 pm
10-men PSG go two up against Marseille.
That's the second time this season they've taken the lead and held it after having a player sent off. In December, they beat Le Havre 2-0 after Donnarumma was red-carded in the 10th minute.
I wouldn't like to be the red-carded player in those situations. It would make you feel surplus to requirements - I'd want them to lose without me. ;)
Beagle
Posts: 26
Joined: Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:52 pm

Kai wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2024 8:58 pm
Beagle wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2024 8:05 pm
Hi Kai, what website is that screen grab from if you don’t mind me asking.
WhoScored, it has a nice preview for big matches where you can get the relevant info at a glance, just don't blindly trust their lineup predictions : https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/17293 ... -Tottenham
Thanks, yeah nice format.
Last edited by Beagle on Mon Apr 01, 2024 1:11 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Lynskey888
Posts: 62
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2023 7:51 pm

Kai wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2024 8:54 pm
Well you can't expect to make the right call every time so better to get used to that uncertainty asap, before placing any trades you could ask yourself what's the worst thing that can possibly happen, and if you're not okay with that don't place that trade or scale back to whatever you feel comfortable risking
It's not the uncertainty per se that I find difficult. It's not even the risk that the market will move against me. What I can't handle is being absent in that overnight period when a price change could begin. Even when I'm looking for a pre-kickoff swing on the day of a game, I've got a terrible compulsion to constantly check the market.

You're right, though. What's the worst that could possibly happen? I've probably got a half-decent idea of the maximum downside when I enter. Something to work on...
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23820
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Betfair have gone back to their old live graphic, the new one didn't work.
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6267
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Lynskey888 wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2024 10:27 pm
Kai wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2024 8:54 pm
Well you can't expect to make the right call every time so better to get used to that uncertainty asap, before placing any trades you could ask yourself what's the worst thing that can possibly happen, and if you're not okay with that don't place that trade or scale back to whatever you feel comfortable risking
It's not the uncertainty per se that I find difficult. It's not even the risk that the market will move against me. What I can't handle is being absent in that overnight period when a price change could begin. Even when I'm looking for a pre-kickoff swing on the day of a game, I've got a terrible compulsion to constantly check the market.

You're right, though. What's the worst that could possibly happen? I've probably got a half-decent idea of the maximum downside when I enter. Something to work on...
I had that same compulsion but it goes away, the more you trade the more you desensitize from the whims of the market and the more you realize that worst case you about break even, and obviously the more confidence you build in your approach (through past results) the less you will care about the bottom line of any one individual market (which are near perfect trading conditions tbh). The perfect conditions would be that you trade without any bias whatsoever but this is impossible, only auto/ai could do that, so best thing we can do is minimize our various biases to an irrelevant level

In general too many traders new and old (myself included at times) play too defensive and cut themselves short, you need some losses to show you where the borders of your edge are, and for that all-important commission

However, if someone is very new and emotionally involved in every trade then it's very possible they fall for every market trick out there (like ending up laying at the top of a range or backing at bottom etc) and their starting strategies are very -EV which means losses can accumulate relatively quickly

But I do get what you're saying, I remember some years back leaving a 20k lay overnight on a short priced fav like City which was a position size well outside my comfort zone, and I had trouble sleeping that night with irrational fears creeping into my into my subconscious, and what happened overnight was the market moved a few ticks against me and then pulled back a few into my favour, so maybe if I was awake I would have panicked and cut that one short, it also goes to show how thin the margins can be between loss and profit
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6267
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

This was worth a shot, rock bottom Forest Green pull off a huge result

Image
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23820
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Empoli look as though they're in for a hammering.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24875
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Kai wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2024 5:11 pm
This was worth a shot, rock bottom Forest Green pull off a huge result

Image
Nice
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23820
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Germany considering retiring their number 44 shirt because it resembles the Swastika. :lol: :lol: :lol:
Lynskey888
Posts: 62
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2023 7:51 pm

Kai wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2024 8:54 pm

I had that same compulsion but it goes away, the more you trade the more you desensitize from the whims of the market and the more you realize that worst case you about break even…
When the next opportunity comes along, I’ll remind myself of this, ta. Easier to commit thinking that the likely worst-case outcome is roughly break even. I will, however, need to trade more often to allow things to even out.

I’ve watched hundreds of pre-kickoff markets this season, trying to get an understanding of how they behave, but I’ve traded only a tiny proportion of that number. In part because of my can’t-leave-the-market-alone foibles mentioned above; also because of the larger stakes required to achieve a level of risk similar to what I’m used to in-play. These trades tie up most of what’s in my account, which leaves me committed to one trade only over a prolonged period of time. I’m reluctant to make another deposit in case I fall foul of affordability checks. When I spot the next pre-kickoff opportunity, perhaps I’ll just live with the restrictions it places on my ability to trade other markets simultaneously and try to be more patient. I’m certain of one thing, though: your 20K lay would have kept me awake at night, too. 🙂
User avatar
jamesedwards
Posts: 2400
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Fulham 2-0 down at Nottingham Forest make three substitutions in the 33rd minute. :lol: :lol: :lol:

(One :lol: for each sub)
Michael5482
Posts: 1283
Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:11 pm

jamesedwards wrote:
Tue Apr 02, 2024 8:04 pm
Fulham 2-0 down at Nottingham Forest make three substitutions in the 33rd minute. :lol: :lol: :lol:

(One :lol: for each sub)
Everton need 11 subs v Newcastle there absolutely horrendous.
Post Reply

Return to “Football trading”