Is it worth starting?

The sport of kings.
iambic_pentameter
Posts: 444
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

CloseBets wrote:
Mon May 13, 2024 2:22 pm
monty123 wrote:
Sat May 11, 2024 4:24 pm
Under the current climate of betting regulations, affordability checks etc is it worth trying to learn betfair horse trading from scratch as a beginner at the time?

What I'm afraid of is dedication a large amount of effort and time (time and effort I could be putting into something else) into it just to have befair account closed or something similar because I couldn't pass affordability checks. If it was 5 years 2018 or something Id be diving straight in but now not sure

Thanks
Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

You've little to lose giving it a shot as you'll find out reasonably soon if you're cut out for it. As a basic trader it's unlikely that the affordability checks will affect you as you should be learning on small stakes and if you 'crack' it they'd be little need to deposit. Most of the winners on here who just trade only probably can't remember the last time they deposited. If you're betting or arbing then that's a different kettle of fish.

Personally if I was starting out I'd be looking at all sports rather than limit yourself to Horse Racing which, imo, has had it's day and there are much better, and more liquid, markets to profit from. But try them all , trading isn't a one style fits all thing and some sports or strategies will fit your personality better than others.
Re the comment about looking at other sports, some thoughts:

Trade a sport that you are interested in, rather than just trying to make money from it
Trade a sport that fits around your lifestyle
Once you've found a sport, commit to it until you understand how the markets work - don't fall into the trap of losing money in, say, cricket and thinking "This is crap, I'll try tennis instead"
Ignore 90% of what you read on social media

Iambic
andy28
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Location: NZ

I think as a New Player you should grab data on more than 1 sport, As said above if you trade Cricket and it's not for you so you go to Tennis, if you have no data on Tennis you have not only wasted your time on Cricket but know you have to wait until you gather data on Tennis, so your back to square 1. Why not grab data on other sports you like as well?

Maybe time consuming but that's where the passion comes in. I am a novice and I did this it it has paid off as I have 3yrs data on the sports that interest me. I have only really looked at Racing so when I go onto another sport I am in a good spot to start
Mike Oxlong
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Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:14 pm

I am also a new trader and often hear that we should be collecting data, but since I am new I am unsure what data to collect.

Assume you are recording odds for each market every x minutes? Or is it as simple as collecting highest and lowest traded price? Perhaps even just BSP?
Anbell
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Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Mike Oxlong wrote:
Tue May 14, 2024 6:59 am
I am also a new trader and often hear that we should be collecting data, but since I am new I am unsure what data to collect.

Assume you are recording odds for each market every x minutes? Or is it as simple as collecting highest and lowest traded price? Perhaps even just BSP?
You can easily get BSP here: viewtopic.php?p=355030#p355030 Thanks to paspuggie48.
Or here: https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices
Mike Oxlong
Posts: 10
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:14 pm

Thanks, Anbell. Have you only been collecting BSP data points then?
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Kai
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monty123 wrote:
Sat May 11, 2024 4:24 pm
Under the current climate of betting regulations, affordability checks etc is it worth trying to learn betfair horse trading from scratch as a beginner at the time?
Yes, in terms of potential obstacles etc nowadays to conveniently use a racing analogy you could say we are officially in jump season, so there will be the occasional faller.

But with sensible risk management depending how well you ride the trading highs & lows you should still make it to the "finish line", whatever that is for you.
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Kai
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iambic_pentameter wrote:
Mon May 13, 2024 5:20 pm
Trade a sport that you are interested in, rather than just trying to make money from it
Trade a sport that fits around your lifestyle
Once you've found a sport, commit to it until you understand how the markets work - don't fall into the trap of losing money in, say, cricket and thinking "This is crap, I'll try tennis instead"
Ignore 90% of what you read on social media

Iambic
senti wrote:
Sun May 12, 2024 11:53 pm
Is it worth it? If it's fun enough, yes, otherwise no.

Don't underestimate passion and curiosity. Because that's your primary energy source to get the work done. I wouldn't worry too much about the future, your passion is your passion...so you do what you do and get on with it.
Would echo this, all good advice

In short, for me, you would need a :

1) Large emotional bank - to handle the steep learning curve, costly mistakes, false dawns, basically all the highs & lows of trading
2) Fuel source - whether it's passion or fun or something to prove etc, whatever will fuel your next attempt when you initially fail

GL & HF
senti
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2022 12:39 pm

Mike Oxlong wrote:
Tue May 14, 2024 6:59 am
I am also a new trader and often hear that we should be collecting data, but since I am new I am unsure what data to collect.

