Fundamental Question about Trading Outright Markets

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Kai
Posts: 7016
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Fugazi wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2025 2:46 pm
You're all wasting your time responding 😅
Haven't you responded twice as well 🤔
Fugazi
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Kai wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:38 pm
Fugazi wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2025 2:46 pm
You're all wasting your time responding 😅
Haven't you responded twice as well 🤔
Can't help myself
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ruthlessimon
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Sounds like arbing, profits like arbing, restrictions like arbing... but sure, let’s pretend it's not arbing.
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Kai
Posts: 7016
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Fugazi wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:58 pm
Kai wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:38 pm
Fugazi wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2025 2:46 pm
You're all wasting your time responding 😅
Haven't you responded twice as well 🤔
Can't help myself
Giving people the benefit of the doubt should be the default stance really, unless there are glaring red flags

Otherwise, what's the point?
Fugazi
Posts: 783
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

Kai wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2025 6:46 pm
Fugazi wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:58 pm
Kai wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:38 pm


Haven't you responded twice as well 🤔
Can't help myself
Giving people the benefit of the doubt should be the default stance really, unless there are glaring red flags

Otherwise, what's the point?
Otherwise, what's the point? - I agree. Makes for a discussion anyway.

But this is clearly a ''get people to inbox you'' ploy.

Blokes been profitable over 20 years and is asking what a value bet is and hasn't responded since
Anbell
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Fugazi wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2025 9:14 pm
Blokes been profitable over 20 years and is asking what a value bet is and hasn't responded since
He's busy communicating with math departments who dropped everything to answer his question
Fugazi
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Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

Anbell wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:07 am
Fugazi wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2025 9:14 pm
Blokes been profitable over 20 years and is asking what a value bet is and hasn't responded since
He's busy communicating with math departments who dropped everything to answer his question
Nah can't see any glaring red flags
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Kai
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Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist :)

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csewell1987
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Blue2018
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Joined: Sat Jan 18, 2025 2:06 am

This is a reply to all the comments :

First of all thank you for your replies. I wasn’t sure if I would get any.

They were very interesting indeed.

First let me make clear I’m most certainly NOT offering any kind of service!
One piece of information I thought I could omit was that I believe I only have a few years to live at most. And I have no need for money whatsoever. Im in the process of giving away money if anything.

Second I’m really impressed by the Chat summary provided by Euler!

Third if I had had any doubts about whether I should carry on writing to maths departments and to have a comprehensive study you guys would most certainly have stopped them.
And now I can include a couple of your replies to show others why I really do have no choice.

Fourth I get the impression Kai seems closest to what I need to understand.

Fifth -to the person who seemed to be mocking me saying that in 20 years I still don’t know what value is -
I can make a profit from a Bet365 account so so easily.
Thats what the 20-25 years has taught me. What I dont understand is how I can place such a high number of bets and still make money.
I know what value is and in a typical year can find about 40 value selections in outright markets.
But I place 1000s of bets !
And make a living. Thats what I struggle with. I’m actually 95% certain you don’t need value in outright markets but I want 100% certainty one way or the other.


Sixth
Fwiw I started betting on outrights in 97-98 after seeing in February 97 that bookmakers used to routinely offer place value in outright markets so that it was ridiculously easy to make money from outrights by placing each way accumulators throughout the year.
It was while I was doing that I very slowly began to realise that even relatively unsophisticated trading techniques could possibly give you an edge on the win markets.

At first I was extremely sceptical and made a great many mistakes and in fact I’m still learning .

But one thing I’m certain of is that outright markets are very very easy to trade. Most people I believe could do it.

Seventh
When I say trading I mean placing bets on a market in such a way that you’re happy with your position in that market at that point and knowing you will place further bets in that market at a later date.
That may not actually be trading ? But it’s what I mean by the word in this context.

Thanks again for uour input . I’m going to write to 2000 maths departments instead of 1200 now.
And they will be proper letters not emails . My goodness the price of postage stamps these days !
Fugazi
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Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

I'm surprised youve managed to keep enough accounts on book makers, apart from 365 I get gubbed so quick.

Still don't know what to make of this

I'll forever be cynical, best of luck if this is real 👍
sionascaig
Posts: 1526
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

There really isn't any new "maths" to explore here - can't see them being interested.

If you are able to create +ve EV situations from bookie offerings, the people most likely to be interested are the bookies - either they are aware that it can happen or not...

And "if not" then they will have plenty of pricing / stats folk that can help you look into. And who knows maybe can get some consultancy fees on it...

A university Stats department is also unlikely to be interested other than something to chat about in the common room or try and generate interest in stats for their students.

But whatever you are doing, it just comes down to pricing & bookie offerings.

Good job though if you have found something they are not aware of!
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ShaunWhite
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Blue2018 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2025 9:52 am
I’m actually 95% certain you don’t need value in outright markets but I want 100% certainty one way or the other.
You're 95% sure. The maths is 100% sure.
I don't know why anyone is talking about maths departments it's betting 101.
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csewell1987
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csewell1987 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2025 8:40 am
https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/bsp-profits/

Maybe he is behind this...
Going back to this, there is seemingly 2 years worth of data here and the BSP has never been beaten once as they take the BSP yet show profit. Luck over a 2 year sample?
Fugazi
Posts: 783
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

csewell1987 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2025 3:20 pm
csewell1987 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2025 8:40 am
https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/bsp-profits/

Maybe he is behind this...
Going back to this, there is seemingly 2 years worth of data here and the BSP has never been beaten once as they take the BSP yet show profit. Luck over a 2 year sample?
Used to follow him for some time. Gave up as was making better ROI trading myself and figured his edge would get smaller as his popularity grew
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