https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/mcla ... ing-wrong/
Good read this
Formula 1
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Crazyskier
- Posts: 1269
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10353
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I'm finding the F1 commentry amusing this year, I used to have an Aunty Nelly.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10353
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A few might find this intersting.
I ran a 10,000 iteration Monte Carlo using the recorded lap times this season so far, no team orders, no major upgrades, weather affecting all equally, but rather than std 10% DNF I nudged Piastri to 9% and Norris & Verstappen on 11% (turn 1 beef). No randomised RB driver charges (such as Max getting a new rear gunner). No variance differential. 18 races + 6 sprints. Starting with post Miami points.
Converting probability density to prices:
Piastri 1.9 (which he is)
Norris 2.27 (currently 3)
Verstappen 27 (currently 9 due to the Max is Max effect but you can't beat the stopwatch with attitude unlike the City are City effect imo)
I ran a 10,000 iteration Monte Carlo using the recorded lap times this season so far, no team orders, no major upgrades, weather affecting all equally, but rather than std 10% DNF I nudged Piastri to 9% and Norris & Verstappen on 11% (turn 1 beef). No randomised RB driver charges (such as Max getting a new rear gunner). No variance differential. 18 races + 6 sprints. Starting with post Miami points.
Converting probability density to prices:
Piastri 1.9 (which he is)
Norris 2.27 (currently 3)
Verstappen 27 (currently 9 due to the Max is Max effect but you can't beat the stopwatch with attitude unlike the City are City effect imo)
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Nice simulation.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed May 07, 2025 2:44 pmA few might find this intersting.
I ran a 10,000 iteration Monte Carlo using the recorded lap times this season so far, no team orders, no major upgrades, weather affecting all equally, but rather than std 10% DNF I nudged Piastri to 9% and Norris & Verstappen on 11% (turn 1 beef). No randomised RB driver charges (such as Max getting a new rear gunner). No variance differential. 18 races + 6 sprints. Starting with post Miami points.
Converting probability density to prices:
Piastri 1.9 (which he is)
Norris 2.27 (currently 3)
Verstappen 27 (currently 9 due to the Max is Max effect but you can't beat the stopwatch with attitude unlike the City are City effect imo)
file-42ZqrPomanL1HUXC1KHEaP.png
The market is ignoring the possibility/fact? that as time goes on the McLaren and Norris become better married up so he has more in hand and makes less mistakes. Also flexi-wing rule change but we shall see with that.
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Crazyskier
- Posts: 1269
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
Yes, was thrilled to see him and George get between Oscar and Lando. Though Lando is a Brit, his theatrics when asked to swap some races ago mean that I'd like Oscar to win the 2025 Title. He is pure class.
No wonder Guenther Steiner was apoplectic when McLaren gained Oscar's signature. He's a champion in waiting and I believe 2025 is his year with his talent and that car.
CS
Monaco is won or lost in the pit stops.
But I still think it should remain on the calendar.
The two chicanes at the swimming pool between the tunnel and La Rascasse are a thing of beauty in these days of hi-def tv.
My favourite corners along with Eau Rouge at Spa.
But I still think it should remain on the calendar.
The two chicanes at the swimming pool between the tunnel and La Rascasse are a thing of beauty in these days of hi-def tv.
My favourite corners along with Eau Rouge at Spa.