I would be interested in hearing about the results of your research.
Kindest regards
Psycho
Laying Short priced runners
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psycho040253
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Groovyelms
I would be interested in hearing about the results of your research.
Kindest regards
Psycho
I would be interested in hearing about the results of your research.
Kindest regards
Psycho
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Groovyelms
- Posts: 277
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 7:42 am
Very early days as it is not really my current style of trading, But am interested as the thread history appears to be in two camps... I don't have any prior experience so I thought lets observe a few races, and draw my own conclusions, I am sure today and sat will throw up some potential candidates..psycho040253 wrote:Groovyelms
I would be interested in hearing about the results of your research.
Kindest regards
Psycho
cheers groovy
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spreadbetting
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They'll always be ones you can highlight as winners Zenyatta much the same as others could stick up ones where the price has steadily gone all the way to 1.01. I'd be with Psycho on this one, it's all well and good highlighting the short priced favs are novices but all the others in the race are also novices.
I doubt any simple lay all short priced favs in novices approach will be worth the effort or work long term. That's not to say dismiss the idea as all my successful strategies are based on simple ideas but I'd think a bit more effort would be needed in selecting the horses to lay other than the fact they're a short priced fav.
I doubt any simple lay all short priced favs in novices approach will be worth the effort or work long term. That's not to say dismiss the idea as all my successful strategies are based on simple ideas but I'd think a bit more effort would be needed in selecting the horses to lay other than the fact they're a short priced fav.
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andyfuller
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Surely all of this comes down to value ultimately? Value is a subjective thing obviously.
If you are doing it at value prices it will be profitable in the long term if you are doing it at non value prices in the long run you won't be profitable.
No matter if you are doing it at value or not you will have examples of good wins and good losses.
If you are doing it at value prices it will be profitable in the long term if you are doing it at non value prices in the long run you won't be profitable.
No matter if you are doing it at value or not you will have examples of good wins and good losses.
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rubysglory
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Hi Andy,andyfuller wrote:Surely all of this comes down to value ultimately? Value is a subjective thing obviously.
If you are doing it at value prices it will be profitable in the long term if you are doing it at non value prices in the long run you won't be profitable.
.
When we start taking 'value' are we perhaps venturing into the field of Handicapping where value is readily defined on a Handicap Line Vs Market Price basis ? As someone with a Handicapping background, I use my price line as my starting basis and trade around that. Just curious how others would define 'value' in situations as exampled.
rg
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psycho040253
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Hi All
I think that where I went wrong was that I layed at the highest back odds available just after the off and hoped that they would rise above this level at some point during the race. Based upon my experience, I wouldn't recommend this 'method' to anyone because I lost money. I freely admit that what I know about trading can be written on a postage stamp and there would still be enough space left for the Queen's head.
What I can tell you is this: As a horse approaches a fence, I found that, in quite a few cases, the odds started to rise. They then started to fall if the horse negotiated the fence successfully. I can't be 100% sure of this because of the delay in receiving the TV signal. But, that's the way it looked to me.
What I also noticed was that if the horse jumped a fence badly, but still got over successfully, the odds started rising quite dramatically (relatively speaking). They only began falling to its previous level providing that the horse jumped the next fence well.
Provided that the horse is a recognised safe jumper, the above should provide a method for trading the same horse multiple times in running.
Hope this helps.
Psycho
I think that where I went wrong was that I layed at the highest back odds available just after the off and hoped that they would rise above this level at some point during the race. Based upon my experience, I wouldn't recommend this 'method' to anyone because I lost money. I freely admit that what I know about trading can be written on a postage stamp and there would still be enough space left for the Queen's head.
What I can tell you is this: As a horse approaches a fence, I found that, in quite a few cases, the odds started to rise. They then started to fall if the horse negotiated the fence successfully. I can't be 100% sure of this because of the delay in receiving the TV signal. But, that's the way it looked to me.
