Monitoring markets

[dsaunders1234]

Hi all,

I have been trying to get into the world of football trading for quite some time now to no avail. I honestly take my hat off to anyone succeeding at this whether it be part time or full. I have tried the normal roots, fixed odds betting through an external provider of betfair data.I have also tried the old pre match statistics but again the more I reflect upon these the more I feel that football is more what you see happening in front of you as opposed to what should happen. I have taken a step back and have spent the last few months monitoring markets. I am trying to do more of Rebelo type approach (optimistic I know) but more in terms of looking for prices which seem incorrect. I have decided to focus solely on the Match Odds market for now. I have looked at pre match favourites who maybe haven’t had the best start and are being dominated or don’t look threatening and looking for a price correction in the market. I am still trying to identify when in the match this price correction happens more quickly and if starting odds matter. I.e. Will a 1.4 favourite change differently to a 1.8 favourite. With the 1.8 favourite if they drift through the crossover point of 2 will that work in my favour as opposed to waiting for a 1.4 shot to move the same amount of ticks and if this will require more or less exposure time.

Another thing I have noticed is that odds on favourites who are dominating the match their odds stay stable particularly in the first half? Can anyone tell me why? Is it purely because everyone expects the goal to come? To my untrained mind this seems like a good opportunity to back as if the goal does not come there aren’t many tick that would go against you unless the underdog scores.

I also monitor laying the leading team when the losing team are on top and look threatening. Again unless the goal goes against you this seems a safeish play as the odds do not go drastically against you.

The more I monitor the more I see that I have been purely punting in the past. Lets say I was looking to lay the losing team when opposition were dominating or back a team who were on top when the match was tied I would take the bet and normally leave it run until the end of the match. Whereas I think (rightly or wrongly) that I should look to do this a. when it is value or b. at stages where the market is stable and the prices will not go against me too much (unless a red card or goal goes against me obviously). I think this is what Peter means by framing a trade and having a defined exit point. Again, I don’t know if what I am saying is accurate and I know that ultimately P+L is the only way to judge but am I making sense of the markets I see?

A huge thanks to anyone who reads or responds.

[jamesedwards]

To win consistently you need an edge over the market. Football is very difficult to find that edge because it is particularly popular and there will always be people with better inside info, greater trading expertise, and faster pics than you.

You could try specialising in very niche areas, like learning a particular foreign league inside out. Or you could try courtsiding and trading a match live. But sitting and trading random football matches based on live streams is going to be very difficult in my opinion.

[Michael5482]

Hi all,

I have been trying to get into the world of football trading for quite some time now to no avail. I honestly take my hat off to anyone succeeding at this whether it be part time or full. I have tried the normal roots, fixed odds betting through an external provider of betfair data.I have also tried the old pre match statistics but again the more I reflect upon these the more I feel that football is more what you see happening in front of you as opposed to what should happen. I have taken a step back and have spent the last few months monitoring markets. I am trying to do more of Rebelo type approach (optimistic I know) but more in terms of looking for prices which seem incorrect. I have decided to focus solely on the Match Odds market for now. I have looked at pre match favourites who maybe haven’t had the best start and are being dominated or don’t look threatening and looking for a price correction in the market. I am still trying to identify when in the match this price correction happens more quickly and if starting odds matter. I.e. Will a 1.4 favourite change differently to a 1.8 favourite. With the 1.8 favourite if they drift through the crossover point of 2 will that work in my favour as opposed to waiting for a 1.4 shot to move the same amount of ticks and if this will require more or less exposure time.

Another thing I have noticed is that odds on favourites who are dominating the match their odds stay stable particularly in the first half? Can anyone tell me why? Is it purely because everyone expects the goal to come? To my untrained mind this seems like a good opportunity to back as if the goal does not come there aren’t many tick that would go against you unless the underdog scores.

I also monitor laying the leading team when the losing team are on top and look threatening. Again unless the goal goes against you this seems a safeish play as the odds do not go drastically against you.

The more I monitor the more I see that I have been purely punting in the past. Lets say I was looking to lay the losing team when opposition were dominating or back a team who were on top when the match was tied I would take the bet and normally leave it run until the end of the match. Whereas I think (rightly or wrongly) that I should look to do this a. when it is value or b. at stages where the market is stable and the prices will not go against me too much (unless a red card or goal goes against me obviously). I think this is what Peter means by framing a trade and having a defined exit point. Again, I don’t know if what I am saying is accurate and I know that ultimately P+L is the only way to judge but am I making sense of the markets I see?

