Today's Horse Racing

[sniffer66]

So, I've been playing around with the 10 years worth of horse data I've been able to accumulate. Running 2 experimental models looking for value bets, entering on runners where my model probability is less than the BF implied by x%

Last 2 days have been a bit interesting. Not bad given my tiny test stakes

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Japers... That is high odds indeed )

To be fair, its not a full representation of the price spread, they were just the big ones that stood out. I've seen it go in on up to 5 runners a race. For value, if it qualifies, it bets. Given it made £115 yesterday to stakes between 22p and 50p (I'm % staking) its an outlier day. It's hard to quantify points given the variable staking but I'm £260 up to 10p starting stakes (0.1% of £10 starting bank), and results align with backtesting, so I'm starting to build some confidence. Just going to let it run and see if it carries on snowballing.

[jamesedwards]

So, I've been playing around with the 10 years worth of horse data I've been able to accumulate. Running 2 experimental models looking for value bets, entering on runners where my model probability is less than the BF implied by x%

Last 2 days have been a bit interesting. Not bad given my tiny test stakes

Capture.JPG

Capture1.JPG

Japers... That is high odds indeed )

To be fair, its not a full representation of the price spread, they were just the big ones that stood out. I've seen it go in on up to 5 runners a race. For value, if it qualifies, it bets. Given it made £115 yesterday to stakes between 22p and 50p (I'm % staking) its an outlier day. It's hard to quantify points given the variable staking but I'm £260 up to 10p starting stakes (0.1% of £10 starting bank), and results align with backtesting, so I'm starting to build some confidence. Just going to let it run and see if it carries on snowballing.

Nice!

[Naffman]

Byrnes family in a lot of trouble I reckon

[ForFolksSake]

Kempton 20:52
Caprelo

[paspuggie48]

I use Racing & Sports https://www.racingandsports.com.au/race-day to get some data which I then merge into the exported Guardian data. This is how I noticed some meets were not loaded by BF.

Check to see if your Guardian loaded Albury & Townsville from last night

I'm going to list the Oz horse racing markets that were available to load in to Guardian before midnight each day (prior to races taking place after midnight Oz time), highlighting those that weren't available too on top of those I highlighted before.

Remember all Oz horse races used to be available the day before the events but seems Betfair have had a change of tact.

Available (before midnight UK time 26th)
Seymour
Hawkesbury

* Not Available
Townsville
Albury

Available (before midnight UK time 27th)
Sale
Pinjarra
Canterbury

* Not Available
Gawler
Doomben

Available (before midnight UK time 28th)
Gosford
Pakenham

* Not Available
Cairns
Hamilton
Inverell

Available (currently as of 11am today, 29th)
Casino
Cranbourne

* Not Available
Sunshine Coast
Bendigo
Goulburn
Rockhampton

[andy28]

The other week I noticed some markets in Oz were not available and even waiting until 10pm-11pm they were still not available. I contacted BF Help and they said it was down to the TAB not giving them "fixed odds". I questioned this as the Exchange markets don't need fixed odds to be formulated. They then said it was the Trading Teams decision to not load the Oz races onto Betfair until after midnight.

I know Betfair have often seeded the market with small money and a wide spread on the early markets, so they are probably looking to other pricing to be in the ball park.

I'll have to check my bots to see if they are missing anything. I spotted a discrepancy at the start of this month and I wonder if that explains it. I collect data via two different sources and they seemed to be telling me different things.

I use Racing & Sports https://www.racingandsports.com.au/race-day to get some data which I then merge into the exported Guardian data. This is how I noticed some meets were not loaded by BF.

Check to see if your Guardian loaded Albury & Townsville from last night

Haven't looked at Aussie racing for a few weeks but loaded them today and noticed only 2 meetings, Casino & Cranbourne. I thought it was strange I am in NZ and I load them about 9.00am here, and have done so for many years. Saw you post refreshed guardian and it populated with another 4 meetings. I have never struck this before

[paspuggie48]

Haven't looked at Aussie racing for a few weeks but loaded them today and noticed only 2 meetings, Casino & Cranbourne. I thought it was strange I am in NZ and I load them about 9.00am here, and have done so for many years. Saw you post refreshed guardian and it populated with another 4 meetings. I have never struck this before

For me it's mostly about getting the data before racing starts and Guardian does that better than anything else.

Available (currently as of 10.30am today, 30th)
Rosehill
Eagle Farm
Caulfield
Morphettville
Pinjarra

* Not Available
Kembla-Grange
Ipswich
Werribee
Toowoomba
Alice-Springs
Carnarvon
Tamworth

Peter has suggested Auto Hot Keys to auto-load the cards as a workaround to load the markets in the early hours. Must admit I've never used Auto Hot Keys but will look at that, unless anyone else has already done it? I suppose the API option would be a more reliable solution but then again I've got no experience with that...maybe another thing to learn

[paspuggie48]

Oz Horse racing markets for tomorrow which are/are not available in advance >

Available (currently as of 10.00am today, 31st)
Sandown
Muswellbrook
Kalgoorlie


* Not Available
Devonport
Moe
Murwillumbah
Port Hedland
Kilkoy
Penola

Last night around 20:00pm I checked the US markets and they were available for meetings 24 hours later. However, Oz horse racing markets were still not available even though the races were only 5-6 hours later.

[Euler]

Haven't looked at Aussie racing for a few weeks but loaded them today and noticed only 2 meetings, Casino & Cranbourne. I thought it was strange I am in NZ and I load them about 9.00am here, and have done so for many years. Saw you post refreshed guardian and it populated with another 4 meetings. I have never struck this before

For me it's mostly about getting the data before racing starts and Guardian does that better than anything else.

Available (currently as of 10.30am today, 30th)
Rosehill
Eagle Farm
Caulfield
Morphettville
Pinjarra

* Not Available
Kembla-Grange
Ipswich
Werribee
Toowoomba
Alice-Springs
Carnarvon
Tamworth

Peter has suggested Auto Hot Keys to auto-load the cards as a workaround to load the markets in the early hours. Must admit I've never used Auto Hot Keys but will look at that, unless anyone else has already done it? I suppose the API option would be a more reliable solution but then again I've got no experience with that...maybe another thing to learn

I tend only to trade the main Metro courses, which were uploaded on Saturday. But the country courses were not.

[paspuggie48]

I tend only to trade the main Metro courses, which were uploaded on Saturday. But the country courses were not.

Have you been in touch with your BF contacts to find out why after years of them uploading all markets in advance they are now only selecting a few to be available now Peter?

[ForFolksSake]

Stratford 20:00
Stans The Man

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqZCep-wjSs

[StellaBot]

1.55 Nottingham

Pay Attention should run well here

[feronni]

Nice One!

1.55 Nottingham

Pay Attention should run well here

[ForFolksSake]

Chelmsford 18:45
Mr Swivell

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4SYvodAGNU

[Bog]

Hi. Does anyone know the reason behind Betfair's decision to stop offering live video for Irish racing and some of the UK tracks (like Chelmsford) in certain jurisdictions? Strange decision, Romania fully legalized, offices in Cluj and still live video unavailable. Live support, as usual, doesn't know the details.

"Sorry for any inconvenience, unfortunately I cannot provide you with more information about this at this time, they have been removed from several jurisdictions and at this time we have no news on whether they will be accessible again."