UK General Election 2029 - Trading ONLY thread

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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sionascaig
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jamesedwards wrote:
Wed Oct 01, 2025 1:48 pm

It feels like the country kind of needs it. First past the post only really worked when elections were two horse races, and as politics becomes increasingly fragmented perhaps it's time to move on?
I think so plus will help limit the extremes on both sides (hopefully)...

I also like the idea that a parliament elects the Prime Minister (and can dispose of). It makes sense in a proportional representation world.
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jamesedwards
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sionascaig wrote:
Wed Oct 01, 2025 4:06 pm
jamesedwards wrote:
Wed Oct 01, 2025 1:48 pm

It feels like the country kind of needs it. First past the post only really worked when elections were two horse races, and as politics becomes increasingly fragmented perhaps it's time to move on?
I think so plus will help limit the extremes on both sides (hopefully)...

I also like the idea that a parliament elects the Prime Minister (and can dispose of). It makes sense in a proportional representation world.
Hopefully will also mitigate against the nonsense situations many find themselves in with tactical voting for people and parties they don't support. Farcical if you think about it.
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firlandsfarm
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Has anyone ever heard such language from a political party as has been expressed by Labour over the last 3 days? And what do they hope to gain from it ... either people will have forgotten it in 3+ years or if they remember it, it will be for the appalling language! Whichever way it shows to me they are shit scared of Farage.
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ForFolksSake
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Tories are back big time.... promise to deport !50,000 illegal immigrants/year ✈️

...... and foreigners to be banned from claiming benefits

.... and they will block candidates who do not back leaving ECHR
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jamesedwards
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Reform now well odds on for Most Seats.

z255.jpg
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firlandsfarm
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ForFolksSake wrote:
Sun Oct 05, 2025 10:23 pm
Tories are back big time.... promise to deport !50,000 illegal immigrants/year ✈️

...... and foreigners to be banned from claiming benefits

.... and they will block candidates who do not back leaving ECHR
:lol:
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ForFolksSake
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Sir Keir Starmer will be gone soon – bookmakers currently have him at evens to depart No 10 next year, and 4-1 to last to 2029
sionascaig
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jamesedwards wrote:
Sun Oct 05, 2025 11:07 pm
Reform now well odds on for Most Seats.

z255.jpg
About 8 or 9 ticks on the week.

Was about to say I wonder if there will be much movement during the Reform conference but it has already been... Can't even remember it making the news !

Really can't see Kemi lasting much longer - it all about when she goes not if...

Right up there with this fella...
Screenshot 2025-10-06 085834.png
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firlandsfarm
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jamesedwards wrote:
Sun Oct 05, 2025 11:07 pm
Reform now well odds on for Most Seats.


z255.jpg
OK but only 3.30 for overall majority ... who would partner up with Reform to form a Government? Possibly he closest to them politically is the Conservatives but that would mean them agreeing to be subservient and if the Conservatives have not become acceptable to the voters by then maybe Reform will see them as casting an unwanted shadow over them.
sionascaig
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:03 am
jamesedwards wrote:
Sun Oct 05, 2025 11:07 pm
Reform now well odds on for Most Seats.


z255.jpg
OK but only 3.30 for overall majority ... who would partner up with Reform to form a Government? Possibly he closest to them politically is the Conservatives but that would mean them agreeing to be subservient and if the Conservatives have not become acceptable to the voters by then maybe Reform will see them as casting an unwanted shadow over them.
He will defo get the NI unionists I would imagine although no idea how many of them will be left come next election..

His promise to scrape the Windsor framework (so no goods border between UK & NI) is right up their street.

The big takeaway I had from recent set of MRP polls is (at the moment) about 100 of the projected Reform seats are held with less than a 5% majority...

==> so although the polls are consistently saying "Reform most seats" there is a HUGE uncertainty within that...
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firlandsfarm
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sionascaig wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:16 am
The big takeaway I had from recent set of MRP polls is (at the moment) about 100 of the projected Reform seats are held with less than a 5% majority...

==> so although the polls are consistently saying "Reform most seats" there is a HUGE uncertainty within that...
What is a 5% majority worth in terms of %age vote/swing?
sionascaig
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2025 10:27 am
sionascaig wrote:
Mon Oct 06, 2025 9:16 am
The big takeaway I had from recent set of MRP polls is (at the moment) about 100 of the projected Reform seats are held with less than a 5% majority...

==> so although the polls are consistently saying "Reform most seats" there is a HUGE uncertainty within that...
What is a 5% majority worth in terms of %age vote/swing?
Really no idea.. (although 5% is usually the polls margin of error?)

Plus at the moment I'm not convinced the pollsters have yet caught up with underlying Reform support.

James posted an interesting comment earlier about how SDLP were way ahead in polls when they appeared on scene & expected to win a large majority but got hammered in the election.

To me, the value bet could be a lay on Cons (biggest party) but probably after a new leader is elected. Cant see any of the current contenders being able to shake of the recent past in time (despite labours best efforts).
tico
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Hi all
There's a by-election in the Welsh Senedd this week for the Cearphilly seat .Reform are 2/5 to win . If they do win it will have an effect on other prices so we will see a lot of price movement .Next year there is a full Senedd election .My bet is they(reform) will landslide it but make such a cockup of running the show then they will no longer be favourite to win the GE .The Senedd is responsible for running the welsh NHS ,remember Farage wants full privatisation of the NHS ,if he persues that policy in Wales it will be catasrophic for his general election chances .All eyes on Wales :)
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Tico
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jamesedwards
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tico wrote:
Mon Oct 20, 2025 9:01 pm
Hi all
There's a by-election in the Welsh Senedd this week for the Cearphilly seat .Reform are 2/5 to win . If they do win it will have an effect on other prices so we will see a lot of price movement .Next year there is a full Senedd election .My bet is they(reform) will landslide it but make such a cockup of running the show then they will no longer be favourite to win the GE .The Senedd is responsible for running the welsh NHS ,remember Farage wants full privatisation of the NHS ,if he persues that policy in Wales it will be catasrophic for his general election chances .All eyes on Wales :)
Kind Regards
Tico
If Nigel Farage EVER privatises the NHS I will eat my hat.
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firlandsfarm
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tico wrote:
Mon Oct 20, 2025 9:01 pm
... remember Farage wants full privatisation of the NHS ...
As you may know I often question such allegations via ChatgPT and ask it to fact check such assertions. This I did, I asked "Has Nigel Farage ever said he wants full privatisation of the NHS?". ChatGPT replied ...

"Short answer: I can’t find any reliable record of Nigel Farage saying—in so many words—that he “wants full privatisation of the NHS.”

What he has said: in 2014 he was filmed arguing the NHS should “move towards an insurance-based system run by private companies.” That’s often described by opponents as “privatisation,” but it isn’t him explicitly calling for full privatisation.

His later/public line: Farage/UKIP/Reform have repeatedly stated the NHS should remain “free at the point of use,” and fact-checkers have noted this when assessing claims about scrapping/privatising the NHS.

Recent nuance: in 2025 he said he was “open to” an insurance-based model; outlets summarised this as moving away from the current NHS funding model, which critics equate with privatisation—but again, that’s not the same as him saying he wants “full privatisation.”"

It's the usual problem ... something is said, it is misquoted/mis-interpreted ... it is reproduced many times by those with an axe to grind without checking the facts until it becomes 'the truth'!

He just wants it to be more efficiently run ... can't see the harm in that. Rather that than the current position where it is run by a load of Civil Servants who think an index linked final salary pension is an example of efficiency. Why do you want me to pay for the inefficiencies you enjoy?
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