A huge thanks to anyone who reads or responds.

Maybe start off looking at scenario's, pair the market up with what's happening in the game looking for setups trying to identify if it offers more upside than downside in the moment.

Villa v Man City

Aston Villa started off like a train and put it on City, City's price never moved so could open a lay bet on City without the price going against you while it's 0-0 knowing Villa are on top.

Entry Lay City

Intent from Villa while City price is stuck in a small range

Cycle of Evaluation

Are Villa still on top applying pressure? Do Villa look like scoring? Are City rattled? Do City look like they can counter? What is Pep doing, is he making tweaks? Is my lay bet still valid etc etc etc You get the idea

Entry still valid - Hold trade
Entry not valid - Close trade

Exit

Villa score
City score
Entry is no longer valid (City starting to get more possession and game quietening down for example) close for a small loss

Here the upside offers more opportunity than the downside and that's' what you need to do get the balance in your favour every so slightly over the long-term. Anyway Villa scored after 16 mins

[dsaunders1234]

Hi all,

I have been trying to get into the world of football trading for quite some time now to no avail. I honestly take my hat off to anyone succeeding at this whether it be part time or full. I have tried the normal roots, fixed odds betting through an external provider of betfair data.I have also tried the old pre match statistics but again the more I reflect upon these the more I feel that football is more what you see happening in front of you as opposed to what should happen. I have taken a step back and have spent the last few months monitoring markets. I am trying to do more of Rebelo type approach (optimistic I know) but more in terms of looking for prices which seem incorrect. I have decided to focus solely on the Match Odds market for now. I have looked at pre match favourites who maybe haven’t had the best start and are being dominated or don’t look threatening and looking for a price correction in the market. I am still trying to identify when in the match this price correction happens more quickly and if starting odds matter. I.e. Will a 1.4 favourite change differently to a 1.8 favourite. With the 1.8 favourite if they drift through the crossover point of 2 will that work in my favour as opposed to waiting for a 1.4 shot to move the same amount of ticks and if this will require more or less exposure time.

Another thing I have noticed is that odds on favourites who are dominating the match their odds stay stable particularly in the first half? Can anyone tell me why? Is it purely because everyone expects the goal to come? To my untrained mind this seems like a good opportunity to back as if the goal does not come there aren’t many tick that would go against you unless the underdog scores.

I also monitor laying the leading team when the losing team are on top and look threatening. Again unless the goal goes against you this seems a safeish play as the odds do not go drastically against you.

The more I monitor the more I see that I have been purely punting in the past. Lets say I was looking to lay the losing team when opposition were dominating or back a team who were on top when the match was tied I would take the bet and normally leave it run until the end of the match. Whereas I think (rightly or wrongly) that I should look to do this a. when it is value or b. at stages where the market is stable and the prices will not go against me too much (unless a red card or goal goes against me obviously). I think this is what Peter means by framing a trade and having a defined exit point. Again, I don’t know if what I am saying is accurate and I know that ultimately P+L is the only way to judge but am I making sense of the markets I see?

A huge thanks to anyone who reads or responds.

Maybe start off looking at scenario's, pair the market up with what's happening in the game looking for setups trying to identify if it offers more upside than downside in the moment.

Villa v Man City

Aston Villa started off like a train and put it on City, City's price never moved so could open a lay bet on City without the price going against you while it's 0-0 knowing Villa are on top.

Entry Lay City

Intent from Villa while City price is stuck in a small range

Cycle of Evaluation

Are Villa still on top applying pressure? Do Villa look like scoring? Are City rattled? Do City look like they can counter? What is Pep doing, is he making tweaks? Is my lay bet still valid etc etc etc You get the idea

Entry still valid - Hold trade
Entry not valid - Close trade

Exit

Villa score
City score
Entry is no longer valid (City starting to get more possession and game quietening down for example) close for a small loss

Here the upside offers more opportunity than the downside and that's' what you need to do get the balance in your favour every so slightly over the long-term. Anyway Villa scored after 16 mins

That’s really helpful. Thank you.

[Kai]

Another thing I have noticed is that odds on favourites who are dominating the match their odds stay stable particularly in the first half? Can anyone tell me why?

