Is It All About Finding Positive EV Bets?

[JustLukeYou]

Is finding positive EV bets the only way to make money long term from betting?

[jamesedwards]

Predominantly I think the answer is yes. It's certainly the fundamentals of how I operate. Although, I guess it's possible to profit on a trade entered at a -EV position if you think the market will move even further into -EV territory. Eg if you're a scalper then you don't care about EV, just whether or not you expect the market to move in a certain direction.

[ShaunWhite]

If you're looking at a gain with no downside (aka green or free bet) then that's the epitome of +ev whether it's done deliberately, or inadvertently via the net position resulting from multiple bets. Where the red and green numbers meet is the average price you've achieved, that needs to be better than 'now' or a price in the future, as the nature of value is that it varies over time. Eg 5/1 in the morning would be value if the tissue is evens and the market shortens, but 1.1 is also value if it's just about to cross the line in front. (see EMH)

If in doubt it's also the fact that all bets are settled individually (your bet history doesn't have market totals) and value bets are the only way to make 000s of them add up to a profit. Betting 101.