Which strategy is better

[azfyazfy]

Back first lay second or lay first back second
Gives your honest reply

[Euler]

It's entirely market timing and odds dependent, there is no strategy one better than the other. It's completely dependent upon the market state.

[ForFolksSake]

You could also have a strategy that 'Backs' and 'Lays' at the same time...

[Kai]

A straight back or lay strategy can work too

But you would probably need the WHY behind the backs and lays to call them a strategy

[ShaunWhite]

Back first lay second or lay first back second
Gives your honest reply

If the price is drifting then lay first, if it's shortening then back first.

But one consideration might be trading for a few ticks around the step changes. Eg where a profitable back earns you 0.01 per tick when it shortens but loses 0.02 per tick if it drifts. (ie if you backed at 2.0). That said odds are just probability so a move from 50% to 48% or 52% are equally likely so you'd get more ticks one side than the other but the same payout.

The only other one I can think of is greening an existing free bet situation in a drifting market, the hedging lay will be at a bigger and bigger price and the hedged amount will get smaller as it drifts. But all situations have an opposite so without typing all that again for the reverse, just bear it in mind.

[azfyazfy]

Thanks for your replies guys
But what I need is probability distributions.
For example on Tennis match 10000 trials on favourite which strategy is better.
Back first or lay second or lay first or back second.

[Euler]

The far too simplistic approach. If you look at every single tennis match, you'll end up more or less exactly at break-even, If you're just backing or laying.

[tico]

Hi,
Back or lay doesn't matter ,it's your ability to anticipate if the price is going one way or another.This is the essence of trading.Take a scenario where we have a weak favourite at 2/1(Industry SP) then all of a sudden the price shifts to 5/2 ,the likelyhood of the second favourite coming in with BF is going to increase so you act accordingly despite what money is available at higher prices.This example is just one of many and the secret is trying to second guess the direction .Sometimes you haven't a snowballs hope in hell of anticipating the direction of a move and othertimes it stands out .
That's about the only advice I can give (as a recent convert to trading) but there are lot's of other pointers,if you immerse yourself in Peter's vids there are lots of nuggets of wisdom .But ultimately it will be instinct that gets you there.
Kinders
Tico

[megarain]

Modern markets are very much about momentum and match-ups.

if a batter is historically good/bad against a certain type of bowling, the market may well adjust as a new bowler comes on etc.

There are a myriad of factors.