London Mayor market

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Euler
Posts: 24870
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Big wobble in this market which suggests the polls are out a bit on this one.

Touched 1.02 but on a steady drift as the counting continues.
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ODPaul82
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Location: Digswell Herts

has been stalled between 1.12-1.15 for a while now. Got some lays in @ 1.14 last night when couldn't sleep.
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Crazyskier
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Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

The volatility is due to the enormous amounts of relatively recent arrivals to our Capital city (mostly from Muslim lands) disillusionment with Labour due to their reluctance to criticise Israel's response the the Oct 7th atrocities by HAMAS.

Add to this the unhappy few remaining original white London voters, most of whom loathe Khan's biases and policies such as increasing ULEZ and charging schemes, and it's really a lot closer than it might have been.

Susan Hall for the Tories has a far larger chance of winning than many thought just a few weeks ago, especially if the turnout of aforementioned recent arrivals is low.Let us hope that is indeed the case.

CS
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ODPaul82
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Result expected after 5pm, the later it goes on the tighter it will have been so could see price rise the later it goes on.
ULEZ definitely a key thing, I spent most of my life living in Sutton & my mum still lives there & there is a serious amount of anger towards it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnDOEnziY-s
(The roundabout is about 30 second walk from my mums)
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The Silk Run
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ODPaul82 wrote:
Sat May 04, 2024 10:28 am
Result expected after 5pm, the later it goes on the tighter it will have been so could see price rise the later it goes on.
ULEZ definitely a key thing, I spent most of my life living in Sutton & my mum still lives there & there is a serious amount of anger towards it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnDOEnziY-s
(The roundabout is about 30 second walk from my mums)
I'm not familiar with the South London Boroughs but here in Central I get the vibe that KHAN is very popular. I like him too ...
He's GOOD for the foreigners but maybe not the native English.

I hope he's successful in another term in office.
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ODPaul82
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The Silk Run wrote:
Sat May 04, 2024 12:24 pm

I'm not familiar with the South London Boroughs but here in Central I get the vibe that KHAN is very popular. I like him too ...
He's GOOD for the foreigners but maybe not the native English.

I hope he's successful in another term in office.
I'm not a fan of him personally, just find him irritating :D but I find most politicians the same.
Price has dropped to 1.01 so am guessing bit of insider info on count has leaked out. I've added a bit more to my lay position as anything could still happen.
BettingAutomation
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:56 pm

I wouldn't touch politics with a barge pole unless I knew who was selected in advance to be elected.
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The Silk Run
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ODPaul82 wrote:
Sat May 04, 2024 12:37 pm
The Silk Run wrote:
Sat May 04, 2024 12:24 pm

I'm not familiar with the South London Boroughs but here in Central I get the vibe that KHAN is very popular. I like him too ...
He's GOOD for the foreigners but maybe not the native English.

I hope he's successful in another term in office.
I'm not a fan of him personally, just find him irritating :D but I find most politicians the same.
Price has dropped to 1.01 so am guessing bit of insider info on count has leaked out. I've added a bit more to my lay position as anything could still happen.
Good luck with the posturing on the outcome. I know you know what you are doing.
And have a lovely weekend ....
greenmark
Posts: 5065
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

Sadiq Khan v Boris Johnson v Ken Livingstone. I know where my vote would go. If anyone can present actual evidence that Sadiq has failed, I'm all ears. I love being presented by info that shatters my preconceptions. Sadiq is evidently a skilled politician, but he does express himself in a way that is borderline stupid.
Nontheless, London has made it's democratic choice.
Oops. 107000 votes! Not a great mandate.
It would seem from that that few people give a shit.
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The Silk Run
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The Silk Run wrote:
Sat May 04, 2024 1:04 pm
ODPaul82 wrote:
Sat May 04, 2024 12:37 pm
The Silk Run wrote:
Sat May 04, 2024 12:24 pm

I'm not familiar with the South London Boroughs but here in Central I get the vibe that KHAN is very popular. I like him too ...
He's GOOD for the foreigners but maybe not the native English.

I hope he's successful in another term in office.
I'm not a fan of him personally, just find him irritating :D but I find most politicians the same.
Price has dropped to 1.01 so am guessing bit of insider info on count has leaked out. I've added a bit more to my lay position as anything could still happen.
Good luck with the posturing on the outcome. I know you know what you are doing.
And have a lovely weekend ....
And I believe KHAN has just won the London Mayoral Election 2024 - Inshah Allah :D
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Naffman
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West Midlands Conservative got down to a low as 1.02 based on similar reports that Labour were very worried.
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Euler
Posts: 24870
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Results

🔴 LAB: 1,088,225 (43.7%)
🔵 CON: 811,518 (32.6%)
🟠 LDEM: 145,184 (5.8%)
🟢 GRN: 145,114 (5.8%)
🟣 RFM: 78,865 (3.2%)
⚪️ INDP: 47,815 (1.9%)

These numbers look tiny given the size of London. So I googled how many people lives in the 14 areas: -

As of the 2016 election, the fourteen single-member constituencies are listed below. Each constituency comprises between two and four local authorities, with an average electorate of around 440,000. The total electorate in 2021 was 6,191,387.
Archery1969
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Given Mr Cameron’s latest comments, I still believe the UK will be at war very soon. So, elections are kind of irrelevant.
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Derek27
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Is it possible a Betfair trader put about rumours that it's gonna be a close race? :mrgreen:
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The Silk Run
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Archery1969 wrote:
Sat May 04, 2024 7:12 pm
Given Mr Cameron’s latest comments, I still believe the UK will be at war very soon. So, elections are kind of irrelevant.
You mercenary you :D
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