Today's Horse Racing

[invisiblelayer]

From the Racing Post....

Special reports
It was once the 'mind-blowing' revolution to betting on racing - but has the Betfair Exchange lost its magic touch?
Jonathan Harding looks at the current state of racing markets on the famous betting platform

Jonathan Harding
Reporter

Back in the early 2000s, whether you were a serious punter or just betting for a bit of fun, there was really only one place you would want to be doing it online: the Betfair Exchange.

A colleague recalls that when they first joined the Racing Post more than 20 years ago and asked for some advice on how to learn more about gambling, they were instructed to open a Betfair account, deposit what they could afford and play around with it. It was that simple.

After its launch in 2000, the Betfair Exchange reshaped the gambling landscape, much to the chagrin of traditional bookmakers and some of British racing's leaders, by creating a hugely popular exchange where punters can act as the bettor and bookmaker, backing and laying. It offered better returns on racing than fixed-odds operators, as well as in-running betting and, with strong liquidity, it led to a wave of professional punters who built a community on the Betfair Forum, trading all manner of opinions – very often not just about the exchange.

Now, though, things are different. While other sports are holding up on the platform – most notably cricket, powered by interest from Asia – liquidity in racing markets in particular has markedly declined. In four years out of five between 2012 and 2016, more than 90 per cent of British races on the exchange had more than £500,000 traded on them in the win market; this year the total is less than ten per cent. Across the same period, the average total traded on each win market has more than halved from more than £800,000 to less than £400,000.


One explanation is that affordability checks have forced many of the bigger players to switch to black market providers or quit altogether, while a drop in activity on racing from recreational customers has meant there are far fewer minnows left for the remaining sharks to feed on.

And with sportsbooks offering a simpler proposition than the exchange, as well as extra places and bonuses, it is not clear where the next generation of in-running and exchange bettors will come from, nor where the platform now sits in the list of priorities for its parent company Flutter Entertainment, a gambling giant with a vast suite of products and US arm.

Like the lost art of tic-tac, are we approaching a time when vibrant racing markets on the Betfair Exchange will be seen as just another relic of betting's rich past – or are reports of its demise greatly exaggerated?

'We were completely different'

To publicise the launch of Betfair, co-founders Andrew Black and Edward Wray set up a false funeral procession through the streets of London and proclaimed the event "the death of the bookie", one of several marketing stunts to position it as a disruptor alongside the big firms.

The person-to-person betting website now provides markets on every sport imaginable but cut its teeth on racing and offered its first market on the 2000 Oaks. Just 36 people struck a bet on that race, but with its revolutionary new way to bet on racing, functioning almost like a stock market and enabling punters the chance to bet after a race had started at the click of a mouse, it soon grew rapidly.

"There are a lot of people at Betfair who love the exchange," says Black. "I know I'm selling my own book here, but it's a special piece of work and people who worked on it know that we created something very smart there. I would never bet anywhere else. It's unthinkable to me"
The growth of Betfair coincided with the emergence of professional gamblers such as Matt Williams, who was drawn to the platform in 2000 and ten years later made it his full-time job.

"It was mind-blowing," says Williams. "To be able to bet into a market that was live and liquid was appealing to me. It seemed that everybody who had an ability to bet in running was catered for by the liquidity. The exchange was a real disruptor and the bookmakers hated it."

To those discovering the exchange, it seemed to be all about punters. They were the ones who set the markets, with Betfair making its money in the early days through a commission from winning customers, meaning unlike fixed-odds bookmakers, it did not care who won or lost.

"We were on the punters' side," says Josh Apiafi, who served as director of racing and head of marketing at Betfair before leaving in 2007. "We were completely different. We led with straplines such as 'Winners Welcome', which is not something the traditional fixed-odds firms could ever say, especially in today’s environment. What we were trying to get across was that there was value for the customer and that we wanted you to win and be the best exchange player you can be."

In order to be the best, some punters on the exchange developed advanced software systems to play as effectively as possible. With that in mind, the exchange then required the right balance between these more sophisticated players and its recreational customers. But even after a highly controversial decision to introduce a premium charge in 2008 for a minority of the high-performing accounts, impacting those professional punters who were taking the most money out of the exchange, that balance became harder to find as the years went on and the software developed.

