US Presidential Election 2024

[Archery1969]

If Trump and his team are already bitching non stop about "electoral fraud" almost certainly fictional electoral fraud that suggest to me that their internal polling is going badly.

Or its part of the not so "secret" plan to fire of loads of court cases sowing confusion over vote validity, win the senate (likely) and get the senate to declare Trump the winner irrespective of votes..

That may initiate a modern USA civil war and wipe billions off worldwide share prices and plunge Europe and others into financial chaos.

[greenmark]

New polling data suggests that new registered voters in the swing states tend to be women by a 2 to 1 ratio and more likely to vote for the Democrats and therefore Harris. I don’t think it’s going to be that close at all. Trump is toast.

I hope you're right. £121 million on the exchange has it 1.66 Trump 2.5 Harris. Thats a huge amount of opinon.
I'd like to take a punt but not sure I could handle the disappointment of losing money on Harris alongside the disappointment of the orange combover nutjob becoming President again.

Apologies greenmark, I didn’t post the link to the information I used to make my assumption. Read the whole article below.


https://news.sky.com/story/us-election- ... eblog-body

Thanks. Chomped thru that now and it gives me hope that Harris could win.
Also Trump is already whining about electoral fraud. So he may be already attempting damage limitation.
Well we've been there before. And Trump's legal challenges got absolutely nowhere, wherever he challanged.
He's like Truss. The entire US legal system is against him (according to him), but he's still right.

[Big Bad Barney]

I'm just an observer, but for mine Harris is probably good value if women voters tend to get into the polls first....which I think I read somewhere (yes this is a very poorly researched comment )

2020 very much a yoyo around the election days if I remember right. I would expect the same 2024.

[Michael5482]

No one can tell me they'd genuinely vote for Trump the man must be smacked of his t@ts with the stuff he comes out with but it's America and in general they're thick as mince so wouldn't be surprised to see him back in office without a single sane policy being put forward.

US election is like an episode of The Simpsons, Harris is Marge the sensible sane one and Trump is Barney off his nut on Duff

[Archery1969]

No one can tell me they'd genuinely vote for Trump the man must be smacked of his t@ts with the stuff he comes out with but it's America and in general they're thick as mince so wouldn't be surprised to see him back in office without a single sane policy being put forward.

US election is like an episode of The Simpsons, Harris is Marge the sensible sane one and Trump is Barney off his nut on Duff

The problem is, American citizens, don’t care what happens outside of their states or country. Between them they have 360 million firearms and an untold amount of explosives.

Basically, not good reading if you become President, popular or not. I fully expect Trump to lose but at what cost will that be.

One thing for sure, November 5th, will be fireworks, potentially, for all the wrong reasons.

[greenmark]

No one can tell me they'd genuinely vote for Trump the man must be smacked of his t@ts with the stuff he comes out with but it's America and in general they're thick as mince so wouldn't be surprised to see him back in office without a single sane policy being put forward.

US election is like an episode of The Simpsons, Harris is Marge the sensible sane one and Trump is Barney off his nut on Duff

The problem is, American citizens, don’t care what happens outside of their states or country. Between them they have 360 million firearms and an untold amount of explosives.

Basically, not good reading if you become President, popular or not. I fully expect Trump to lose but at what cost will that be.

One thing for sure, November 5th, will be fireworks, potentially, for all the wrong reasons.

Last time the attempted insurrection was quashed effortlessly and was more about posturing and plain ordinary vandalism/ransacking of the Capitol.
That will never happen again. I'm 100% certain.

It's amazing and depresses me that Trump is even a candidate. The US is the home of the brave and land of the free.

Or perhaps its an uneasy mess of 50+ States.ie independent countries with their own law-making powers,

[Archery1969]

No one can tell me they'd genuinely vote for Trump the man must be smacked of his t@ts with the stuff he comes out with but it's America and in general they're thick as mince so wouldn't be surprised to see him back in office without a single sane policy being put forward.

US election is like an episode of The Simpsons, Harris is Marge the sensible sane one and Trump is Barney off his nut on Duff

The problem is, American citizens, don’t care what happens outside of their states or country. Between them they have 360 million firearms and an untold amount of explosives.

