Kelly Vs Staking to a target profit

[Tiger]

Following Peter's superb advice I have always staked to a liability or profit target and it works well.

However I'm not sure if and how this is compatible with the Kelly staking theory - that seems to be for fixed or traditional flat staking.

What staking system do people who bet to a liability/profit use?

[ShaunWhite]

Kelly is an option but you'd need to know the value you're getting (actual probability vs price you're trying to get) pretty accurately, and errors in that are amplified as the price increases. Kelly imo is designed to prevent a wipeout when betting relatively infrequently, a product of the era in which it was developed. It's use in a highly stake limitted markets, placing 100s or 1000s of bets a day is debatable. When you find a solid edge then the issue is getting as much on as possible rather than trying to scale back from that.

Liability staking is (again just imo) a perfectly reasonable approach, it's well aligned with volatility at any given price and it smooths the effect of betting over the largest possible price range on your pl.