"After a couple of years, a lot of people had tried the exchange and suddenly Betfair had to spend more money to try to acquire new customers," says professional punter Neil Channing. "And they weren't lasting as long as they were being stripped of their money more efficiently by a band of professional layers and syndicates, who were taking large sums out of the exchange.

"You need many more people depositing £20 a month to feed one of those big players and Betfair just didn't seem prepared to spend the money to get millions of recreational punters, partly because the exchange is quite complicated, which is a barrier to entry, and it didn't make sense to them as they might not make the right percentage out of those people."

'Where have all the layers gone?'

While this is felt to have had an impact on the money flowing into the markets on the exchange, an even bigger factor has raised its head in recent years: affordability checks.

The checks have not been formally introduced as part of the UK government's gambling review but have been haphazardly applied by operators fearing heavy fines from the Gambling Commission, which has led to a marked drop in overall turnover on British racing – in June it was revealed betting turnover fell by 5.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2024.

The exchange has disproportionately suffered in this regulatory vacuum due to its reliance on a number of regular high-staking players, many of whom have refused to provide financial documents to prove they can afford to bet, which has changed the shape of the markets.

The number of active users on the platform is said to have held up reasonably well, but betting habits have changed and many are now staking smaller amounts on racing, and according to Channing, affordability checks have been a “big factor” behind this trend.

"If you're a professional layer on there you need a big balance as there will be volatility and swings,” he explains. “So if you're restricted in what you can deposit it makes it very hard to operate – it's a barrier to entry and it's hard for me to be a big layer on the exchange.

"Quite a lot of people I know who used to bet quite heavily on Betfair no longer do. The people on there are dying off as it's hard for younger people to play in a professional way."

The amount of money being matched on Betfair’s racing markets certainly suggests the decline has accelerated significantly in a short space of time. The average traded in British win markets has fallen every year since 2016, but the decline was particularly steep, falling by more than a third, between 2019 and 2022.


While the exchange still offers the best in-running liquidity, Martin Hughes, who began gambling as a full-time job after leaving his role at Barclays in 2008, agrees that it is a shadow of what it used to be.

"The exchange changed my life in some ways," says Hughes. "I messed around on Betfair after leaving Barclays but never expected to be a professional gambler. It feels like it's being hidden under a carpet now by Flutter but I love it and would still sell it as the best way to bet. I'd like Betfair to advertise it and look at the premium charge to give us a little bit of leeway.

"I still love doing it but I'm frustrated by the lack of liquidity. It's certainly changed over the last ten years and seems to have accelerated over the last few years. It feels a lot harder these days."

Interestingly, the numbers are holding up a lot better for the biggest races such as the Derby, Grand National and Gold Cup, but it’s in the more everyday fare that the drop in volumes has been particularly felt, something that has also affected Williams.

"I dropped my stake last year because there wasn't enough money in there to support what I was betting,” he says. “Million-pound markets felt commonplace when I started. Liquidity is the lifeblood of an exchange and there doesn't seem to be the same energy for it from Betfair or a will to make it better.

"Liquidity encourages action. We want to bet into strong markets but where have all the layers gone? We dip in and out, betting amongst ourselves. The money isn't there to take out of the markets – there's no depth to them."

'It's still the best thing out there'

Despite accusations that it has not done enough to attract the next generation of users and has instead prioritised its sportsbook, which has a higher margin, Betfair maintains that the exchange remains a "key component" of its offering.

Arthur Pitt, head of the Betfair Exchange, points to the development of the platform through features such as Betfair Beacons, the fire and ice emojis that appear next to market movers, recent marketing efforts and the fact the Betfair SP "consistently outperforms" the industry SP as examples of its desire to see the exchange thrive. However, he also argues the drop in activity in racing markets is a reflection of wider trends in the betting and gambling industries.

He says: "The exchange faces the same economic challenges that all operators are currently facing and, while active racing customers compare very favourably year on year, regulatory requirements and race-related constructs such as competitiveness and the attractiveness of the racing product to a younger audience have had an adverse effect on horseracing volumes."

Given those headwinds, what does the future hold for the exchange?

