Value - pre off vs in Play

[Tiger]

I'm trying to get my head around a question on value pre race and in play.

I'll use a completely made up example - If I know that horse A is value at 6.0 but it only hits this price in play 1/3 of the way through the race does this mean taking the price at that point would no longer be value and it would be a long term loser?

I guess my question is does something deemed as value at the starting gun change in play because the horse appears to have a greater chance of winning?

I want to automate an in play strategy which is profitable assuming the definition of value doesn't change, but now second guessing myself.

[sionascaig]

I guess my question is does something deemed as value at the starting gun change in play because the horse appears to have a greater chance of winning?

Probably best to think of them as completely different markets or one market that has just had a big kick up the arse and is trying to settle into some other state but failing as the balloon has burst and will eventually resolve into just the one winner.

To answer your question with an example, if a horse fails to get out the stalls and your one does then you would expect what was value pre race is even better now as chance of winning has just gone up.

However that was value pre race & this is now a different market: liquidity has dropped, gaps in prices all over the shop, highly volatile movements in price etc.

In my view the number of value opportunities shoots up, as does level of risk / reward.

[Tiger]

I guess my question is does something deemed as value at the starting gun change in play because the horse appears to have a greater chance of winning?

Probably best to think of them as completely different markets or one market that has just had a big kick up the arse and is trying to settle into some other state but failing as the balloon has burst and will eventually resolve into just the one winner.

To answer your question with an example, if a horse fails to get out the stalls and your one does then you would expect what was value pre race is even better now as chance of winning has just gone up.

However that was value pre race & this is now a different market: liquidity has dropped, gaps in prices all over the shop, highly volatile movements in price etc.

In my view the number of value opportunities shoots up, as does level of risk / reward.

I hear you. So where does that leave my automation which put a back bet into the market at what was value pre-off? Would the price movements in play make any difference to the long term profitability of my initial bet?

[sionascaig]

I hear you. So where does that leave my automation which put a back bet into the market at what was value pre-off? Would the price movements in play make any difference to the long term profitability of my initial bet?

I'd say no if you don't intend to take any other action. And off course you will only know after many races if overall you had value positions.

If you did want to take account of price movements in play, say by exiting when price moves against you then will be at risk that price moves back and you have just made a loss in what was a value position. Similarly exiting when in profit ultimately will result in a loss in original vale (will end up with lower margins).

Some folk will put in a back bet with the intention of laying at a lower price in-play but that's a different ballgame.

A profitable "value" betting system will almost certainly have a gross margin of under 10% over many markets (probably closer to 5%). Given that, you really don't want to give away any margin if it can be avoided.

Saying that, you might find other "value" proposition inplay )

[Tiger]

I hear you. So where does that leave my automation which put a back bet into the market at what was value pre-off? Would the price movements in play make any difference to the long term profitability of my initial bet?

I'd say no if you don't intend to take any other action. And off course you will only know after many races if overall you had value positions.

If you did want to take account of price movements in play, say by exiting when price moves against you then will be at risk that price moves back and you have just made a loss in what was a value position. Similarly exiting when in profit ultimately will result in a loss in original vale (will end up with lower margins).

Some folk will put in a back bet with the intention of laying at a lower price in-play but that's a different ballgame.

A profitable "value" betting system will almost certainly have a gross margin of under 10% over many markets (probably closer to 5%). Given that, you really don't want to give away any margin if it can be avoided.

Saying that, you might find other "value" proposition inplay )

Super thank you, sounds like I'm all good using odds which I think is value pre-off. I don't want to trade in play, I'll create a whole new strategy if I do decide to give that a go.