why i stopped trading and went back to straight bet instead

[Euler]

It's difficult to conceptulise things sometimes. The opportunity is created because the market is never accurate all the time and the constant change of opinion creates the trading opportunity. That's why I frame it as 'selling volatility'.

I'm probably fairly unique in terms of my jouney and being able to trade manually and algorithmically, but both and borne out of having bet & traded on hundreds of thousands of markets, analysed millions and actively deployed that knowledge into the market.

There are plenty of ways to do this, as many have discovered. There is no 'right' or 'wrong' way. Just one that works for each individual.

Isn't "selling volatility" just mean reversion?

No, there are many ways to 'sell it' of which mean reversion is one.

[TupleVision]

It's difficult to conceptulise things sometimes. The opportunity is created because the market is never accurate all the time and the constant change of opinion creates the trading opportunity. That's why I frame it as 'selling volatility'.

I'm probably fairly unique in terms of my jouney and being able to trade manually and algorithmically, but both and borne out of having bet & traded on hundreds of thousands of markets, analysed millions and actively deployed that knowledge into the market.

There are plenty of ways to do this, as many have discovered. There is no 'right' or 'wrong' way. Just one that works for each individual.

Isn't "selling volatility" just mean reversion?

No, there are many ways to 'sell it' of which mean reversion is one.

Interesting, thanks.

[stueytrader]

Just wondering, where did the OP go from this conversation, as this is really interesting as a question to all who either trade or bet, or both, in the markets.

I think there is some really interesting discussion here about the nature of trading, which I've just read thoroughly. But, there is also the original question in the OP - is it better/worse/same to choose to trade or to bet.

This depends on a fair few factors of course - if you are equally well disciplined at both (or just one), if you can research winning approaches at both (or just one), and then the issue partly mentioned here - the effort and activity that these will take to achieve profits.

This is a question close to my heart in punting and trading journey. I spent a lot of my younger life betting, and hit some pretty bad patches among the good ones (debts etc). I found trading a bit later on, and it gave me some different approaches, that helped often. But, I found I was spending a heck of a lot of time and energy, and it sometimes blew up in my face even if trading (vs betting). I think I got more consistent overall however from adding trading to what I do.

But trading wasn't perfect - some losses were big, and burnout a feeling of threat also - the long hours and intensity not helping my psychology at times. So, I started to go back to mixing. Some straight betting (usually laying in my case) added to my trading. That actually helped my results - quite a lot. It also reduced some of my time and energy stress levels. I pretty much gained a perfect balance - sometimes I trade if it seems right, sometimes I just straight back or lay. Some days I avoid trading due to time constraint only - it just takes so much more time if you are manual.

Currently I am in the best place financially I've ever been in my life. And this coincides with my 'mixed' approach to punting and trading. I feel I've found something that can balance, and balance wider life style too.

This kind of question should also consider the wider 'context' of time and other needs IMO, as well as the bottom lines of results and approaches of analysis effectiveness.

[Kai]

Currently I am in the best place financially I've ever been in my life. And this coincides with my 'mixed' approach to punting and trading. I feel I've found something that can balance, and balance wider life style too.

Glad to hear that

Sounds like you found your own truth about the market and balanced your approach and life accordingly

Well done, I am still working on some of the balancing parts

[stueytrader]

Currently I am in the best place financially I've ever been in my life. And this coincides with my 'mixed' approach to punting and trading. I feel I've found something that can balance, and balance wider life style too.

Glad to hear that

Sounds like you found your own truth about the market and balanced your approach and life accordingly

Well done, I am still working on some of the balancing parts

Thanks Kai, yes it's not an easy thing to find is balance, either in trading, punting, or life! I hope you are working well on that too. Time is a central balance factor I believe - and sadly trading does eat that heavily.

Just to add another variable of balancing into this mix I'd probably also say 'staking' can be a rather hidden factor - that can be crucial for both trading and betting to get right, but often differs between the two approaches. So when you attempt any 'mix' you have to be sure you have that right too.

Staking also heavily affects your 'life balance' too - sitting eating a dinner after losing a heavily overstaked one is an 'unbalancing' experience for sure!

[Kai]

Time is a central balance factor I believe - and sadly trading does eat that heavily.

From my experience it's attention.

I guess we're all just mapping out what we value most as we peel back the layers of life etc.

I used to believe money mattered most, then I thought it was time, before finally realizing it was really attention that is my ultimate resource.

[stueytrader]

Time is a central balance factor I believe - and sadly trading does eat that heavily.

From my experience it's attention.

I guess we're all just mapping out what we value most as we peel back the layers of life etc.

I used to believe money mattered most, then I thought it was time, before finally realizing it was really attention that is my ultimate resource.

Interesting point, will have to consider that too.

One thing I feel is that wider balance factors will directly impact on your earnings performance. So, it's not just some airy ideas about psychology either. It's important to have trading/betting processes and activity that fit well with you, or it soon becomes clear that trading and betting results take downturns.