It is now one of several products under the banner of Flutter Entertainment following its £5 billion merger with Paddy Power in 2016. In that year, the exchange accounted for around 20 per cent of Paddy Power Betfair's revenue, whereas now it is estimated to account for less than two per cent and is expected to further decline as Flutter targets US growth, according to industry analysts Goodbody.

"It remains the best peer-to-peer exchange out there," says Goodbody's David Brohan. "The likes of Matchbook and Smarkets have had a big push in recent years but liquidity on the exchange remains unrivalled.

"In the absence of launching it in the US, we'd expect it to decline modestly each year but remain the number-one exchange out there. There could also be opportunities for further expansion in international markets, but given how small it is in a group context, it's hard to see a significant transformation to it."

In the UK and Ireland, the exchange sits alongside Betfair's sportsbook, as well as Paddy Power and Sky Bet. It is now one part of a gambling giant, which has prompted suggestions it has fallen down the pecking order compared to more profitable areas of the business and that the only reason it has not been sold is due to a fear of another company owning it, although that has been disputed by one insider, who says it remains a priority for the business.

On what the future might hold for the platform, co-founder Black says: "I think it will just continue on its own path. Liquidity has fallen but the reasons for that can be addressed and it can probably bounce back and level out.

"To some people it might be a little out of time, which is the worrying thing, but in my incredibly biased view it's still the best thing out there.

"It might be a little unloved in some parts of the company but definitely isn't in others. I think they care for it but I guess it might come second in some arguments. It deserves to be right at the top of the list of operators offering racing markets, but maybe it's not there for different reasons. That's a shame but I don't think it's dying. I think the entire industry has a problem."

The main concern for Williams, who is part of a prolific in-running syndicate, is that there is not enough new blood coming into the exchange, players with an interest in learning the system and engaging with racing, which perhaps reflects a wider trend around betting on the sport.

"If the exchange is still going in 30 years, there won't be an in-running group as most of us will be dead or retired," he says. "Nobody is coming into it now. It's too hard as there's not enough money in the markets. It's going to all the sharper in-running players and it's ever-decreasing circles.

"I was 27 when I started. I'm 50 now and I don't want to be doing this in five years. It feels like it's become worse during the last 18 months and it's going one way. I can see there still being in-running betting in the next five years, but there will be a lot less people making a lot less money. The turnover will be lower, which has a knock-on effect for horseracing."

The data backs up what Williams and his fellow professional punters have experienced in the last 18 months. It's a far cry from the early days – and, while the Betfair Exchange remains a profitable business, a major reversal of fortunes would be required to recapture that revolutionary excitement.

[ForFolksSake]

From the Racing Post....

Special reports
It was once the 'mind-blowing' revolution to betting on racing - but has the Betfair Exchange lost its magic touch?
Jonathan Harding looks at the current state of racing markets on the famous betting platform

Jonathan Harding
Reporter

Back in the early 2000s, whether you were a serious punter or just betting for a bit of fun, there was really only one place you would want to be doing it online: the Betfair Exchange.

A colleague recalls that when they first joined the Racing Post more than 20 years ago and asked for some advice on how to learn more about gambling, they were instructed to open a Betfair account, deposit what they could afford and play around with it. It was that simple.

After its launch in 2000, the Betfair Exchange reshaped the gambling landscape, much to the chagrin of traditional bookmakers and some of British racing's leaders, by creating a hugely popular exchange where punters can act as the bettor and bookmaker, backing and laying. It offered better returns on racing than fixed-odds operators, as well as in-running betting and, with strong liquidity, it led to a wave of professional punters who built a community on the Betfair Forum, trading all manner of opinions – very often not just about the exchange.

Now, though, things are different. While other sports are holding up on the platform – most notably cricket, powered by interest from Asia – liquidity in racing markets in particular has markedly declined. In four years out of five between 2012 and 2016, more than 90 per cent of British races on the exchange had more than £500,000 traded on them in the win market; this year the total is less than ten per cent. Across the same period, the average total traded on each win market has more than halved from more than £800,000 to less than £400,000.


