After extensive testing, I've decided to stop developing these models further. I run a diversified portfolio, and while I believe there are statistical edges in football and golf, the ROI hasnāt been compelling enough to beat my main strategiesāespecially when accounting for time and effort.
So Iām sharing these tools with the community. I wonāt be supporting or explaining how to use themāthis is purely a code base. Feel free to use them, modify them, or take parts that interest you.
Designed to help identify value lays using statistical modelling.
š Golf Tools (2-Part System)
One file generates the signals (model), and the other interprets and filters them.
Football Models:
Matchodds Prob ā In-play match odds lay model, tracks xG, shots, and possession trends.
Matchodds Inplay Prob ā In-play model using zero-inflated Poisson logic to evaluate fair odds and suggest lays.
Matchodds Pre Prob ā Pre-match model for calculating team strength and implied probabilities.
OverUnders Prob ā Laying over/under goals based on expected values and adjusted Poisson.
Prematch Goal Prob ā Pre-match zero-inflated goal model using historical scoring/conceding data.
Inplay Goal Prob ā GUI model for real-time in-play betting decisions using shots, xG, and possession.
Golf Models:
Golf Model ā Evaluates delta (gap between model fair and market odds), classifies signals (Strong/Medium/Weak), and calculates stake sizes based on bankroll.
Golf Interpreter ā Companion interface to interpret and summarize the signals for practical use (e.g., which golfers to lay).
You're welcome to build on this, but I wonāt be offering support. Hopefully it saves someone a few dozen hours of work.
Good luck and trade well