The wisdom of the crowd...

[firlandsfarm]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

[jamesedwards]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

[ShaunWhite]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

I don't think 'the crowd', esp on Betfair, is big enough to stop the smart money from finding the value equilibrium.

[jamesedwards]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

I don't think 'the crowd', esp on Betfair, is big enough to stop the smart money from finding the value equilibrium.

I think you are correct.

[firlandsfarm]

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

I don't think 'the crowd', esp on Betfair, is big enough to stop the smart money from finding the value equilibrium.

I think you are correct.

I think the fans probably abstain when they think they will lose. And James I tested it using the football price download spreadsheet scalping the footballdata.co.uk files. I know it doesn't have Bf prices but I took a view the Bf price would not be far from the maximum odds in the footballdata data and once you test on that basis you can easily apply a %age enhancement to find the breakeven point (can't remember what it was )

[jamesedwards]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

Just for fun, I've set up a new one of these running just to see what happens. 99 markets in, and loving the early positive variance!

z281.jpg

[jamesedwards]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

Just for fun, I've set up a new one of these running just to see what happens. 99 markets in, and loving the early positive variance!


z281.jpg

507 matches in and going strong.

z288.jpg

[firlandsfarm]

Ah, the wonders of strategy graphs ,,, had you started the strategy at around bet 110 and if still be with it by bet 460 would you have carried on?

[jamesedwards]

Ah, the wonders of strategy graphs ,,, had you started the strategy at around bet 110 and if still be with it by bet 460 would you have carried on?

Just another 4500 results before I get something meaningful. Just waiting for the inevitable collapse.

[jamesedwards]

Still waiting for Mr Mean Reversion to stomp all over this.

z305.jpg

Perhaps this weekend?

Mr Mean.png

[firlandsfarm]

But this is the problem with strategy graphs ... if you had found/joined/monitored this strategy from around the 120 -160 bet time to the c.700 bet time would you have hung on beyond that? I prefer top do strategy graphs on a "if I joined on this day what would be my fund today". A better illustration of time/risk.

[jamesedwards]

But this is the problem with strategy graphs ... if you had found/joined/monitored this strategy from around the 120 -160 bet time to the c.700 bet time would you have hung on beyond that? I prefer top do strategy graphs on a "if I joined on this day what would be my fund today". A better illustration of time/risk.

No sign of Mr Mean yet. r² is growing. Now up to 81% !

z307.jpg

[Euler]

Rather than measuring it on an outright basis, try measuring against return on stake or liability. That's how I determine if my strategy is working or getting better or worse.

[Mike Oxlong]

Rather than measuring it on an outright basis, try measuring against return on stake or liability. That's how I determine if my strategy is working or getting better or worse.

As in, to plot the margin over time?

[Tuco]

...sorry to ask what will no doubt be a dumb question James, but is your latest graph suggesting that in the 988 matches monitored there have been 78 more draws than non-draws?

ie 533 draws and 455 non-draws? or is it a percentage graph?