Thing to consider on a dobbing system?

[steevjp]

I think i posted this in the wrong forum previously, hopefully this is the right one

Hi,

I’ve ben watching an old video from Peter here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvu7wO90Fwo – re taking a losing strategy and making it a winning one. the thing here was laying a market (in that case tennis). But it got me thinking. Would I need to consider something like this on a market where I back?

I am currently using a basic Dobbing system I created in Bet angel, it’s for very small stakes just to test but I wonder if I can improve that basic system.

Currently I use fixed stakes on it, but Peter constantly seems to advise that a fixed stake (at least with laying isn’t ideal) so should I be looking at different stakes depending on the back odds? They are very varied.

The 2nd question is, if I should using varying stakes, how would I incorporate that into the rule that I have created?

Lastly, are there any other things to consider? Like aa stop loss for example?

Yesterday a bet on 9 races, or which 6 were matched, but of course the 3 losers wiped out most of the gains

[Dallas]

The name dobbing come from the strategy name 'DOB' (Double or bust)

So as the name suggests you are aiming to 'double' your stake (the selection trades in running at 50% of the price you backed it at - usually SP) or lose it all 'bust'
Therefore you wouldn't look to be using any stop losses or varying your stake

If you then had 6 successful DOB'd from 9 bets you'd be up by 3 times whatever stake you were using minus commission

[steevjp]

OK thanks, that makes sense, ill review the P&L i am sure the balance was about the same after as when i started, i may be wrong though.

I guess in that case if it is a pretty simple rule is that it is down to the selections i choose, which is a whole new world of hurt

i saw there was a dob with moving exit rule which i looked at and was trying to understand its makeup

[Dallas]

OK thanks, that makes sense, ill review the P&L i am sure the balance was about the same after as when i started, i may be wrong though.

I guess in that case if it is a pretty simple rule is that it is down to the selections i choose, which is a whole new world of hurt

i saw there was a dob with moving exit rule which i looked at and was trying to understand its makeup

If you had a loss it means that you've never let each trade run and either cut it short before it dobbed or used a stop loss

Yes, making a profit from Dobbing is solely about selection choice.

The dob with moving exit and reverse dobbing bots are just variations - which there are many others.
A popular variation is to look for less (or more) of a price move
ie, looking for the price to shorten 25% to make half your stake means you'll get a higher strike rate but to profit overall you'll need to achieve more than twice as many successful dobs than you have losers (busts)

[steevjp]

Do you think it is worth adding a condition that says something like

If the selection has shortend by X number of ticks in the last 60 seconds (before going in play) to place the bet, and if it hasnt reached that criteria to ignore the selection.

or maybe

if it has shortened by x number of ticks in the 1st 10 seconds of going in play to place the back bet with the dob rule to work as normal afterwards (i am thinking that the selection is heading in the right direction in terms of price movement)

or am i just complicating something that doesnt need to be complicated

[Dallas]

Do you think it is worth adding a condition that says something like

If the selection has shortend by X number of ticks in the last 60 seconds (before going in play) to place the bet, and if it hasnt reached that criteria to ignore the selection.

or maybe

if it has shortened by x number of ticks in the 1st 10 seconds of going in play to place the back bet with the dob rule to work as normal afterwards (i am thinking that the selection is heading in the right direction in terms of price movement)

or am i just complicating something that doesnt need to be complicated

Pre-off movements are driven by speculation whereas In-running movements by how the horse is actually running, so the two are not directly related.

Years ago in jumps racing you could look for the runner/s lining up near the front and that would often guarantee a shortening of price up until the off which then continues in-running at least until the first fence, but now because they all start in a line those days are gone.

One of the key things you are looking for is a horse that's going to run well usually from the front or at least be prominent, there's a few websites which will give you information on a horses running style (front runner, hold up etc)

There are also others like winning warlocks which show how often a runner has traded X% below its SP in running
https://www.winningwarlock.com/in-runni ... tings.html

If you look at the 16:00 at Weatherby 'Jack Doyen' has traded at half its SP price 19 times from 24 runs (79% of the time), making him a good DOB
If his running style is prominent and there aren't any (or many) other runners in the race that also like to lead to challenge him then that makes him an even more interesting runner to DOB

Remember though just because a horse has done something (or not done something) in previous races it doesn't mean they will this race.
Its just about gathering as much info as you can, piecing it together so that in the case of traditional Dobbing you are able to be right more times than your wrong

[steevjp]

thanks for that resource, indeed it is like the stock market, price gains in the past are no indication of price gains in the future, but thi website excelllent, thanks