How can I take advantage of arbers ?

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Fugazi
Posts: 446
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

So for a while I used to do some arbing. Realised petty quickly it wasn't worth my time with how quickly I got gubbed (limited by the bookie) for the big arbs.

But I've been thinking.

Is the value 90% of the time coming from the bookie? Or is there a way I can maybe take advantage on the exchange side knowing people will lay at the price regardless as they already secured profit betting at the bookies?

Maybe I could set my lay price slightly higher for those that arrive a bit too late and can't get the price they wanted ? But then I risk the markets changing before I get chance to cancel the bet and someone rinses me for value. For example I could offer 5.5 on indulgente on the screenshot below.
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Derek27
Posts: 24361
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Fugazi wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2024 11:58 am
So for a while I used to do some arbing. Realised petty quickly it wasn't worth my time with how quickly I got gubbed (limited by the bookie) for the big arbs.

But I've been thinking.

Is the value 90% of the time coming from the bookie? Or is there a way I can maybe take advantage on the exchange side knowing people will lay at the price regardless as they already secured profit betting at the bookies?

Maybe I could set my lay price slightly higher for those that arrive a bit too late and can't get the price they wanted ? But then I risk the markets changing before I get chance to cancel the bet and someone rinses me for value. For example I could offer 5.5 on indulgente on the screenshot below.
I used to make money arbing US racing before I was gubbed by all bookies, but with hindsight, I reckon I could have made much more and got bigger bets on if I was just backing (or possible laying when the price crashes). Arbing is only fruitful because the value is there.
Fugazi
Posts: 446
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2024 12:12 pm
Fugazi wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2024 11:58 am
So for a while I used to do some arbing. Realised petty quickly it wasn't worth my time with how quickly I got gubbed (limited by the bookie) for the big arbs.

But I've been thinking.

Is the value 90% of the time coming from the bookie? Or is there a way I can maybe take advantage on the exchange side knowing people will lay at the price regardless as they already secured profit betting at the bookies?

Maybe I could set my lay price slightly higher for those that arrive a bit too late and can't get the price they wanted ? But then I risk the markets changing before I get chance to cancel the bet and someone rinses me for value. For example I could offer 5.5 on indulgente on the screenshot below.
I used to make money arbing US racing before I was gubbed by all bookies, but with hindsight, I reckon I could have made much more and got bigger bets on if I was just backing (or possible laying when the price crashes). Arbing is only fruitful because the value is there.
Yeah I do straight back selected 2up football. Not arbing but manage to get my account up to 8k and not gubbed yet. Will get gubbed eventually but its by far the most profitable strategy i've had in terms of ROI. Going to share the strategy on here once I'm gubbed and its no use to me.
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jamesedwards
Posts: 2641
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

There is a greening obsession within the trading community, even though it is usually -EV. You see it everywhere.

Someone else's -EV can be your +EV.
Fugazi
Posts: 446
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

jamesedwards wrote:
Sat Jun 15, 2024 1:51 pm
There is a greening obsession within the trading community, even though it is usually -EV. You see it everywhere.

Someone else's -EV can be your +EV.
I've just had a lightbulb moment.
Safeway
Posts: 119
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:00 pm

I'm not heading this way again myself but I successfully arbed the most obscure football matches a few years ago. I got gubbed quickly but I was pretty enthusiastic about it for a while.

Sometimes it's a bit nerve-racking placing a big back stake with a bookie, not being 100% sure the lay bet will be obtainable in low-liquidity markets.

Smarkets seemed to be able to quell my fears. If I wanted a lot they gave me a little, then a little more, then a little more.....

My gob was hanging wide open. So much so that I still remember it very clearly now. I repeated this on quite a few markets.

I don't really believe those offers were coming from a punter. A betting exchange with extra benefits :roll:
Fugazi
Posts: 446
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

Safeway wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2024 7:37 pm
I'm not heading this way again myself but I successfully arbed the most obscure football matches a few years ago. I got gubbed quickly but I was pretty enthusiastic about it for a while.

Sometimes it's a bit nerve-racking placing a big back stake with a bookie, not being 100% sure the lay bet will be obtainable in low-liquidity markets.

Smarkets seemed to be able to quell my fears. If I wanted a lot they gave me a little, then a little more, then a little more.....

My gob was hanging wide open. So much so that I still remember it very clearly now. I repeated this on quite a few markets.

I don't really believe those offers were coming from a punter. A betting exchange with extra benefits :roll:
Can you remember if your exchange was positive or negative at the end of it all?

I assume it ends up positive at the bookies and negative at the exchange ? I only briefly bothered with arbing and cant remember if my smarkets was negative or positive at the end.
Safeway
Posts: 119
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:00 pm

Fugazi wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2024 10:47 pm
Safeway wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2024 7:37 pm
I'm not heading this way again myself but I successfully arbed the most obscure football matches a few years ago. I got gubbed quickly but I was pretty enthusiastic about it for a while.