Basically, not good reading if you become President, popular or not. I fully expect Trump to lose but at what cost will that be.

One thing for sure, November 5th, will be fireworks, potentially, for all the wrong reasons.

Last time the attempted insurrection was quashed effortlessly and was more about posturing and plain ordinary vandalism/ransacking of the Capitol.
That will never happen again. I'm 100% certain.

It's amazing and depresses me that Trump is even a candidate. The US is the home of the brave and land of the free.

Or perhaps its an uneasy mess of 50+ States.ie independent countries with their own law-making powers,

The difference this time is that Trump has said he won’t run again. There are a few hundred thousand die hard Trump supporters, fully armed, that won’t let this one go without a fight, if need be. That’s potentially, allot of damage, depending on what firearms and explosives they have.

If Harris wins, I hope she does, the secret service and FBI will need to up their game and then some.

In comparison, the UK, struggled to deal with 8,000 rioters, who didn’t have access to firearms or explosives.

A well organised unit of over 100,000 full armed is a totally different ball game if they had the right leaders. That’s more than the UK armed forces.

Makes you think, get the guns out of circulation but that’s almost impossible within the USA.

[greenmark]

The problem is, American citizens, don’t care what happens outside of their states or country. Between them they have 360 million firearms and an untold amount of explosives.

Basically, not good reading if you become President, popular or not. I fully expect Trump to lose but at what cost will that be.

One thing for sure, November 5th, will be fireworks, potentially, for all the wrong reasons.

Last time the attempted insurrection was quashed effortlessly and was more about posturing and plain ordinary vandalism/ransacking of the Capitol.
That will never happen again. I'm 100% certain.

It's amazing and depresses me that Trump is even a candidate. The US is the home of the brave and land of the free.

Or perhaps its an uneasy mess of 50+ States.ie independent countries with their own law-making powers,

The difference this time is that Trump has said he won’t run again. There are a few hundred thousand die hard Trump supporters, fully armed, that won’t let this one go without a fight, if need be. That’s potentially, allot of damage, depending on what firearms and explosives they have.

If Harris wins, I hope she does, the secret service and FBI will need to up their game and then some.

In comparison, the UK, struggled to deal with 8,000 rioters, who didn’t have access to firearms or explosives.

A well organised unit of over 100,000 full armed is a totally different ball game if they had the right leaders. That’s more than the UK armed forces.

Makes you think, get the guns out of circulation but that’s almost impossible within the USA.

Well we've discussed this before re: guns. It is a bit like the genie is out of the bottle, now what? How do you persuade all those Americans to hand in their guns?
I think I know the response there would be.
But I fully support your ownership of a weapon to protect against a grizzly that gets too close for comfort.

[Archery1969]

Last time the attempted insurrection was quashed effortlessly and was more about posturing and plain ordinary vandalism/ransacking of the Capitol.
That will never happen again. I'm 100% certain.

It's amazing and depresses me that Trump is even a candidate. The US is the home of the brave and land of the free.

Or perhaps its an uneasy mess of 50+ States.ie independent countries with their own law-making powers,

The difference this time is that Trump has said he won’t run again. There are a few hundred thousand die hard Trump supporters, fully armed, that won’t let this one go without a fight, if need be. That’s potentially, allot of damage, depending on what firearms and explosives they have.

If Harris wins, I hope she does, the secret service and FBI will need to up their game and then some.

In comparison, the UK, struggled to deal with 8,000 rioters, who didn’t have access to firearms or explosives.

A well organised unit of over 100,000 full armed is a totally different ball game if they had the right leaders. That’s more than the UK armed forces.

Makes you think, get the guns out of circulation but that’s almost impossible within the USA.

Well we've discussed this before re: guns. It is a bit like the genie is out of the bottle, now what? How do you persuade all those Americans to hand in their guns?
I think I know the response there would be.
But I fully support your ownership of a weapon to protect against a grizzly that gets too close for comfort.

A bit of history...

Since the UK's 1968 firearms act, all firearms/shotguns needed to be registered with the Police. That means they knew what each individual had at home. Reasons were too try and remove many firearms from circulation which people had left over from serving during WW2 and/or their fathers/grandads left them or left hanging about in lofts, sheds and garages etc. The other reason was, if need be, they could seize them if instructed to do so by the Government at the time. All, in my book, valid reaons, no problem with that.