One explanation is that affordability checks have forced many of the bigger players to switch to black market providers or quit altogether, while a drop in activity on racing from recreational customers has meant there are far fewer minnows left for the remaining sharks to feed on.

And with sportsbooks offering a simpler proposition than the exchange, as well as extra places and bonuses, it is not clear where the next generation of in-running and exchange bettors will come from, nor where the platform now sits in the list of priorities for its parent company Flutter Entertainment, a gambling giant with a vast suite of products and US arm.

Like the lost art of tic-tac, are we approaching a time when vibrant racing markets on the Betfair Exchange will be seen as just another relic of betting's rich past – or are reports of its demise greatly exaggerated?

'We were completely different'

To publicise the launch of Betfair, co-founders Andrew Black and Edward Wray set up a false funeral procession through the streets of London and proclaimed the event "the death of the bookie", one of several marketing stunts to position it as a disruptor alongside the big firms.

The person-to-person betting website now provides markets on every sport imaginable but cut its teeth on racing and offered its first market on the 2000 Oaks. Just 36 people struck a bet on that race, but with its revolutionary new way to bet on racing, functioning almost like a stock market and enabling punters the chance to bet after a race had started at the click of a mouse, it soon grew rapidly.

"There are a lot of people at Betfair who love the exchange," says Black. "I know I'm selling my own book here, but it's a special piece of work and people who worked on it know that we created something very smart there. I would never bet anywhere else. It's unthinkable to me"
The growth of Betfair coincided with the emergence of professional gamblers such as Matt Williams, who was drawn to the platform in 2000 and ten years later made it his full-time job.

"It was mind-blowing," says Williams. "To be able to bet into a market that was live and liquid was appealing to me. It seemed that everybody who had an ability to bet in running was catered for by the liquidity. The exchange was a real disruptor and the bookmakers hated it."

To those discovering the exchange, it seemed to be all about punters. They were the ones who set the markets, with Betfair making its money in the early days through a commission from winning customers, meaning unlike fixed-odds bookmakers, it did not care who won or lost.

"We were on the punters' side," says Josh Apiafi, who served as director of racing and head of marketing at Betfair before leaving in 2007. "We were completely different. We led with straplines such as 'Winners Welcome', which is not something the traditional fixed-odds firms could ever say, especially in today’s environment. What we were trying to get across was that there was value for the customer and that we wanted you to win and be the best exchange player you can be."

In order to be the best, some punters on the exchange developed advanced software systems to play as effectively as possible. With that in mind, the exchange then required the right balance between these more sophisticated players and its recreational customers. But even after a highly controversial decision to introduce a premium charge in 2008 for a minority of the high-performing accounts, impacting those professional punters who were taking the most money out of the exchange, that balance became harder to find as the years went on and the software developed.

"After a couple of years, a lot of people had tried the exchange and suddenly Betfair had to spend more money to try to acquire new customers," says professional punter Neil Channing. "And they weren't lasting as long as they were being stripped of their money more efficiently by a band of professional layers and syndicates, who were taking large sums out of the exchange.

"You need many more people depositing £20 a month to feed one of those big players and Betfair just didn't seem prepared to spend the money to get millions of recreational punters, partly because the exchange is quite complicated, which is a barrier to entry, and it didn't make sense to them as they might not make the right percentage out of those people."

'Where have all the layers gone?'

While this is felt to have had an impact on the money flowing into the markets on the exchange, an even bigger factor has raised its head in recent years: affordability checks.

The checks have not been formally introduced as part of the UK government's gambling review but have been haphazardly applied by operators fearing heavy fines from the Gambling Commission, which has led to a marked drop in overall turnover on British racing – in June it was revealed betting turnover fell by 5.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2024.

The exchange has disproportionately suffered in this regulatory vacuum due to its reliance on a number of regular high-staking players, many of whom have refused to provide financial documents to prove they can afford to bet, which has changed the shape of the markets.

The number of active users on the platform is said to have held up reasonably well, but betting habits have changed and many are now staking smaller amounts on racing, and according to Channing, affordability checks have been a “big factor” behind this trend.

"If you're a professional layer on there you need a big balance as there will be volatility and swings,” he explains. “So if you're restricted in what you can deposit it makes it very hard to operate – it's a barrier to entry and it's hard for me to be a big layer on the exchange.

