Charting Analysis (Paralysis!)

We were all new to Bet Angel once. Ask any question you like here and fellow forum members promise not to laugh. Betfair trading made simple.
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Blondie
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Kai wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2025 2:23 pm
Basic BF charts have always been sufficient for me, think they paint a good enough story

Matchstick charts tho are invaluable for my use case but not really a requirement, most important thing overall is the matched volume column
Thanks Kai. Yes I am finding the same. BF chart just gives me some context. It's no use for knowing what the future holds but it seems to lend a SLIGHT bias to what I think may happen. If something has been strong all day, it is more likely to stay strong. Thats my logic anyway. Trouble is, I keep being proved wrong,but then realised thats after 2 minutes when everything seems to go totally mental with no regard for past trends/strength etc! But yes, I definitely do not trust any technical indicators for sports markets if they were taken from financials. I dont use MAs or anything like that, I am only really interested in ranges/support/resistance, but i can see that has much less bearing on things than it does in financials.
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Blondie
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Kai wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2025 2:39 pm
Blondie wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2025 9:24 pm
If I am trading the 10 min to 5 min period, should I have a 5 minute chart, whereas when trading to 2 mins (or beyond) should I move to shorter ranges? Or do most of the proper traders here just have a chart they use for the whole pre off period?
Better to simply ask others what their perfect market looks like, that should tell you so much more :)
Not sure if that's sarcasm or not :D
Let's find out....

Could anybody who knows how to do this stuff please tell me what their perfect market looks like? :roll:
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ShaunWhite
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Blondie wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 12:44 pm
Could anybody who knows how to do this stuff please tell me what their perfect market looks like? :roll:
Shed loads of money and one-way sentiment.
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Blondie
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2025 5:07 pm
All good stuff but he's on the trading 101. As yet there's no 'strategy'. I think you'd agree that for an absolute beginner, understanding the story being told by the ladder is already information overload without bells and whistles to consider.
Thanks for that but I am actually not totally new. Feel free to overload me with bells and whistles :D.
I've traded using other software. On and off for many years in several sports including horses. I left pre-off horses alone a long while ago. I cam back to it briefly and could see i needed to give it a lot more time and dedication than I could at the time. Unfortunately life/work meant that couldn't happen for several years but finally I now can dedicate some time to it properly. And again the markets have jumped up in difficulty from what I remember even just a year or two ago.

I've traded non sports markets too so I understand most of the general trading stuff, psychological issues, technical indicators and price dynamics.... Not that the technical stuff has any use here.

I am trying to find out if I can make enough sense of the 2025 ladders to take small greens out here and there. Very low goals. Even lower expectations. But one thing I am not short of is determination. I know that's not enough on its own but I also know in any type of trading, without that you may as well not bother. I remember a time when 'scalping' could quite easily net a few quid in many sports including racing. Seems obvious thats not the case any more!

Today it looks like the only way anyone can make consistent profits is with some ability to know the direction a ladder will go more often than not and netting 3-5 ticks from those. More if big momentum builds. Scraping a tick here and there seems not just impossible but dangerous now. I have several strategies/ideas to look for but still dive in too quick sometimes, impatience or just bad discipline. Old habits die hard. I'm working on it.

Hopefully its clear that I am under no illusions. It looks to me like the 'easy times' are long gone, and the only really successful people in these markets today are the people who learned when the markets were easier and adapted to keep their edge over time. I'd love to know if anyone has started this in the past year and is doing well, but maybe its best I dont know the answer to that just now :D

My current focus is to suss this 'order flow' business. I find myself watching the charts too much when I know the most valuable info is in the ladders - traded range and matching orders. Again - old habits....
Last edited by Blondie on Mon Jan 13, 2025 3:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Blondie
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 1:21 pm
Blondie wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 12:44 pm
Could anybody who knows how to do this stuff please tell me what their perfect market looks like? :roll:
Shed loads of money and one-way sentiment.
thats helpful. The shed loads part mainly

Here's a question I would be interested to hear answers from experienced pre off traders:

If you sat and watched 20 markets in a day, how many would you trade and how many would you sit out?

I know the answers will vary depending on strategy but for those trading moves i'd love to know the ratio of sitting out versus getting involved.
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ShaunWhite
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Initially you might just have a couple of setups you're looking for and that might come up every 2 or 3 races, or less. As you get more experience there's more situations you're capable of exploiting and so might find something in every market. Ie you might start with action near crossovers, or 2.0 or range breakouts but when you've nailed that you might add other setups where you know you have an edge.

Just remember it's easier to prevent losses by sitting out than it is to gain money by getting involved.
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Kai
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Blondie wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 12:44 pm
Kai wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2025 2:39 pm
Blondie wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2025 9:24 pm
If I am trading the 10 min to 5 min period, should I have a 5 minute chart, whereas when trading to 2 mins (or beyond) should I move to shorter ranges? Or do most of the proper traders here just have a chart they use for the whole pre off period?
Better to simply ask others what their perfect market looks like, that should tell you so much more :)
Not sure if that's sarcasm or not :D
Let's find out....