Sometimes it's a bit nerve-racking placing a big back stake with a bookie, not being 100% sure the lay bet will be obtainable in low-liquidity markets.

Smarkets seemed to be able to quell my fears. If I wanted a lot they gave me a little, then a little more, then a little more.....

My gob was hanging wide open. So much so that I still remember it very clearly now. I repeated this on quite a few markets.

I don't really believe those offers were coming from a punter. A betting exchange with extra benefits :roll:
Can you remember if your exchange was positive or negative at the end of it all?

I assume it ends up positive at the bookies and negative at the exchange ? I only briefly bothered with arbing and cant remember if my smarkets was negative or positive at the end.
I made profit. BUT there was a risk holding a large back bet on a team I’d never heard of.

I can’t recommend this approach to anybody and you can only be gubbed so many times until there’s no bookies left. Having said that I don’t deal with any traditional bookies now anyway.

I do think an exchange should be an exchange and anything else is a bit ‘iffy.’
Fugazi
Posts: 446
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

Safeway wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2024 10:50 am
Fugazi wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2024 10:47 pm
Safeway wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2024 7:37 pm
I'm not heading this way again myself but I successfully arbed the most obscure football matches a few years ago. I got gubbed quickly but I was pretty enthusiastic about it for a while.

Sometimes it's a bit nerve-racking placing a big back stake with a bookie, not being 100% sure the lay bet will be obtainable in low-liquidity markets.

Smarkets seemed to be able to quell my fears. If I wanted a lot they gave me a little, then a little more, then a little more.....

My gob was hanging wide open. So much so that I still remember it very clearly now. I repeated this on quite a few markets.

I don't really believe those offers were coming from a punter. A betting exchange with extra benefits :roll:
Can you remember if your exchange was positive or negative at the end of it all?

I assume it ends up positive at the bookies and negative at the exchange ? I only briefly bothered with arbing and cant remember if my smarkets was negative or positive at the end.
I made profit. BUT there was a risk holding a large back bet on a team I’d never heard of.

I can’t recommend this approach to anybody and you can only be gubbed so many times until there’s no bookies left. Having said that I don’t deal with any traditional bookies now anyway.

I do think an exchange should be an exchange and anything else is a bit ‘iffy.’
What I'm getting at is if I could just do the lay part of an arb at the exchange and profit long term. I know just backing is profitable hence you get gubbed. I wonder if true odds lie somewhere inbetween back and lay price or if the lay price is the true odds.
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jimibt
Posts: 3796
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

Fugazi wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2024 12:51 pm
Safeway wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2024 10:50 am
Fugazi wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2024 10:47 pm


Can you remember if your exchange was positive or negative at the end of it all?

I assume it ends up positive at the bookies and negative at the exchange ? I only briefly bothered with arbing and cant remember if my smarkets was negative or positive at the end.
I made profit. BUT there was a risk holding a large back bet on a team I’d never heard of.

I can’t recommend this approach to anybody and you can only be gubbed so many times until there’s no bookies left. Having said that I don’t deal with any traditional bookies now anyway.

I do think an exchange should be an exchange and anything else is a bit ‘iffy.’
What I'm getting at is if I could just do the lay part of an arb at the exchange and profit long term. I know just backing is profitable hence you get gubbed. I wonder if true odds lie somewhere inbetween back and lay price or if the lay price is the true odds.
i think you'd find that the variance would kill you on this one. would be interesting tho to see any stats on arbing that supported its use otherwise.
Fugazi
Posts: 446
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

jimibt wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2024 12:59 pm
Fugazi wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2024 12:51 pm
Safeway wrote:
Mon Jun 17, 2024 10:50 am


I made profit. BUT there was a risk holding a large back bet on a team I’d never heard of.

I can’t recommend this approach to anybody and you can only be gubbed so many times until there’s no bookies left. Having said that I don’t deal with any traditional bookies now anyway.

I do think an exchange should be an exchange and anything else is a bit ‘iffy.’
What I'm getting at is if I could just do the lay part of an arb at the exchange and profit long term. I know just backing is profitable hence you get gubbed. I wonder if true odds lie somewhere inbetween back and lay price or if the lay price is the true odds.
i think you'd find that the variance would kill you on this one. would be interesting tho to see any stats on arbing that supported its use otherwise.
I get 0 comission on smarkets so only have to be marginal +EV. Experimented with a small sample this weekend and had -8 percent roi on 20 bets. So not wanting to waste too much time on it 😂

What I could do is change the price in my favour as the arber still profits and wait for liquidity to run out and my price get taken. But I would have to constantly monitor price changes at the bookie so I don't provide value if market changes against me.
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