"Quite a lot of people I know who used to bet quite heavily on Betfair no longer do. The people on there are dying off as it's hard for younger people to play in a professional way."

The amount of money being matched on Betfair’s racing markets certainly suggests the decline has accelerated significantly in a short space of time. The average traded in British win markets has fallen every year since 2016, but the decline was particularly steep, falling by more than a third, between 2019 and 2022.


While the exchange still offers the best in-running liquidity, Martin Hughes, who began gambling as a full-time job after leaving his role at Barclays in 2008, agrees that it is a shadow of what it used to be.

"The exchange changed my life in some ways," says Hughes. "I messed around on Betfair after leaving Barclays but never expected to be a professional gambler. It feels like it's being hidden under a carpet now by Flutter but I love it and would still sell it as the best way to bet. I'd like Betfair to advertise it and look at the premium charge to give us a little bit of leeway.

"I still love doing it but I'm frustrated by the lack of liquidity. It's certainly changed over the last ten years and seems to have accelerated over the last few years. It feels a lot harder these days."

Interestingly, the numbers are holding up a lot better for the biggest races such as the Derby, Grand National and Gold Cup, but it’s in the more everyday fare that the drop in volumes has been particularly felt, something that has also affected Williams.

"I dropped my stake last year because there wasn't enough money in there to support what I was betting,” he says. “Million-pound markets felt commonplace when I started. Liquidity is the lifeblood of an exchange and there doesn't seem to be the same energy for it from Betfair or a will to make it better.

"Liquidity encourages action. We want to bet into strong markets but where have all the layers gone? We dip in and out, betting amongst ourselves. The money isn't there to take out of the markets – there's no depth to them."

'It's still the best thing out there'

Despite accusations that it has not done enough to attract the next generation of users and has instead prioritised its sportsbook, which has a higher margin, Betfair maintains that the exchange remains a "key component" of its offering.

Arthur Pitt, head of the Betfair Exchange, points to the development of the platform through features such as Betfair Beacons, the fire and ice emojis that appear next to market movers, recent marketing efforts and the fact the Betfair SP "consistently outperforms" the industry SP as examples of its desire to see the exchange thrive. However, he also argues the drop in activity in racing markets is a reflection of wider trends in the betting and gambling industries.

He says: "The exchange faces the same economic challenges that all operators are currently facing and, while active racing customers compare very favourably year on year, regulatory requirements and race-related constructs such as competitiveness and the attractiveness of the racing product to a younger audience have had an adverse effect on horseracing volumes."

Given those headwinds, what does the future hold for the exchange?

It is now one of several products under the banner of Flutter Entertainment following its £5 billion merger with Paddy Power in 2016. In that year, the exchange accounted for around 20 per cent of Paddy Power Betfair's revenue, whereas now it is estimated to account for less than two per cent and is expected to further decline as Flutter targets US growth, according to industry analysts Goodbody.

"It remains the best peer-to-peer exchange out there," says Goodbody's David Brohan. "The likes of Matchbook and Smarkets have had a big push in recent years but liquidity on the exchange remains unrivalled.

"In the absence of launching it in the US, we'd expect it to decline modestly each year but remain the number-one exchange out there. There could also be opportunities for further expansion in international markets, but given how small it is in a group context, it's hard to see a significant transformation to it."

In the UK and Ireland, the exchange sits alongside Betfair's sportsbook, as well as Paddy Power and Sky Bet. It is now one part of a gambling giant, which has prompted suggestions it has fallen down the pecking order compared to more profitable areas of the business and that the only reason it has not been sold is due to a fear of another company owning it, although that has been disputed by one insider, who says it remains a priority for the business.

On what the future might hold for the platform, co-founder Black says: "I think it will just continue on its own path. Liquidity has fallen but the reasons for that can be addressed and it can probably bounce back and level out.

"To some people it might be a little out of time, which is the worrying thing, but in my incredibly biased view it's still the best thing out there.

"It might be a little unloved in some parts of the company but definitely isn't in others. I think they care for it but I guess it might come second in some arguments. It deserves to be right at the top of the list of operators offering racing markets, but maybe it's not there for different reasons. That's a shame but I don't think it's dying. I think the entire industry has a problem."

