Anyone else see Psychoff's Twitter post about his PnL

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Revenant
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"This weekend marked the end of the 'Premium Charge' era on Betfair and the beginning of the new 'Expert Fee' era. It's a positive development for people like me whose annual earnings have declined over the years.

It has been 20 years since I started trading on Betfair. During this time, especially while living in a country where Betfair was banned, I used a number of different accounts so numerous that even I have lost count. This account is my personal one, which I opened after moving to the UK. I've traded in nearly 100,000 markets and earned an average profit of roughly £10 per market.

To achieve consistent profits on Betfair (or with any bookmaker), you need an advantage that sets you apart positively from the rest. This could be many things: knowledge, experience, a tool you use, and so on. In a battlefield where everyone has a knife, to survive, you either need armour or a machine gun in your hands. :)"
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Not knocking him cos for anyone to win on Betfair it takes some skill, but the £10 a market is far off the football screenshots he used to post with £2K wins and almost 100,000 markets can only be achieved by botting.

Also stating those profits are low because it wasn't his only account is pretty stupid thing to admit in public as all my previous accounts have been linked and aggregated and any sign of avoidance is taken very seriously by Betfair in my experience.
mathsnerd
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Wasn't he charging £20k for 1-1 tuition not so long ago?
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Kai
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Revenant wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 3:08 pm
almost 100,000 markets can only be achieved by botting
It's possible to do it manually as well if you get involved in several markets per football match

Usually indicative of scalping approaches but other approaches can reach similar numbers too
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Naffman
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I imagine he’s racked up a lot of markets for commission generating purposes…but yes not very smart to admit you’ve had many accounts.
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Andriy
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Kai wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 5:05 pm
Revenant wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 3:08 pm
almost 100,000 markets can only be achieved by botting
It's possible to do it manually as well if you get involved in several markets per football match
Usually indicative of scalping approaches but other approaches can reach similar numbers too
Based on an old interview he did, he moved to UK 2016 so i presume that is the timeframe of above screenshot. Also said he would be looking at pure automation only with his Scalpy bot, so that tallies. (It's a CB blogpost/interview, so make whatever you like of validity).
Revenant
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mathsnerd wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 4:16 pm
Wasn't he charging £20k for 1-1 tuition not so long ago?
It'd explain the £2K screenshots he was posting rather than posting the £500K profits since 2016 ;)

If he had some scalpy bot it'd explain the number of markets.
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ShaunWhite
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It's £1m net and already paid 350k on that account. With poor Betfair accounts info for 10-20yo accounts, a lot of internal time to prepare a litigation for comm avoidance. For maybe £40-50k less unclaimable costs? They make about 20k and lose him.

Or if he knows it's coming, do a trade. Has he walked in with 40 grand and his patronage hoping they won't sue for 50+costs (and they see 20k of it) + losing his custom.

He's a smart guy and does numbers, it'll be something. He didn't sound drunk.
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Kai
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Don't think he needs to explain anything really

Can't a man briefly reflect on his journey and be content with his achievements without people opening hater threads :D

Fair play for transparency considering he's a foreigner... but we can reasonably assume that most (if not all) long-standing traders have seen their returns diminish over the years, due to more competition and less liquidity etc
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wearthefoxhat
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Kai wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2025 3:41 am

Can't a man briefly reflect on his journey and be content with his achievements without people opening hater threads :D
Refer to one of my posts about crab mentality.