I found getting headaches from staring at trading figures, for example, was never going to help my results, so that had to be reduced. Whereas some days, placing some early bets, being out for the day with family, resulted in some nice earnings figures to return too later that day. Fraction of the effort sometimes.

[ShaunWhite]

Time is a central balance factor I believe - and sadly trading does eat that heavily.

Time was my primary driver for going auto. I've got time but didn't always want to use 12-6 every afternoon and have it feel like a job. Might do nothing some months and I then might do 70hr weeks for a spell. Money isn't as important as freedom. Plus watching sport bores me so I'd rather watch code at 2am than watch horseracing at 2pm.

[stueytrader]

Time is a central balance factor I believe - and sadly trading does eat that heavily.

Time was my primary driver for going auto. I've got time but didn't always want to use 12-6 every afternoon and have it feel like a job. Might do nothing some months and I then might do 70hr weeks for a spell. Money isn't as important as freedom. Plus watching sport bores me so I'd rather watch code at 2am than watch horseracing at 2pm.

Yes, I was wondering if anyone would mention automation vs manual in that respect. Totally agree with you on your reasoning there about your time.

Personally, I like following sport (to some degree at least), and I've been too lazy or untrusting to try automation seriously. I still like to have some activity during the day - just not too much.

[ShaunWhite]

Time is a central balance factor I believe - and sadly trading does eat that heavily.

Time was my primary driver for going auto. I've got time but didn't always want to use 12-6 every afternoon and have it feel like a job. Might do nothing some months and I then might do 70hr weeks for a spell. Money isn't as important as freedom. Plus watching sport bores me so I'd rather watch code at 2am than watch horseracing at 2pm.

Yes, I was wondering if anyone would mention automation vs manual in that respect. Totally agree with you on your reasoning there about your time.

Personally, I like following sport (to some degree at least), and I've been too lazy or untrusting to try automation seriously. I still like to have some activity during the day - just not too much.

Probably not an either or, develop your automation and then sit back and enjoy your sport without the distraction of button pressing. But to do it properly isn't trivial, and takes up more of your precious time than a few hours on the ladder each day does.

The benefit though is if you fancy working then you don't need anything live going on. Grab an hour anytime. The downside is that when obsession kicks in you could, and do, work 247 rather than stopping when the action stops.

[ForFolksSake]

Time was my primary driver for going auto. I've got time but didn't always want to use 12-6 every afternoon and have it feel like a job. Might do nothing some months and I then might do 70hr weeks for a spell. Money isn't as important as freedom. Plus watching sport bores me so I'd rather watch code at 2am than watch horseracing at 2pm.

Yes, I was wondering if anyone would mention automation vs manual in that respect. Totally agree with you on your reasoning there about your time.

Personally, I like following sport (to some degree at least), and I've been too lazy or untrusting to try automation seriously. I still like to have some activity during the day - just not too much.

Probably not an either or, develop your automation and then sit back and enjoy your sport without the distraction of button pressing. But to do it properly isn't trivial, and takes up more of your precious time than a few hours on the ladder each day does.

The benefit though is if you fancy working then you don't need anything live going on. Grab an hour anytime. The downside is that when obsession kicks in you could, and do, work 247 rather than stopping when the action stops.

When are you planning to retire ?

[ShaunWhite]

When are you planning to retire ?

I retired from doing what I didn't enjoy doing ten years ago. Since I've been doing this I haven't 'worked' a day since. No plans to quit so long as I can see, click a mouse, and keep my marbles.

[ForFolksSake]

When are you planning to retire ?

I retired from doing what I didn't enjoy doing ten years ago. Since I've been doing this I haven't 'worked' a day since. No plans to quit so long as I can see, click a mouse, and keep my marbles.

Do you 'switch off' if you go on holiday ?

[stueytrader]

Good points on automation Shaun, though I am probably unlikely to ever get around to it - I've got rather set in my ways these days, and seen as it's going well not really got much need to change to automation. I've managed to be more realistic with my time these days - so at least sometimes also do other things beside trade and bet.

I also wouldn't trust doing it well, automating, (at least at first), so seems a backward (or sideways) step for me now.

But I can see why anyone really struggling with manual and time might look to develop it.

[ShaunWhite]

Good points on automation Shaun, though I am probably unlikely to ever get around to it - I've got rather set in my ways these days, and seen as it's going well not really got much need to change to automation. I've managed to be more realistic with my time these days - so at least sometimes also do other things beside trade and bet.

I also wouldn't trust doing it well, automating, (at least at first), so seems a backward (or sideways) step for me now.

But I can see why anyone really struggling with manual and time might look to develop it.

Yeah it's about choosing the lifestyle you want to build, no point turning it into an IT job where you never see sport if you enjoy the watching and adrenaline of mouse clicking. Auto definately isn't just a case of having a guess, failing then guessing again, there's a lot of work involved so not an 'easy' option to be chosen lightly.