Have looked at FBref before. Quite a few out there when you take a deeper dive.andy28 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2025 11:19 pmI use this site https://fbref.com/en/. When I say scrape I mean I just load the pages I want via Data, From Web into excel. Then just refresh each time you want it updated.
I am still not sure about using Xg tho as I looked at Arsenal Spurs match and it's saying the XG will be around 1.6, I am not sure that will be the case. I know you have to look at other data for the full picture. I am thinking of trying a binary method into Xg as that will factor out outlier 6-3 score lines
I think I will concentrate on 1 league as well, I think confidence is important, I see teams that are level with a few minutes to go but manage to pull off a win. I watched the A league match last night and Western Utd scored 2 goals in extra time to win 3-4, They did they same thing at Perth down 2-1 they got up 2-3, 2 goals in extra time. You could see the momentum shifting and at 3-3 I knew they would score again, but more importantly so did they players.
A few years back I had a confidence meter for the NRL that worked quite well. So might have to dust it off and adjust for football
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I just use xG as an another indicator, but with this current project, it seems to show better accuracy than the normal league form tables everyone else seems to use. The guys I mentioned before touched on ZIP (zero inflated poisson model) as a way to counter the outliers.
Ahem...I'll be leaning on good ole GPT to solve it. (won't take long, it's solved pretty much solved everything else I've done in excel)
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The advantage of specialising, as you say, are the nuances of what certain teams do and any other patterns/trends a team might show that some models may not factor in.
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A confidence meter sounds like a good idea, definitely worth dusting that one off.
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One decision I would need to make when choosing a league to specialise in, is, do I choose one where the average league goals are high? (Premier/Bundesliga) or ones that are low? (Serie A/League 1/League 2).
I'm leaning towards the low scoring leagues as they get over looked and it's possible to create out an edge in the various markets.