Reckon Pyschoff's strategy will still hold up, maybe even more so, due to the extended added time rule.
BFDon
Posts: 104
Joined: Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:56 pm

Kai wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2025 3:41 am
Don't think he needs to explain anything really

Can't a man briefly reflect on his journey and be content with his achievements without people opening hater threads :D
Not sure it's a hater thread just questioning how his PC figures tally with some of the screenshots he's put out in the past. I would have expected his lifetime figures to be higher but without knowing how he's funneled bets into BF you can't tell. I have nothing against him, i suspect he's a great trader especially as there's a few on here who vouch for him. Not followed him recently but he seemed to only post up big wins and justify it by saying in other professions you'd usually other share your top moments. Except betting is such a game of chance with big variance so a 20k win doesn't tell you much or even if it was a value bet. Then to sell courses is a bit questionable to me (but he had completely valid reasonings for needing to do this so I understand that). That Lifetime Snap says a lot more about his ability that the individual big wins, still very impressive if not at the heights I thought
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jamesedwards
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BFDon wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2025 11:05 am
Kai wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2025 3:41 am
Don't think he needs to explain anything really

Can't a man briefly reflect on his journey and be content with his achievements without people opening hater threads :D
Not sure it's a hater thread just questioning how his PC figures tally with some of the screenshots he's put out in the past. I would have expected his lifetime figures to be higher but without knowing how he's funneled bets into BF you can't tell. I have nothing against him, i suspect he's a great trader especially as there's a few on here who vouch for him. Not followed him recently but he seemed to only post up big wins and justify it by saying in other professions you'd usually other share your top moments. Except betting is such a game of chance with big variance so a 20k win doesn't tell you much or even if it was a value bet. Then to sell courses is a bit questionable to me (but he had completely valid reasonings for needing to do this so I understand that). That Lifetime Snap says a lot more about his ability that the individual big wins, still very impressive if not at the heights I thought
Most likely commission churning to stay in the 40% higher rate, plus marginally improving overall nett profit. I imagine almost every successful trader will have been doing this.
Revenant
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Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2024 2:09 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2025 11:15 pm
It's £1m net and already paid 350k on that account. With poor Betfair accounts info for 10-20yo accounts, a lot of internal time to prepare a litigation for comm avoidance. For maybe £40-50k less unclaimable costs? They make about 20k and lose him.

Or if he knows it's coming, do a trade. Has he walked in with 40 grand and his patronage hoping they won't sue for 50+costs (and they see 20k of it) + losing his custom.

He's a smart guy and does numbers, it'll be something. He didn't sound drunk.
It's £871K gross, £354K fees so £517K net for 2016?.

Making out he's loads of previous winning accounts is a bit like the kids that used to come back from the school holidays and tell you about the birds they shagged on holiday in Blackpool.
Revenant
Posts: 16
Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2024 2:09 pm

BFDon wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2025 11:05 am
Kai wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2025 3:41 am
Don't think he needs to explain anything really

Can't a man briefly reflect on his journey and be content with his achievements without people opening hater threads :D
Not sure it's a hater thread just questioning how his PC figures tally with some of the screenshots he's put out in the past. I would have expected his lifetime figures to be higher but without knowing how he's funneled bets into BF you can't tell. I have nothing against him, i suspect he's a great trader especially as there's a few on here who vouch for him. Not followed him recently but he seemed to only post up big wins and justify it by saying in other professions you'd usually other share your top moments. Except betting is such a game of chance with big variance so a 20k win doesn't tell you much or even if it was a value bet. Then to sell courses is a bit questionable to me (but he had completely valid reasonings for needing to do this so I understand that). That Lifetime Snap says a lot more about his ability that the individual big wins, still very impressive if not at the heights I thought
If you don't agree with the forum party line you'll always get accused of being a "hater"/"racist"/"etc" I won't take it personally just seems to be the go to response ;)
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jamesedwards
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Revenant wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2025 2:24 pm

It's £871K gross, £354K fees so £517K net for 2016?.
Neither of the 'Commission' or 'Premium Charges' figures reflect actual fees paid. They are the figures Betfair use to calculate his weekly PC. 'Commission' is actually his commission generated. 'Premium Charges' is actually the amount of PC he would have paid if he had always paid PC at his current rate.

Therefore the actual total fees paid will likely be a very different number.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9920
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Revenant wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2025 2:24 pm
It's £871K gross, £354K fees so £517K net for 2016?.
Thats the figure for the lifetime of the account.
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