Prediction markets - Kalshi and Polymarket

[northbound]

Meanwhile, liquidity on the prediction markets is absolutely staggering—sometimes you can see $10 million available to trade immediately.

Not always.

Let's take Polymarket.

If you want to place a bet, it's very easy and there's tons of liquidity but as a taker you pay a fee.

But if you want to enter with a limit order to pay zero fees then you'll often have to wait a very long time to get filled by a taker.

Like on Betfair.

But I agree with you that Betfair shot themselves on the foot over the years.

[ForFolksSake]

'UK weighs lifting ban on US prediction markets' - the Times.

Can't read as behind a paywall so don't know if there's actually any evidence of this happening but would be an absolute killer blow to Betfair/BD/Matchbook etc.

How many years does the Betfair Exchange realistically have left? Matched volume appears to have collapsed and may be at its lowest level ever. Far too often, even in major sports, I find myself first in the queue without getting matched for more than pennies.

Perhaps the smartest move would be to sell the Exchange to Kalshi or anyone willing to buy it before it is too late. Betfair may have no real option left except to start paying major traders and institutional clients to provide liquidity, but the biggest prediction markets already do that. With the Exchange now available in so few countries, what could Betfair possibly offer that would persuade them to come?

Many people seem to blame affordability checks and other responsible-gambling restrictions, but Betfair destroyed its liquidity by withdrawing from one country after another. Meanwhile, liquidity on the prediction markets is absolutely staggering—sometimes you can see $10 million available to trade immediately. Betfair did not lose its dominance because people stopped wanting to trade; it lost it by shutting the doors on its own customers.

... Matched volume appears to have collapsed ...

Largest today

Pre-Play = 275865

In-Play

20260907_HiVol.JPG