30k heater

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shubb
Posts: 19
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:09 pm

Last year's Jan-Feb I hit a £30,000 heater and it twisted my whole year. I thought it was because of skill but actually it was just a lucky run. I ended up losing 10k last year because I couldn't give up betting a certain strategy. I think the market changed too so it wasn't working anymore.

This year I've been wiser to not fall in love with specific strategies so I'm winning again. Winning too much in a short time can be the worst thing that can happen to you.

Have you had similar situations?
shubb
Posts: 19
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:09 pm

Just to add to that, losing has been the best thing that has happened to me. I wouldn't have found the current better strategies if I wasn't losing. My motivation on studying goes way up when I'm losing.
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Kai
Posts: 6258
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

shubb wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 9:01 am
Just to add to that, losing has been the best thing that has happened to me. I wouldn't have found the current better strategies if I wasn't losing. My motivation on studying goes way up when I'm losing.
Because losing is synonymous to learning, try to swap those words around and see if the sentences make more sense. So in other words :

"Learning has been the best thing that has happened to me."

"I wouldn't have found the current better strategies if I wasn't learning."

"My motivation on studying goes way up when I'm learning."
shubb
Posts: 19
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:09 pm

Kai wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 9:23 am
shubb wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 9:01 am
Just to add to that, losing has been the best thing that has happened to me. I wouldn't have found the current better strategies if I wasn't losing. My motivation on studying goes way up when I'm losing.
Because losing is synonymous to learning, try to swap those words around and see if the sentences make more sense. So in other words :

"Learning has been the best thing that has happened to me."

"I wouldn't have found the current better strategies if I wasn't learning."

"My motivation on studying goes way up when I'm learning."
Thanks for your reply. You must be into haiku ;)

Some people just raise the stakes when they lose. Actually, it takes a very long time to be certain of your real winrate.
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Kai
Posts: 6258
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

shubb wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 9:30 am
Thanks for your reply. You must be into haiku ;)
Not really but well spotted ;) It only sounds corny because it's true :)
shubb
Posts: 19
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:09 pm

Kai wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 9:52 am
shubb wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 9:30 am
Thanks for your reply. You must be into haiku ;)
Not really but well spotted ;) It only sounds corny because it's true :)
I have feeling that the actual winners like you don't really talk about anything specific on this forum. You help a lot with your comments but the biggest winners are just silent on the real things.
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Kai
Posts: 6258
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

That's a rather incisive observation, would agree that sometimes what is unsaid is far more important.

There is a lot of forum noise and I'm just an average trader.
shubb
Posts: 19
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:09 pm

Kai wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 10:25 am
That's a rather incisive observation, would agree that sometimes what is unsaid is far more important.

There is a lot of forum noise and I'm just an average trader.
Yeah, you can skip some the comments by looking at the writer. Search by writer is where the money is.

If a big winner tells the market, that's too much info. You can just place bets on both sides and find the edge.
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Kai
Posts: 6258
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

shubb wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 10:34 am
Kai wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 10:25 am
That's a rather incisive observation, would agree that sometimes what is unsaid is far more important.

There is a lot of forum noise and I'm just an average trader.
Yeah, you can skip some the comments by looking at the writer. Search by writer is where the money is.

If a big winner tells the market, that's too much info. You can just place bets on both sides and find the edge.
That's maybe a bit disrespectful towards regulars, you can find a bit of value in many places, I often find some by chance or accident.

I think a bit of advice on methodology and psychology is fair game, but many people expect the forum and the software to be a service of sorts and end up disappointed.

End of the day a trader only knows what works for him, but yes, sharing ANYTHING is generally a thankless task and just hurts your bottom line in the long run.

The best +EV strategy is being a Silent Bob 💯
shubb
Posts: 19
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:09 pm

It's very lonely road if you're winning bettor/trader.

I have some background in poker communities and people there are way more open to share their strategies.
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Kai
Posts: 6258
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

shubb wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 11:33 am
It's very lonely road if you're winning bettor/trader.
That might explain most of the forum noise then. So I wouldn't be too harsh on anyone.

I half assumed you might be coming from poker since I never heard the term "heater" before in this context.

Anyway, good luck on your journey.
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Derek27
Posts: 23793
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

When I saw the title of this thread I thought it was about a 30 kilowatt heater!
Fugazi
Posts: 340
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

shubb wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2024 8:40 am
Last year's Jan-Feb I hit a £30,000 heater and it twisted my whole year. I thought it was because of skill but actually it was just a lucky run. I ended up losing 10k last year because I couldn't give up betting a certain strategy. I think the market changed too so it wasn't working anymore.

This year I've been wiser to not fall in love with specific strategies so I'm winning again. Winning too much in a short time can be the worst thing that can happen to you.

Have you had similar situations?
Variance.

In poker, it takes one million hands approx to ride out upswings / downswings and find out if youre profitable or not

You'd be amazed just how much a losing strategy can win initially. And vice versa
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