IP Exit strategy

[Emtaxx]

Hi ALL!

Lets start by saying, The paramteres settings for offestting bet and greening etc is really good for pre race. however its terrible for IP as it doesnt have the logic to red up even when its gone past its stop loss location.

Alternatively we can use the green up setting rule to red out if its < than £10 i.e., however this is still pretty lame as then it will red up instantly even when it potentially has another shot at landing something good.

Coul anyone provide a decent red up / green up bot they have that basically does what the paramteres does, but is a bit more clever that is good in IP betting?

THX!

[jamesedwards]

Hi ALL!

Lets start by saying, The paramteres settings for offestting bet and greening etc is really good for pre race. however its terrible for IP as it doesnt have the logic to red up even when its gone past its stop loss location.

Alternatively we can use the green up setting rule to red out if its < than £10 i.e., however this is still pretty lame as then it will red up instantly even when it potentially has another shot at landing something good.

Coul anyone provide a decent red up / green up bot they have that basically does what the paramteres does, but is a bit more clever that is good in IP betting?

THX!

Assuming you're talking horse races then you'll be hard pressed to find any greening tool that isn't a big fat -EV. The one-second delay coupled with fast moving prices are too challenging for any greening tool to work effectively imo.

[Emtaxx]

blooody hell. looks like value betting it is then. thats not good or ideal really ..

[jamesedwards]

blooody hell. looks like value betting it is then. thats not good or ideal really ..

Depends what you are doing.

I've seen successful in-running traders protect themselves by taking up greening positions in advance, eg if you think a horse trading at 10.0 is about to crash in price, then you can lay at 10.0 and put in an immediate offset back offer at 20.0 to lock in any profit. But if you lay at 10.0 and try to green only when it reaches 20.0, there's a strong likelihood that by the time your trade hits the market the price will have either drifted out into oblivion, or you end up chasing it back in.

[sniffer66]

Have you tried taking current price, calculating the green up stake for that price and putting that in at 1.01, therefore getting matched at current price after the betting delay ? It's not going to be an exact green\red but would mitigate a complete loss, assuming you arent in the very late stages and prices are bouncing all over

[Emtaxx]

blooody hell. looks like value betting it is then. thats not good or ideal really ..

Depends what you are doing.

I've seen successful in-running traders protect themselves by taking up greening positions in advance, eg if you think a horse trading at 10.0 is about to crash in price, then you can lay at 10.0 and put in an immediate offset back offer at 20.0 to lock in any profit. But if you lay at 10.0 and try to green only when it reaches 20.0, there's a strong likelihood that by the time your trade hits the market the price will have either drifted out into oblivion, or you end up chasing it back in.

ah thats a interesting way to do it. you take a loss before the profit. itneresting.... I need to ask chat gpt what it can suggest really. I've created something really cool it seems (also thanks to you James (counter was very important)). Issue is I can enter a trade IP and my offer gets taken and I put a green up automatically with the green up parameters fucntion -> this will green up no matter, even if I place A lay it will still green it up by offsetting matched at 10 ticks away or matched before it can offset if the market has drifted that substantially.

However when it comes to the stop loss, if it goes past its Stop loss market it just doesnt get matched at all and then the nagatives run away. so it always ruins a potentially good stratgery, but the exit strategy is lame. then you just lose bigger than u win...

Thats what i want to work on next, something that actually does the same, as it would but with the red..

[Emtaxx]

Have you tried taking current price, calculating the green up stake for that price and putting that in at 1.01, therefore getting matched at current price after the betting delay ? It's not going to be an exact green\red but would mitigate a complete loss, assuming you arent in the very late stages and prices are bouncing all over

I have not thought of this, is this something you do ? is it effective?

[sniffer66]

Have you tried taking current price, calculating the green up stake for that price and putting that in at 1.01, therefore getting matched at current price after the betting delay ? It's not going to be an exact green\red but would mitigate a complete loss, assuming you arent in the very late stages and prices are bouncing all over

I have not thought of this, is this something you do ? is it effective?

I've not tried it in anger, but I did see a post from someone who used it as a failsafe a while ago. Might be worth testing

[Emtaxx]

Think I'll just have to create something of my own as I dontsupsect anyone wil be willing to give me theirs really lol. its as equal to the edge you may have. everyone talks about strategy but NO ONE talks about exit strategies.. ! theres a reason i suspect!

[jamesedwards]

Think I'll just have to create something of my own as I dontsupsect anyone wil be willing to give me theirs really lol. its as equal to the edge you may have. everyone talks about strategy but NO ONE talks about exit strategies.. ! theres a reason i suspect!

I think the reason is exit for merely greening's sake will be -EV.

If you're confident in your edge and have a big enough bank to cover negative swings, then why give any of your EV away by greening up? I don't.

[Emtaxx]

yeah it does make sense for it to be that way. I'm able to get into a profitable position and like the idea of being in and out with the same greening/redding up on either side as, anything can still happen before the horse goes over the line, but you do make a good point.

[Emtaxx]

With chat gpt it seems the best approach and most logical one too now I think about it is exit the trade with then oppose reasons you entered. Not just based upon well it’s made 10£ let’s pull out type mentality … more work is needed !

[jamesedwards]

With chat gpt it seems the best approach and most logical one too now I think about it is exit the trade with then oppose reasons you entered. Not just based upon well it’s made 10£ let’s pull out type mentality … more work is needed !

To maximise profit you want every trade to be +EV and every trade should be treated on it's own merit, whether entry or exit.

If an exit trade is not +EV then you are trading off profitability for a smoother P&L.

[Emtaxx]

Yeah its another good point James. Gana take me a bit of work here to then apply some stored value conditions that work on that EV+ Merit for entering exiting.Thank you for the on going help and guidance )))

[Emtaxx]

so far and I know this means absolutely nothing and I've been running on practice mode with the relivant logs signals for data etc for got the conditions set up from the toolings which have been used and bosh we're looking good! so far today (not sure if you guys have also had a good day?) but I've currently got 14 winners and 3 losers

100£ fake stakes we're at: -440 loss and +1245. with 18 races trades IP

Will run a bank tomorrow on 10£ with 10p steaks ! then lots of fine tuning for best reverse prices or best prices etc and all that other quanitifying stuff like max stake usage which will take a month at least to figure out along side actual career work...

I know I need to run a bot for 1000 trades but I hope this is gana work out 9 month learning curve kicking my ass and this is my most complex and logical one yet! this was just letting them run instead of greening up