Assume you are recording odds for each market every x minutes? Or is it as simple as collecting highest and lowest traded price? Perhaps even just BSP?
A dataset might not answer the specific question you have in mind. Even if you spent years collecting that data.

I think the first data you need to collect is your past trades really, study them intensively. Why did the winners win and why did the losers lose. You can also reverse engineer trades made but other traders.

Working on the rationale behind your trading is important. To understand what you are doing and what succesful traders are doing.
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Snopyman
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2023 1:45 pm
Location: Cuba

I am writing this to you as someone who has wasted years trying to learn to trade horses, in my humble opinion why it is not worth starting horses now:

Prerace

- All the material on the internet about horses is outdated and no longer valid.
- Races don't have nearly as much liquidity as before, so it's much harder to scale stakes, the fillrate is desperate, before you could simply scalp and scalp a bunch of ticks.
- Only if you want to hunt for swings because 90% of the market is automated and when the price goes in one direction, the bots turn on and push.
- Almost no money comes in until 1 minute before the race, and then there is a slight chaos.
-Someone who is not experienced will hardly be able to deal with bots and a bunch of fake movements...

In my case, I was looking for something that has been gone for a long time, I tried to scalp but you scalp 3 ticks and then you lose 10 on a random movement, then you let go inplay and do some stupid things because you are nervous..

Later I built a strategy that is profitable by chasing swings within minutes of the start of the race

BUT

It turned out that it is quite difficult to scale stakes and it is simply not worth my time to deal with those markets anymore, fighting with bots for pennies.. :(


As for horses in-play, don't think of trading without a purchased drone image.
I understand that it's nice to watch clips on yt of horse trading, even I get nostalgic, but things have changed unfortunately..

You have a couple of big festivals every year where liquidity is okay and that's it..
It is possible to succeed, but much more difficult than before because of all the above..


My humble advice is to switch to something more liquid and stick with it, football, cricket, tennis, whatever... :D

Improve yourself on the ladder with small stakes, the whole ladder works mechanically once you learn, some things become obvious to you, even the bots make mistakes, so you collect their money ;) (especially on football).

As for tennis, you need a little more knowledge of the sport because there are a lot of people with autoclickers and bots (courtsiders of course) who are a second or two ahead of you on the market and you have almost no chance, you can only trade when you have perfected the ladder and not at a high level. GAP,, but that's a broad topic..

Build a strategy with small stakes and more importantly build your psyche, get used to the minus and everything will be easier. :!:

Prove to yourself that the strategy works, collect markets, analyze hit rates, avg win/loss, scale stakes..


Be constant!! - build a bank, improve yourself, later the sky is the limit..


Good luck!! ;)
Last edited by Snopyman on Tue May 14, 2024 2:08 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Fugazi
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

senti wrote:
Tue May 14, 2024 10:20 am
Mike Oxlong wrote:
Tue May 14, 2024 6:59 am
I am also a new trader and often hear that we should be collecting data, but since I am new I am unsure what data to collect.

Assume you are recording odds for each market every x minutes? Or is it as simple as collecting highest and lowest traded price? Perhaps even just BSP?
A dataset might not answer the specific question you have in mind. Even if you spent years collecting that data.

I think the first data you need to collect is your past trades really, study them intensively. Why did the winners win and why did the losers lose. You can also reverse engineer trades made but other traders.

Working on the rationale behind your trading is important. To understand what you are doing and what succesful traders are doing.
I have the entire timeform database for Greyhounds. On its own, Its unlikely there will be a pattern such as ''back the outsiders 50-1 and above". Its just too simple and will already have been exploited. I used it to build a prediction model. It was time consuming and I'm not convinced yet if it was really worth it. Needs a long testing period and further time input which is difficult when still fulltime employed.

I think you can glean most of what you want from recording ladders, taking note of what the market is eg. A handicap, maiden, greyhounds, unders/overs football market etc and watching them back

You only really refine an edge you already have going super in depth and collecting thousands of bits of data from each event. You can probably make a lot of profit just recording ladders and spotting the patterns. But thats not from personal experience of what worked for me, its more from trying to go too in depth and finding what wasn't worth it. More complexity and time doesn't necessarily equal more profit. But equally don't expect to watch a few scalping videos and go blindly clicking away.
monty123
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Joined: Sat May 11, 2024 4:14 pm

Apricate all the responses
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