How would you view these charts?

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Blondie
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Bad day today. Every race I touched went the 'wrong way'. I have had good days so I do sometimes feel like I can read what will happen. I am started to feel paralysed between two ideas. I wonder if anyone has been through this.

In the past i just used the BF charts and got an opinion of each.

General direction upwards - I'd label as drifting or having no support
General direction downwards - I'd label as strong
Neither - Sideways or 'irrelevant' to any trade ideas

After watching tons of youtube videos (all PW, no time for anyone else!) I now feel between a rock and a hard place.
I took a pic today to try and explain it, its not the best example but it should do.

Image

My old way of reading that would be:

1. Very strong support
2. Sideways
3,4,5 All drifting/no support in market

So I would plan to back the favourite. But now all I can think about is how the favourites chart is bouncing off 1.5 so it will probably drift up from there. I daren't back it in case its on support, i daren't lay it in case the view of it being well supported is correct and it carries on getting backed near post time. Like I said - STUCK!

To make it worse, today every single time i did make a decision, the other one was proved right and mine was proved wrong when it frikkin ran away in the other direction! Over and over again.

Would be interested to hear anyone's thoughts on the mental struggle, or the chart reading

thanks
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ShaunWhite
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Blondie wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2025 8:15 pm
To make it worse, today every single time i did make a decision, the other one was proved right and mine was proved wrong when it frikkin ran away in the other direction! Over and over again.

Would be interested to hear anyone's thoughts on the mental struggle, or the chart reading
How many live markets have you done now?

It's hard to tell what would happen just from those charts. Decisions are the sum of many factors with the current orders being the most useful.

But getting it wrong isn't a big deal if you react quickly and lose less when you're wrong than you win when you're right.

If pushed to make a decision I'd probably lay that fav at 1.50-1.51 ish and be prepared to get out fast if it breaks through. If it bounces then secure a few ticks profit, move the break even point down a bit, and see what happens from there.
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Blondie
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Thanks. Yes I understand nobody can say 'x will happen here' from those charts. Just trying to explain why I feel so stuck between the two thoughts about it being strong all day versus it being stuck above 1.5

Your reply helped though thx. I thought of doing that and have done a few times and it worked out ok so long as i get out quick if it goes against me.

One of the other big factors I think is the time before the off. I am trying to limit my trades by exiting at 2 mins no matter what. Trouble is, when I don't do that I often make some decent greens, but then occasionally get badly punished! I'd love to know whether the pros tend to focus on 10+, 5+, 2+ or under 2. I am sure there will be variation and different preferences but i'd just be curious to know what people are doing and whether they religiously separate the periods by closing out or only opening after their window starts. I'm not totally convinced it's the best approach to separate like that as I often find after 2 mins I have a better idea of what will happen than before 2. And I am only using charts and range ideas at the moment. I still dont focus on orders ('order flow') except on the odd occasion where i think of it.
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ShaunWhite
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Blondie wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2025 1:29 pm
whether they religiously separate the periods
No, if there's an opportunity it doesn't matter when it is.
Blondie wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2025 1:29 pm
And I am only using charts and range ideas at the moment. I still dont focus on orders ('order flow') except on the odd occasion where i think of it.
That's the problem.
Euler wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2025 3:39 pm
Really you should have a strategy then look to a chart to see if it supports that strategy. Not look at a chart for a strategy as such.
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Blondie
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2025 4:07 pm
Blondie wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2025 1:29 pm
whether they religiously separate the periods
No, if there's an opportunity it doesn't matter when it is.
Interesting. I watch a lot of youtube videos but they span such a long time period that it's a bit tricky to work out which are still relevant and which aren't. Maybe none of them are! I have heard Peter say things like 'always exit at 2 mins' so I am trying that. thats not quite what you maybe meant above. Youre probably saying you can enter any time you like if the right opportunity is there. I am more thinking about how long to stay in a position. I am usually entering a trade well before, maybe 5-7 minutes out. So trying to get out at 2 as it does go pretty haywire which sometimes helps but often hurts.
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2025 4:07 pm
Blondie wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2025 1:29 pm
And I am only using charts and range ideas at the moment. I still dont focus on orders ('order flow') except on the odd occasion where i think of it.
That's the problem.
I see. I have tried to look up 'order flow' but there seems to be very little info on it. If its just the process of watching orders/queues, whos moving money up/down to get matched etc, then I think I do understand it. Maybe I should do more of that. my approach at the mo is bascially to assess charts and ladders, take a position on which i think will move, and then keep watching for those signals to change. if not, hold. (til 2 mins). I find it hard to fit in time to focus on matching orders on one ladder when taking such a broad view, maybe that means my broad view must stop. I used to do this same thing and it does seem harder to rely on now

