Kalshi and Polymarket

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megarain
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Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
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I was interested in the user number.

AI gave me the following :

Betfair, as part of the Flutter Entertainment group, reported having more than 4.2 million monthly active users in 2025, according to the company's latest annual report. (WTF ? )

This figure includes users across the Betfair and Paddy Power brands. Additionally, a 2025 article noted that Betfair Casino had more than 4 million active users.

The platform has also seen significant user engagement, with monthly transaction volumes reaching £1.2 billion in June 2025.

It doesnt say the monthly Betfair users - They appear to have all been converted to the casino/sportsbook, as the declining volumes on the exchange
highlight.

According to The Block, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket saw a significant rebound in activity last month, with October's trading volume, number of active traders, and new markets all reaching historic highs. Its competitor Kalshi surpassed Polymarket in trading volume in October, reaching $4.4 billion.

Data shows that the number of monthly active traders on Polymarket hit a record high of 477,850 in October, surpassing the previous record of 462,600 set in January. This strong rebound for the platform comes after a decline in monthly active users throughout the year, with the number of monthly traders dropping to a low of 227,420 in August. Compared to September's 246,610, October's data represents a month-over-month increase of 93.7%.

Polymarket's monthly trading volume also rebounded to a record $3.02 billion last month, after hovering around or below $1 billion from February to August. The number of new markets opened on the platform in October reached 38,270, nearly three times that of August.
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Naffman
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Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Why are they called Prediction markets when it’s simply just gambling?

Is there a loophole in US law or is it just to make it sound ‘better’ like stock trading?
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megarain
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Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
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It’s a loophole.

Only a few states have legislation to allow sports gambling, but all allow financial gambling.

Prediction markets bet on financial contracts - so, hey presto, you can side step legal barriers to entry.

I have little doubt there will be major roadblocks along the way.
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