£25 a day - A beginner's journey

[ShaunWhite]

Isn't that the price you pay for removing emotion from the trading equation,

Bit of a facalcy that automated trading doesn't involve emotion and subjectivity, it's just different. Each day is a trust exercise with thousands of pounds, and if you guys loose you can get back in the saddle in 10minutes or next day, our losses can come after months of work which can be crushing, and the next trial might be weeks away, longer if you've binned the project and look for fresh fields. And worse, something you could rely on for months or years vanishes almost overnight. It's emotional, but in bullet time rather than going on tilt for an hour.

[Leehaw1972]

If you are going down that road, prepare yourself to lose lots of money. I mean thousands of pounds. That's the reality while your learning. You will think your winning and then all of a sudden a horse comes from the back of the field and bites you in the ass. That's the reality.

[ShaunWhite]

If you are going down that road, prepare yourself to lose lots of money. I mean thousands of pounds. That's the reality while your learning. You will think your winning and then all of a sudden a horse comes from the back of the field and bites you in the ass. That's the reality.

Sounds like staking too big before the edge has been proven. Horses will 'come from the back and win' as about often as their odds suggest and with close to 2000 horses a week running in the summer 1000/1 winners could land twice a week on average. But with money management and a decent strategy no single loss should be ever be especially significant.

Nobody should be losing thousands.

[Fugazi]

If you are going down that road, prepare yourself to lose lots of money. I mean thousands of pounds. That's the reality while your learning. You will think your winning and then all of a sudden a horse comes from the back of the field and bites you in the ass. That's the reality.

Sounds like staking too big before the edge has been proven. Horses will 'come from the back and win' as about often as their odds suggest and with close to 2000 horses a week running in the summer 1000/1 winners could land twice a week on average. But with money management and a decent strategy no single loss should be ever be especially significant.

Nobody should be losing thousands.

BUT

What about those horses that should be 20,000-1 ?

[ShaunWhite]

What about those horses that should be 20,000-1 ?

Touché
Hard enough to find backers at 1000 when it's 2000 let alone at 20,000 (ie dead behind a screen)

But you've highlighted a quirk. You've got 1000 but we don't have 1.001. XM isn't quite so involved above 100 with having the 1.01 bottom.

[tico]

Hi All ,
This has been an interesting discussion and there is enough info here to feed the optimists and pessimists amongst us .
So what is the reality behind trading and given the fact that only 2% of people make money out of trading on BF (unless you listen to a very silly video that tells us 96% win) is there really a way to profitability ?

I find all of this talk about losing a fortune to gain an 'edge' disconcerting to say the least .The other mantra that nobody will part with a winning angle/strategy is probably only that a mantra .
Personally I think that successful traders dont exist and possibly only exist for a small period in time before they bite the dust .
Laying is another predicament . You will get wiped out or manage to keep your head above water for a while . But I feel that betting the value (on BF ,Smarkets Orbit etc) is probably still the best way to go ,it has certainly worked for me .
Turn the clock back
Pre Exchanges.
with 10% tax and only bookies plying their organised crime, value betting was almost impossible . If somebody then had suggested that the exchanges would exist you would have thought them candidates for deep therapy .But Exchanges did materialise and with it stunning opportunities for value betting .
So my advice is that if you want to earn 25 or 250 or 2,500 quid a day then start getting to know your game and looking for the value ,forget trading it's just a sophisticated way of losing your shirt .

[jamesedwards]

I find all of this talk about losing a fortune to gain an 'edge' disconcerting to say the least .

Coincidentally or not, this is exactly what happened to me.

When I first started out trying to trade full time, very early on I lost £2.5k unexpectedly in one market. After a few hours moping about it, I started to think about how I could leverage similar events to my advantage, and without knowing it, I soon had created my first edge. 6 years on I'm well on the way to a Betfair million, and that single event probably kick-started the whole thing.

I think too many people think if they throw enough random trading rules at a market then they'll find something that sticks. There's always someone new on here asking about how do they back at x when y goals have been scored and trade out with z mins to play etc. You would have to be so lucky to stumble across an edge that way. You're going to need luck, of course, but the more logical your thinking, the less luck you will need.

[Kai]

Personally I think that successful traders dont exist and possibly only exist for a small period in time before they bite the dust .

Yep, real eyes realize real lies

The good old "if I can't do it, must be a giant conspiracy" argument... denying reality as a coping mechanism

How tf is anyone able to succeed at something they don't even believe exists, let that one marinate for a moment

[ShaunWhite]

I find all of this talk about losing a fortune to gain an 'edge' disconcerting to say the least .The other mantra that nobody will part with a winning angle/strategy is probably only that a mantra .

Personally I think that successful traders dont exist and possibly only exist for a small period in time before they bite the dust .

It's definately not the case that people who suceeed lose big on the way. The most successful guy I know only ever made one deposit, back in about 2005.

A winning strategy : You predict that a certain product (apples or the favourite in the 2:30) is going to be popular, so you buy some. When everyone else starts buying/backing the hot product, the price changes due to supply and demand. So you sell your apples and lay off your favourite and make a turn on it. Repeat.

People get so hung up on Betfair being different or special but buying and selling a commodity as prices move is as old as the hills. Some aren't any good at it and fail, others do OK, and the very best do very well indeed. What the best have is a nose for what's going to be popular or unpopular and that's experience and instinct and can't easily be taught.


.

[Kai]

Anecdotal tradesplaining aside, please break down the logic behind it

How can someone get so confident in value betting, yet fail to see how trading could be possible