Hi all,
Does anyone have any analysis on BSP v ISP?
I notice BSP tends to be lot bigger than ISP at times but just wondering what it is like on average or over a large data set. Im looking at odds less than or equal to c.11/8
BSP v ISP
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 5286
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
I don't have any data, but in the meantime...
In theory BSP overround should average to 100%, whereas (according to Google), the industry SP overround averages to around 1.7% to 1.9% per runner.
Applying this to a 10 runner race BSP overround would average to around 100% whereas industry SP overround would average to around 118%.
This would be across the whole book however, and doesn't take into account your specific price range. In my experience the variance between the two SPs has a direct relationship with price. The higher the price, the greater the variance is likely to be.
In theory BSP overround should average to 100%, whereas (according to Google), the industry SP overround averages to around 1.7% to 1.9% per runner.
Applying this to a 10 runner race BSP overround would average to around 100% whereas industry SP overround would average to around 118%.
This would be across the whole book however, and doesn't take into account your specific price range. In my experience the variance between the two SPs has a direct relationship with price. The higher the price, the greater the variance is likely to be.
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 5286
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
More specifically Google says the estimated BSP on an 11/8 industry SP fav is around 2.45 to 2.55.
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getagrip68
- Posts: 56
- Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:56 pm
I have a dataset of a few thousand races with the morning line prices for fancied horses taken about an hour before racing, the average BSP for horses between evens and 11/8 is roughly 1.067x that of the morning line price.