What I also noticed was that if the horse jumped a fence badly, but still got over successfully, the odds started rising quite dramatically (relatively speaking). They only began falling to its previous level providing that the horse jumped the next fence well.
Provided that the horse is a recognised safe jumper, the above should provide a method for trading the same horse multiple times in running.
Hope this helps.
Psycho
Here's another perfect illustration of what I am talking about.
Towcester 13:45 Harry The Viking
3m Nov hurdle - Towcester has notorious hill for last 2 or 3 furlongs.
Trading @1.22 (SP), 1st couple of furlongs observations:
Green as grass, high head carriage, sweating in behind, looking around. So odds dropped to 1.1 (was leading) 1.1??????? Woohooooo
Big lay in, at 1.1 - still has to negotiate the hurdles and 2 1/2 more miles, lots can happen here.
Downside? Can get out just before last hurdle for a 50% loss of stake.
Upside? He could fall?
Please watch this race on ATR if you are interested in what I am saying here.
As it happens he came under pressure during the race, his price hit 2.2.
What I did was to back it with enough @2 to get my liability back leaving a big green, as his price dropped again I greened up evenly.
I thought this was one of the clearest in play trading opportunities you could ever see. Very low risk.
Towcester 13:45 Harry The Viking
3m Nov hurdle - Towcester has notorious hill for last 2 or 3 furlongs.
Trading @1.22 (SP), 1st couple of furlongs observations:
Green as grass, high head carriage, sweating in behind, looking around. So odds dropped to 1.1 (was leading) 1.1??????? Woohooooo
Big lay in, at 1.1 - still has to negotiate the hurdles and 2 1/2 more miles, lots can happen here.
Downside? Can get out just before last hurdle for a 50% loss of stake.
Upside? He could fall?
Please watch this race on ATR if you are interested in what I am saying here.
As it happens he came under pressure during the race, his price hit 2.2.
What I did was to back it with enough @2 to get my liability back leaving a big green, as his price dropped again I greened up evenly.
I thought this was one of the clearest in play trading opportunities you could ever see. Very low risk.
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andyfuller
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Out of interest why did you not lay it at SP or just before the race started at 1.22ish as it sounds like you didn't anticipate it going shorter early on in the race?
Andy, I did lay it before the off (just below sp). But when I saw how the horse was trading given it's running in play I stepped in again.
Heard some negative comments about blind laying (I don't do this) so I was attempting to show the doubters that by reacting to what you see can be done with little risk
Heard some negative comments about blind laying (I don't do this) so I was attempting to show the doubters that by reacting to what you see can be done with little risk
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Ah okay - from how I read it it sounded like you laid it when it shortened only which didn't seem to make sense.
To clarify, would you only go in-play if you were watching the race live (or as near to live as you can get)?
Jeff
Jeff
mugsgame wrote: Heard some negative comments about blind laying (I don't do this) so I was attempting to show the doubters that by reacting to what you see can be done with little risk
Not necessarily Jeff.
If the risk v reward is acceptable, and the horse you are trading has some opposition that may put some pressure on his jumping you don't need to watch.
However, my point was by reading the race there are plenty of low risk opportunities to get involved in. You just need a little race reading skill.
i.e understand what you are seeing and how things are likely to pan out. If you can read the race and understand the market your in with a chance. The good news is it relatively low risk.
If the risk v reward is acceptable, and the horse you are trading has some opposition that may put some pressure on his jumping you don't need to watch.
However, my point was by reading the race there are plenty of low risk opportunities to get involved in. You just need a little race reading skill.
i.e understand what you are seeing and how things are likely to pan out. If you can read the race and understand the market your in with a chance. The good news is it relatively low risk.
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rubysglory
- Posts: 309
- Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:02 am
Is the Risk vs Reward you speak of measured against a constant - Pre-Race Handicapping, In Play-Speed Maps ? , or is it more instictive ?mugsgame wrote:If the risk v reward is acceptable, and the horse you are trading has some opposition that may put some pressure on his jumping you don't need to watch.
rg
,