The main concern for Williams, who is part of a prolific in-running syndicate, is that there is not enough new blood coming into the exchange, players with an interest in learning the system and engaging with racing, which perhaps reflects a wider trend around betting on the sport.

"If the exchange is still going in 30 years, there won't be an in-running group as most of us will be dead or retired," he says. "Nobody is coming into it now. It's too hard as there's not enough money in the markets. It's going to all the sharper in-running players and it's ever-decreasing circles.

"I was 27 when I started. I'm 50 now and I don't want to be doing this in five years. It feels like it's become worse during the last 18 months and it's going one way. I can see there still being in-running betting in the next five years, but there will be a lot less people making a lot less money. The turnover will be lower, which has a knock-on effect for horseracing."

The data backs up what Williams and his fellow professional punters have experienced in the last 18 months. It's a far cry from the early days – and, while the Betfair Exchange remains a profitable business, a major reversal of fortunes would be required to recapture that revolutionary excitement.

FFS - I better get my act together

[wearthefoxhat]

recent marketing efforts and the fact the Betfair SP "consistently outperforms" the industry SP as examples of its desire to see the exchange thrive. However, he also argues the drop in activity in racing markets is a reflection of wider trends in the betting and gambling industries.

The racing BSP used to be better than the ISP by 16%-20%+. It's about half that now. (arguably still outperforms the ISP)


The main concern for Williams, who is part of a prolific in-running syndicate, is that there is not enough new blood coming into the exchange, players with an interest in learning the system and engaging with racing, which perhaps reflects a wider trend around betting on the sport.

"If the exchange is still going in 30 years, there won't be an in-running group as most of us will be dead or retired," he says. "Nobody is coming into it now. It's too hard as there's not enough money in the markets. It's going to all the sharper in-running players and it's ever-decreasing circles.

There's still plenty of action within the In-Play racing markets, the sharps have not been having it all their own way, as others have caught up with all the new sectional and pace data along with the likes of TPD software.

[Michael5482]

Obviously there's one or two Betfair issues like the introduction of the Sportsbook, PC charges etc which would have had an impact but I'd say the main overriding issue with liquidity is British Horse Racing not the Exchange, British Horse Racing has had it's head in the sand for years and continues to bury itself deeper.

On the whole the Exchange is an unbelievable product along with 3rd party software like Bet Angel. Everyone can see liquidity is down but there's millions traded every day across multiple sports o there's a wealth of opportunity still to be had. There's those who adapt and evolve and those who sit and do nothing that can be said for most things in life. British Horse Racing is in the later no Racing Post article will paper over that.

[Michael5482]

Tyson Fury runs his 1st horse tonight as an owner in the 17:45 at Newmarket "Big Gypsy King" it's a filly

[Michael5482]

Had a fantastic day at York today, great to see a massive crowd for what was a day of world class racing.

Couple of track records but there was a decent tail wind that aside Aiden O'Brien is an absolute genius, yes he has the best horses but you still have to deliver with them. Looking at his horses in the paddock there a cut above even the pace makers look amazing, all his horses look so cool, calm and ready for business a bit like him.

[Euler]

Great day at York. Hope the week continues like this.

[Euler]

From the Racing Post....

Special reports
It was once the 'mind-blowing' revolution to betting on racing - but has the Betfair Exchange lost its magic touch?
Jonathan Harding looks at the current state of racing markets on the famous betting platform

Jonathan Harding
Reporter

Jonathan approached me for some numbers and comments. I spent about 1/2 hour with him, but it looks like none of my thoughts are in the article.

Betfair have pushed idiot money to the sportsbook and that hasn't help and neither has affordability checks. But tens of billions will still be matched on the exchange this year.

I guess you need a Racing angle on the story but there are plenty of other sports that have declined over time. So that points to the above factors are being dominant.

[Diggy1884]

Hi Everyone

I’m reaching out because I’m still struggling to pinpoint the *reasons* behind the timing of Early vs late market moves in pre-race trading, and I’m hoping someone, ideally Euler or others with deep expertise, can shed some light on this.