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2025 4:07 pm
Euler wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2025 3:39 pm
Really you should have a strategy then look to a chart to see if it supports that strategy. Not look at a chart for a strategy as such.
well that is actually what I am doing. I have strategies in mind and look at the charts to see if any fit.
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Euler
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On this particular example the favourite is at such a short price most of the money in the market will be on the favourite and that will dictate the prices and flow of the others. Probably over 80% of the money in this market will be on the favourite. So your focus is really on that.
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Blondie
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Appreciate you probably have very little spare time so maybe skimmed quickly above but I never considered trading any others, only the favourite:

"So I would plan to back the favourite. But now all I can think about is how the favourites chart is bouncing off 1.5 so it will probably drift up from there. I daren't back it in case its on support, i daren't lay it in case the view of it being well supported is correct and it carries on getting backed near post time. Like I said - STUCK!!"

It wasn't which runner to focus on, but which idea to focus on! (Maybe neither as Shaun was i think saying - i.e. order flow rather than charts.)
Thanks
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ShaunWhite
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Blondie wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2025 1:31 pm
I am usually entering a trade well before, maybe 5-7 minutes out. So trying to get out at 2 as it does go pretty haywire which sometimes helps but often hurts.
Wow you must rate your powers of prediction, imo that's a loooong time to sit on a position. How about trying to figure out the next 10-20s before looking at 5mins away? Just small ins and outs making a few ticks each time.
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Blondie
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I've tried every approach in the book! well, except using order flow for entering exiting
I am just trying out this way to see if i do any better and the early signs werenot great but better than many attempts in past.
I didn't describe it very well, I am not in a position for minutes and minutes like that. but I am trying to take a longer view up to 10 minutes out, using charts, and doing something i never did before which is to let it go against me a fair bit more than i used to. Not a silly amount but more than enough to stop getting knocked out by the usual ups and downs.

Trying to make it a win lose and sit and wait to see what happens. I got more winners than losers but I find i get nervous while its going good and cut profits shorter than I do on losers.
Years ago i used to do exactly what you said, in and out for a tick or two here and there. I did it a lot on golf/soccer/cricket/tennis, any big money events. I find that harder now and want to crack the moves so decided on an approach which could test my 'powers of prediction'. I am not giving you the results, you know them anyway, but thats a better explanation of what I'm doin!
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ShaunWhite
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Blondie wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2025 1:31 pm
I have tried to look up 'order flow' but there seems to be very little info on it.
You could talk to GPT about it.....
Describe order flow in the context of Betfair ladder trading.....

Understanding Order Flow in Betfair Ladder Trading

In Betfair ladder trading, order flow refers to the movement of money within the market—how bets are being placed, matched, or pulled at different price levels on the ladder interface. By analyzing order flow, traders aim to anticipate short-term price movements and position themselves advantageously.

Key Elements of Order Flow

1. Market Depth (Liquidity)
The ladder shows available money at each price point.

Large amounts at a price level may act as a support or resistance, while thin liquidity suggests potential for rapid movement.

2. Matched vs. Unmatched Bets
Matched bets indicate where money has been accepted, showing genuine interest at that price.

Unmatched bets reflect traders trying to enter at better prices.

3. Money Coming In and Out (Bet Queues)
Watching the rate at which money enters or disappears from the queue helps traders gauge strength or weakness in price movement.

Sudden removal of large amounts could indicate a spoof (a misleading order intended to manipulate perception).

4. Momentum and Reversals

If money is consistently being matched at shorter odds (lower prices), the price is likely to move down.

If lay bets are being matched aggressively at higher odds, the price may rise.

A stalling order flow (price hesitating despite bets being matched) can signal a possible reversal.

5. Traders vs. Punters
Order flow also helps identify trader-driven movement (quick, short-term changes) vs. genuine punter-driven betting (more gradual, sustained flow based on actual event probabilities).

How Traders Use Order Flow

Scalping: Identifying where money is being placed heavily and placing trades accordingly, aiming for a 1-2 tick profit.

Momentum Trading: Jumping in when a strong order flow suggests continued movement in one direction.

Support & Resistance Trading: Spotting key levels where large unmatched bets repeatedly hold the price.

Spoof Detection: Identifying fake liquidity meant to deceive traders into thinking the market is moving in a particular direction.