The market values ball possession

You don't need fast pics to trade but you kinda need them to understand the market behaviour, to see the market for what it is

Monitoring without the burden of open positions is not a bad idea, hopefully you find your niche quicker that way. But as you can tell trying a bit of everything and scratching the surface is not enough, have to go much deeper and specialize a particular corner of the market before moving on (this is key imo), football has so many variables and markets that it's easy to jump from one to another and end up back at the drawing board

In short I would roughly split football trading into 3 main approaches : football, ladder, stats

Arguably you could maybe also add speed merchants and VAR abusers or put them under ladder, but the last one (stats) is self-explanatory and not too relevant in this inplay context, while the first one is based on game reading and game sense so your edge comes from the football side of things and your specialist knowledge of either the game or particular teams. The ladder side is basically the (pure) trading side where you focus more on the market itself, so order flow skillset is mandatory here, with keywords being scalping, market patterns, liquidity, volatility etc. My average football knowledge wasn't enough to beat the market efficiency either, my first breakthrough also came from the ladder side of things.

Anyway, for best results I would recommend to somehow marry the first two approaches, while stats are a bit like the 3rd wheel.

Obviously everyone has an opinion on football but those that make a living off it can't afford to be wrong too many times, if their takes aren't usually spot on they might as well just pack it in.

Sounds like you are trying the game reading approach (like Rebelo) which is arguably the hardest to learn, mastering it would basically unlock any random match for you, so maybe you should start smaller?

Either way, best of luck

[weemac]

In liquid matches specialize in correct scores, especially 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 and 2-1. Some interesting things happen repeatedly.

[dsaunders1234]

Another thing I have noticed is that odds on favourites who are dominating the match their odds stay stable particularly in the first half? Can anyone tell me why?

The market values ball possession

You don't need fast pics to trade but you kinda need them to understand the market behaviour, to see the market for what it is

Monitoring without the burden of open positions is not a bad idea, hopefully you find your niche quicker that way. But as you can tell trying a bit of everything and scratching the surface is not enough, have to go much deeper and specialize a particular corner of the market before moving on (this is key imo), football has so many variables and markets that it's easy to jump from one to another and end up back at the drawing board

In short I would roughly split football trading into 3 main approaches : football, ladder, stats

Arguably you could maybe also add speed merchants and VAR abusers or put them under ladder, but the last one (stats) is self-explanatory and not too relevant in this inplay context, while the first one is based on game reading and game sense so your edge comes from the football side of things and your specialist knowledge of either the game or particular teams. The ladder side is basically the (pure) trading side where you focus more on the market itself, so order flow skillset is mandatory here, with keywords being scalping, market patterns, liquidity, volatility etc. My average football knowledge wasn't enough to beat the market efficiency either, my first breakthrough also came from the ladder side of things.

Anyway, for best results I would recommend to somehow marry the first two approaches, while stats are a bit like the 3rd wheel.

Obviously everyone has an opinion on football but those that make a living off it can't afford to be wrong too many times, if their takes aren't usually spot on they might as well just pack it in.

Sounds like you are trying the game reading approach (like Rebelo) which is arguably the hardest to learn, mastering it would basically unlock any random match for you, so maybe you should start smaller?

Either way, best of luck

Hi Kai, I have read many of your responses and hoped you might offer some insight. What do you mean by “maybe you should start smaller?”

Apologies if it’s a noob question

[dsaunders1234]

In liquid matches specialize in correct scores, especially 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 and 2-1. Some interesting things happen repeatedly.

I haven’t looked too much into trading correct score markets only match odds but that could be an option

[Michael5482]

In liquid matches specialize in correct scores, especially 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 and 2-1. Some interesting things happen repeatedly.

I haven’t looked too much into trading correct score markets only match odds but that could be an option

Just to add to what Kai offered record your screen with the match odds ladder and record or replay a live game with the two side by side in sync.

[Kai]

Yeah, it's a good idea to record and play a match in sync with the ladder, to make sure you don't miss anything when there's a lot going on live, or to have a closer look what other market participants are doing.

Which is easier to see on thinner markets (you can apply this premise to all sports markets), because if someone is active on a market you have to assume they are profitable, and if there is unusually big activity or large stakes flying in they may be onto something there, this is all part of observing/reading the market and order flow, so I suppose you could monitor things until it becomes relatively obvious where the opportunities are.