The Issue:
In certain races, we witness substantial market moves occurring well before the 2-minute mark, sometimes as early as 12 minutes before the start. Conversely, in other races, the market stays relatively static until a sudden, large move happens just before the start (L8H late Hedge). This inconsistency in timing is making it difficult for me to trade effectively.

Whilst often I might understand the price it may go to, getting the entry right evades me and I struggle in making a trade plan around it.

What It Doesn’t Appear to Be (At Least in Isolation, Could Be Wrong—Please Explain):
- These moves don’t appear to be tied to race-ending or starting times.
- The timing of TV broadcasts, advertisements, or other races starting doesn’t consistently influence these moves.
- The race type or the gap between races doesn’t reliably explain the timing either.
- I’ve observed both early and late moves across various race types, including Maiden races, both steam/drift.
-Time of day doesn't seem to change this dynamic alone either.
-Liquidity doesn't solely explain it

Specific Examples:
- In the 18:20 Kempton, *Defence* drifted 5 mins out, 19:25 Kempton *Candyman Stan* steams in a similar timeframe (around 4mins move happens). Yet, in other races, nothing noteworthy happened until just before the start (L8H 2mins to post) like Ribble River Carlisle 15:50.
The 14:05 Carlisle fav shortens with high volatility bracketing back cycles for 13 mins or so until after post time then it just drifts.
- At York today, the 2nd race at track and 3rd race of the day saw an early move, while others did not follow the same pattern.
-Later we see genuine early moves that continue then we see early moves that are liquidated and then steam or cycle in volatility.

What I Need to Understand:
I’m not just looking to identify when these moves occur—I want to understand *why* they happen so a plan can be made and executed.

Specifically:
- What causes a market to move significantly early in some cases, but not until later in others?
- Are there underlying factors or signals that determine whether a move will occur early or late? Understanding these could greatly improve my trading strategy, as relying on broad rules or L8H has proven inconsistent (to some degree its more consistent to just stick to that arbitrary rule though) and risky.

Key Focus:
I’m looking for insights into the *causes* of these timing differences, not just the symptoms or indicators that we see after the fact. If anyone has observed consistent factors or can explain the reasons behind these patterns, your advice would be invaluable.

Thanks for reading, hope we get some useful actionable insight.

[Michael5482]

Elderflower must of lost a leg at Lingfield, monster drift.

[Euler]

Was a crazy drift, but didn't perform very well.

[Euler]

I’m reaching out because I’m still struggling to pinpoint the *reasons* behind the timing of Early vs late market moves in pre-race trading, and I’m hoping someone, ideally Euler or others with deep expertise, can shed some light on this.

I'll give you some thoughts when I have some more time. But, as with a lot of trading, there isn't an easy answer.

[Diggy1884]

I’m reaching out because I’m still struggling to pinpoint the *reasons* behind the timing of Early vs late market moves in pre-race trading, and I’m hoping someone, ideally Euler or others with deep expertise, can shed some light on this.

I'll give you some thoughts when I have some more time. But, as with a lot of trading, there isn't an easy answer.

Thanks Euler.

That would be great, cheers. I understand it's likely a combination of factors mentioned and more, I wouldn't like people to think I'm saying it isn't those things at all. I guess I'm finding it tricky to get the right combination of rules for entries on the different markets throughout the day that occur.

Still trying to wrap my head around it.

[Michael5482]

Yellow weather warning in place for York tomorrow (Storm Lillian)

[xtrader16]

I’m reaching out because I’m still struggling to pinpoint the *reasons* behind the timing of Early vs late market moves in pre-race trading, and I’m hoping someone, ideally Euler or others with deep expertise, can shed some light on this.

I'll give you some thoughts when I have some more time. But, as with a lot of trading, there isn't an easy answer.

Thanks Euler.

That would be great, cheers. I understand it's likely a combination of factors mentioned and more, I wouldn't like people to think I'm saying it isn't those things at all. I guess I'm finding it tricky to get the right combination of rules for entries on the different markets throughout the day that occur.

Still trying to wrap my head around it.

Nobody on here is going to tell you how you should trade the markets. I'd be surprised if they did. It's a trial and error thing until you find you own methods.