Since then, given 2 major incidents, it made it very easy for the Government of the day, to ban or restrict certain types of firearms, again, they know what you have at home.

The big difference with the USA is, nobody knows, who has what or how many. If you goto a gunshop in USA to buy a firearm, you fill out a form with ID, the shop passes that information onto the authorities and within a few minutes, the response is Yes, No, Wait.

Yes = The shop can sell you whatever you want, plus ammo. The on-line information must by law be destroyed.
No = Records show, your a convicted felon and/or spent time in an asylum.
Wait = Unless you here back saying No, then after 14 days, the person can buy whatever they want plus ammo. The on-line information must by law be destroyed.

So, any sensible person, can see the problem here. You can walk into a gun shop, buy what you want, nobody and I mean nobody knows what you have at home.

No Judge is going to sign off on ordering every home, flat, dwelling, bunker, shed, garage to be searched. Even if you found a Judge to do that then it would take years and years, given the USA size by land mass. Plus for the majority of law abiding citizens you would be breaking their consitutional rights leading to challenges in the Supreme Court.

Basically, the horse has bolted so to speak. In the USA you cannot ban or request people to hand over their firearms or explosives. It wouldnt be legal or feesible to enforce on any level. New York did bring in allot of changes and requirements, most northern states have. But try implenting those changes in southern states would more than likely take the US back to another civil war. Plus, nobody searched New Your city homes, they relied on people doing the right thing and handing over full-auto firearms. But you can be sure allot didnt and have them still to this day.

In a nutshell, the UK knows who has what legally held firearms and can remove them if need be, the USA does not and it wouldn't be legal to remove them unless you broke the law and became a felon.

PS. There is no situation whereby I would shoot a Grizz unless I knew my life was in immeadiate danger. Its there space, not mine, I an illegal in their space so to speak. But we getting on good, so far.

[Euler]

I've come face to face twice with a bear, once with my daughter.

They look at you as though it's like, OMG not another human why don't you go away.

Would be a bit different if it were her mother and babies I guess.

[Euler]

Liberty, freedom and the right to bear arms are all big motivators for Americans.

If you put a rotting cabbage as candidate, they would vote for it if it echoed those sentiments.

[sionascaig]

Interesting article in papers yesterday about a $24m dollar bet on Trump to win (on Polymarkets)... This pushed down the price. Also, a lot of "dodgy" polls have started to appear with Republican sponsors (or hidden sponsors) says Trump has 4 to 5pt lead in key battleground states - they are way out of line with the independent polls...

Trump has been referencing both the betting markets and dodgy polls to say he is clearly in the lead and all but won the election.

==> if indeed the market price has been pushed down then sounds like a value lay to me )

[jimibt]

==> if indeed the market price has been pushed down then sounds like a value lay to me )

it could be. however, (devils advocate) the only issue here is that a value bet has to have context with other bets around it - i.e. it becomes a value bet but only if part of a wider raft of bets..

[greenmark]

I've come face to face twice with a bear, once with my daughter.

They look at you as though it's like, OMG not another human why don't you go away.

Would be a bit different if it were her mother and babies I guess.

Too right. Geese, sheep, cows get very agitated if you get too close to their offspring.
A protective mum grizzly is a scary concept.

[Frogmella]

Interesting article in papers yesterday about a $24m dollar bet on Trump to win (on Polymarkets)... This pushed down the price. Also, a lot of "dodgy" polls have started to appear with Republican sponsors (or hidden sponsors) says Trump has 4 to 5pt lead in key battleground states - they are way out of line with the independent polls...

Trump has been referencing both the betting markets and dodgy polls to say he is clearly in the lead and all but won the election.

==> if indeed the market price has been pushed down then sounds like a value lay to me )

Here's the only "poll" that matters.
The Ham-Sandwich's biggest podcast garnered 717 thousand views over 3 weeks
Trump's got 33 MILLION in 2 days.
For the Ham-Sandwich to win, the vote-rigging would have to be on an exponentially greater scale than the industrial-level cheating that occurred in 2020. If I were an American I would be prepping for the civil-war. Socialists don't just give up power gracefully.