Could anybody who knows how to do this stuff please tell me what their perfect market looks like? :roll:
Not sarcastic at all, I asked the same question once before : viewtopic.php?t=21055

I can see now how it can be viewed sarcastically, sorry about that. I often forget to account for innate British cynicism :D Text doesn't always convey nuances or subtleties as clearly as spoken words, but it's a challenge I enjoy so no way I'm letting AI have all the fun ;)

Perhaps you could frame a new thread in a similar way but for racing only, and ask your specific questions to anyone that actively trades the market. Worst case nobody replies but there is some good upside too if you gain insight or someone overshares etc.
weemac
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BF charts are fine for general flavour - I always look at them but don't trade off them (except about 1% of the time).

All the TA averages, bands, indicators, etc. are a waste of time, imo - even in financial markets. Every time I see folk on youtube talking about oversold divergence, MACDs, bollingers etc. I just look up at the historical/current price action and think "Well, duh!...any fool can see that already without using the indicators!"

A price line, or candlesticks, volume, and maybe one tight moving average would be perfectly sufficient.

Just realised that Shaun has written pretty much everything I think about charts. :lol:
Lynskey888
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As soon as “perfect market” was mentioned I thought of that thread. One of my all-time favourites on here!
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Blondie
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 2:09 pm
Ie you might start with action near crossovers, or 2.0 or range breakouts but when you've nailed that you might add other setups where you know you have an edge.
That's part of my frustration. I have two:

1. My own failures - this is something only I can fix. Main one being trading every market I open.
2. The one that bothers me most - not knowing which strategies still work, if any (other than just mastering direction of moves). You mentioned some examples. range breakouts - I remember in the past ranges were very useful. now they seem to mean nothing as every time i trade based on it staying in range it doens't. but when i trade based on breakout, it stays inside! Frustrating. clearly i havent found out how to know which is more likely yet. XOs - i seem to see as many fly through as i see bounce or stall. In the past I remember those being powerful resistance to movements but seems less like that now
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 2:09 pm
Just remember it's easier to prevent losses by sitting out than it is to gain money by getting involved.
I can't forget that, every market teaches me it again ;)
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Blondie
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Kai wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 2:21 pm

I can see now how it can be viewed sarcastically, sorry about that. I often forget to account for innate British cynicism :D Text doesn't always convey nuances or subtleties as clearly as spoken words, but it's a challenge I enjoy so no way I'm letting AI have all the fun ;)
haha, no apology needed. I woudn't have been bothered if it was sarcasm! Just sussing out each of you wacky creatures :mrgreen:
Kai wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 2:21 pm
Perhaps you could frame a new thread in a similar way but for racing only, and ask your specific questions to anyone that actively trades the market. Worst case nobody replies but there is some good upside too if you gain insight or someone overshares etc.
That's a good idea. I am hesitant as i know the small number of people truly in the know here rely on that hard earned knowledge to eat, so it seems rude to ask anything really. I can see things have got a lot harder in these markets and i am sure thats reduced the number of peoiple who can actually do it properly, regularly. If i was one of those, I'd think twice about sharing much of what I had spent thousands of hours learning.

I have noticed Peter Webb's videos in pre off racing section of his youtube channel don't show him trading for many years now. And I see no courses seem to be happening. This suggests to me things have got so much harder that its either impossibe to teach (i bet that's at least part of the reason) and also that maybe showing how he trades now would give too much away. I am not one of these who thinks he or anyone else has some kind of duty to help anyone, especially when its zero sum and they could be opposing him in the markets. We all have to forge our own way to success or the poor house, whichever one we belong in. :D Pretty sure I know where I belong already but I am giving this enough effort to find out for sure if I might be wrong. One can pray!

Maybe I'll try a thread like you suggested. I can think of a few questions that are niggling me, most of which don't give a lot away but may help me indirectly by giving me ideas on where to focus my learning and practice. Thanks
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Kai
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Lynskey888 wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 3:52 pm
“perfect market”
These days everyone's answer would probably just be "any cricket market" :lol:

Or T20 more specifically!
Lynskey888
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:) Indeed. If you arrive on the exchange with no firm ideas about what you’re going to trade and search for high volume, high liquidity markets, you’ll end up on the cricket eventually.

OP, I really recommend that “perfect market” thread. Best of luck to you.
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ShaunWhite
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Books : viewtopic.php?t=78

Also viewtopic.php?p=139203

And literally thousands of threads full of people giving their time and knowledge generously, search for 'newbie'.

fyi the "i'd think twice about helping people" stuff won't endear you with the sort of people who are likely to be the helpful.
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Blondie
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Lynskey888 wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2025 8:03 pm
:) Indeed. If you arrive on the exchange with no firm ideas about what you’re going to trade and search for high volume, high liquidity markets, you’ll end up on the cricket eventually.

OP, I really recommend that “perfect market” thread. Best of luck to you.
thanks, I did read that thread end to end.
first thing that shocked me about it was how it seemed most pre off traders seem to prefer very equal markets without a clear favourite. That amazed me, i have always preferred races with a strong favourite, makes me think i am missing something bigger than first thought!
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