NVIDIA's Instant Replay feature is also great for capturing moments without actively recording, pressing a shortcut key saves the last minute or so for later analysis if something catches your eye etc.

But bear in mind that some markets/leagues can behave slightly differently depending what sort of market participants are active there and what feeds they have for it so some matches will be more competitive than others, this also depends on scheduling, while on some of the smaller leagues people are able to beat the market delay and can sweep you up if you're left exposed when they see a goal coming.

By "starting small" I simply meant to say you're maybe underestimating how many (honed) skills make up Rebelo's skillset for example, to trade with a similar approach I think you would first need to build each one of these skills individually. Because he's had time to explore every corner of the market by now and went through all these things and countless order flow strategies, many of which are not even viable anymore, not to mention he's witnessed the evolution of footy markets first-hand, so his game and market reading are the product of all that experience. My point is that this kind of refined trading style is something you build toward as your ultimate destination ideally, it's not really where you start your journey.

As a footballing example people rave about how good and mature Jude Bellingham is considering his age, why do you think that is? He's only 21 but he already has 6 seasons behind him with some 250 apps, that's like equivalent to the average game time of an experienced 28-year-old. But he started by honing his skills for a full season in the Championship.

[dsaunders1234]

Thanks Kai. I get what you mean by building up to that level. Any ideas on best way to learn about order flow and so on with regards to market skills. I know Peter had videos on you tube but these are horse racing ones but would I be right in thinking that this is still okay to learn from to apply to football as order flow can be used in both markets?

[Kai]

Idk, very hard to compare speculative preoff markets with inplay markets which are directly dictated by on-pitch events and time decay.

Generally the closer it gets to kickoff the more accurate the prices tend to be. Yet, a match can begin in a way that completely defies market expectations. The more wrong the market was the faster it tries to adjust before time decay kicks in.

That's probably where the first opportunity lies, although I always thought that scalping was a decent starting point. It's still bread & butter for a lot of traders.

For example I would never recommend something like the "Grandad method" to beginners : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eN9MVZWdfM

[Michael5482]

Idk, very hard to compare speculative preoff markets with inplay markets which are directly dictated by on-pitch events and time decay.

Generally the closer it gets to kickoff the more accurate the prices tend to be. Yet, a match can begin in a way that completely defies market expectations. The more wrong the market was the faster it tries to adjust before time decay kicks in.

That's probably where the first opportunity lies, although I always thought that scalping was a decent starting point. It's still bread & butter for a lot of traders.

I agree scalping is the place to start, I started trying to predict football match outcomes and couldn't then the lightbulb moment for me was why I don't I try to be right for a shorter space of time and build out over.

Scalping is still massive part of my armoury and should be in anyones football portfolio. I'd argue it's easier than scalping any other sport as with time decay you can build confidence knowing the market direction especially in the over/Under markets.

[dsaunders1234]

Idk, very hard to compare speculative preoff markets with inplay markets which are directly dictated by on-pitch events and time decay.

Generally the closer it gets to kickoff the more accurate the prices tend to be. Yet, a match can begin in a way that completely defies market expectations. The more wrong the market was the faster it tries to adjust before time decay kicks in.

That's probably where the first opportunity lies, although I always thought that scalping was a decent starting point. It's still bread & butter for a lot of traders.

For example I would never recommend something like the "Grandad method" to beginners : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eN9MVZWdfM

I have seen the grandad method actually. I don’t think I fancy laying at some of those prices either

[dsaunders1234]

Idk, very hard to compare speculative preoff markets with inplay markets which are directly dictated by on-pitch events and time decay.

Generally the closer it gets to kickoff the more accurate the prices tend to be. Yet, a match can begin in a way that completely defies market expectations. The more wrong the market was the faster it tries to adjust before time decay kicks in.

That's probably where the first opportunity lies, although I always thought that scalping was a decent starting point. It's still bread & butter for a lot of traders.

I agree scalping is the place to start, I started trying to predict football match outcomes and couldn't then the lightbulb moment for me was why I don't I try to be right for a shorter space of time and build out over.

Scalping is still massive part of my armoury and should be in anyones football portfolio. I'd argue it's easier than scalping any other sport as with time decay you can build confidence knowing the market direction especially in the over/Under markets.

Thanks Michael that’s good to know. I’ll be sure to have a look at scalping in a bit more detail. For overs/unders maybe even match odds in certain situations