By closely observing how money moves in real-time, Betfair ladder traders can develop an edge, making better decisions based on supply, demand, and intent behind market activity.
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Blondie
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I didnt mean i have tried to find definitions of order flow. I am aware of AI and it has its uses.
AI doesnt provide any 'community', something that used to be valued. More importantly it doesnt save time unless I am actually looking for something without any nuance,opinion,points of view, personal experience etc.
AI is an aggregation of 'stuff people have written in the past'. I have the internet for that, and the internet is chock full of BS and chavvy little cretins pretending they have a clue in the markets. I am here because this forum is where the real gems are. So their opinion is what i look for, not a robot that hoovered up everything anyone ever said and hands it to me in a bland neutral definition. How to trade order flow isn't the same 'how people trade order flow' and it sure aint 'what is order flow'.
When there is an AI that can sift out bull shit and lying mofos, I'll be all over it i promise. :mrgreen:

When i said "I have tried to look up 'order flow' but there seems to be very little info on it." I shouldve said "on the forum, versus other stuff like charts and indicators etc".
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ShaunWhite
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Blondie wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2025 6:39 pm
AI is an aggregation of 'stuff people have written in the past'. I have the internet for that, and the internet is chock full of BS and chavvy little cretins pretending they have a clue in the markets.
It's not like that now, newer versions are far better at reasoning and it's certainly not just a fancy Google. And frankly it's just easier to ask it to agrigate information if that's what you want rather than doing it myself.

Success in trading, either manual or algorithmic, imo comes down to curiosity, creativity and unginuity, and common sense. There's no prescriptive answer as the nature of the markets means it would be self defeating. Every successful trader I've met does it their way and none are the same. That's quite an eye opener as beginners tend to think there's a specific formula for success.

I think the step before finding a strategy is to define your approach and establish a methodology for exploring it. Eg how will it be executed and how will the outcomes be assessed to refine that execution. Most things will start off as losers so it's about how to make the continual refinement as efficient as possible.

Rigor is important, our propensity to recentism means doing it by gut feeling or what happened yesterday is neigh on impossible. Your bet history is your best source of info, with that you look at the consequences of backing or laying first, in what price ranges and at what times. And you can do it in a way that's objective. It certainly gives you more information than looking at market totals from a month ago.

Everyone is different though, you just need to find your niche.
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Euler
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Blondie wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2025 4:22 pm
Appreciate you probably have very little spare time so maybe skimmed quickly above but I never considered trading any others, only the favourite:

"So I would plan to back the favourite. But now all I can think about is how the favourites chart is bouncing off 1.5 so it will probably drift up from there. I daren't back it in case its on support, i daren't lay it in case the view of it being well supported is correct and it carries on getting backed near post time. Like I said - STUCK!!"

It wasn't which runner to focus on, but which idea to focus on! (Maybe neither as Shaun was i think saying - i.e. order flow rather than charts.)
Thanks
This is how you should trade short priced favourites, generally speaking of course: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnmdwYxLWOs

When I turned up to a market I look at the charts and see if there is anything interesting going on and then switch to look at order flow to confirm it.

It's best to know this if you are looking at Betfair charts: -

https://www.betangel.com/betfair-charts/
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Euler
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2025 11:20 am
Blondie wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2025 6:39 pm
AI is an aggregation of 'stuff people have written in the past'. I have the internet for that, and the internet is chock full of BS and chavvy little cretins pretending they have a clue in the markets.
It's not like that now, newer versions are far better at reasoning and it's certainly not just a fancy Google. And frankly it's just easier to ask it to agrigate information if that's what you want rather than doing it myself.

Success in trading, either manual or algorithmic, imo comes down to curiosity, creativity and unginuity, and common sense. There's no prescriptive answer as the nature of the markets means it would be self defeating. Every successful trader I've met does it their way and none are the same. That's quite an eye opener as beginners tend to think there's a specific formula for success.

I think the step before finding a strategy is to define your approach and establish a methodology for exploring it. Eg how will it be executed and how will the outcomes be assessed to refine that execution. Most things will start off as losers so it's about how to make the continual refinement as efficient as possible.

Rigor is important, our propensity to recentism means doing it by gut feeling or what happened yesterday is neigh on impossible. Your bet history is your best source of info, with that you look at the consequences of backing or laying first, in what price ranges and at what times. And you can do it in a way that's objective. It certainly gives you more information than looking at market totals from a month ago.

Everyone is different though, you just need to find your niche.
There is a lot of rubbish on there still though. You often see it's gathered duff content and aggregated that. I find this quite often with Betfair trading, but in general I find it very useful. You just need to know what to ask and what to look for.

Sometimes is just googles a website and presents that as 'research' when it's nothing more than a big of marketing fluff.
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ShaunWhite
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Euler wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2025 12:54 pm
You just need to know what to ask and what to look for.
Augmented Intelligence would have been a better name for it.
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