With Betfair tightening it's grip on customers becoming more restrictive with KYC, internal automotive systems triggering low deposit limits, forced check-ins with the Safer Gambling team, loss limits being applied to winning accounts (myself), and seeing big accounts like megarain get moved on from Betfair.
Despite wanting to scale on Betfair I would not be a true risk manager if I didn't start considering external options just in case (or ideally as a way to further grow Betfair profits which can't go back into the market).
One such idea after a brief bit of research today is trading the close of the major stock indexes.
I have selected the Nikkei in this case as the times work well for me here in Australia.
The graph below shows the rise in volume after the lunch period. As the volume begins to increase and we approach the estimated fair close price for the day (yellow line on graph), I was thinking of using a DOM interface and just get a bit of experience in the market, ultimately trading on feel via one click market orders once up and running, similar to a Pre-Race horse racing market e.g. via Nikkei 225 Mini (futures).
I haven't got much experience in the financial markets but on principal, so long as I can avoid major catalysts it appears viable on the surface. Does anyone have any thoughts on if this seems a reasonable conquest, or have any other alternate suggestions for markets or trading strategies which could be useful for me to consider? I also considered breakout trades on the open but I like the idea of rising volume more.
Day Trading the close like a Pre-Race Horse Racing market
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ForFolksSake
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... nice bit of researcheightbo wrote: ↑Sat Oct 03, 2026 12:41 pmWith Betfair tightening it's grip on customers becoming more restrictive with KYC, internal automotive systems triggering low deposit limits, forced check-ins with the Safer Gambling team, loss limits being applied to winning accounts (myself), and seeing big accounts like megarain get moved on from Betfair.
Despite wanting to scale on Betfair I would not be a true risk manager if I didn't start considering external options just in case (or ideally as a way to further grow Betfair profits which can't go back into the market).
One such idea after a brief bit of research today is trading the close of the major stock indexes.
I have selected the Nikkei in this case as the times work well for me here in Australia.
The graph below shows the rise in volume after the lunch period. As the volume begins to increase and we approach the estimated fair close price for the day (yellow line on graph), I was thinking of using a DOM interface and just get a bit of experience in the market, ultimately trading on feel via one click market orders once up and running, similar to a Pre-Race horse racing market e.g. via Nikkei 225 Mini (futures).
I haven't got much experience in the financial markets but on principal, so long as I can avoid major catalysts it appears viable on the surface. Does anyone have any thoughts on if this seems a reasonable conquest, or have any other alternate suggestions for markets or trading strategies which could be useful for me to consider? I also considered breakout trades on the open but I like the idea of rising volume more.
Screenshot_20261003-211541.png
The biggest difference between Betfair and financial markets is that Betfair markets are very short-term, with a defined ending point, whereas financial markets are often continuous.
There are similarities between the two, but a lot of institutions find small edges through execution biases and the sheer volume of money that they put through the markets. That makes finding those edges a little bit tricky. You have to be much more creative than that.
A friend of mine worked for a Wall Street firm, and his entire role was just trying to find ways to trim a few milliseconds off an execution. They paid him handsomely for doing that.
When you look on Betfair, there's no real edge in doing that, as the infrastructure that they've built isn't designed or charged on that basis.
There are similarities between the two, but a lot of institutions find small edges through execution biases and the sheer volume of money that they put through the markets. That makes finding those edges a little bit tricky. You have to be much more creative than that.
A friend of mine worked for a Wall Street firm, and his entire role was just trying to find ways to trim a few milliseconds off an execution. They paid him handsomely for doing that.
When you look on Betfair, there's no real edge in doing that, as the infrastructure that they've built isn't designed or charged on that basis.
Alright thanks, I can't imagine it would be as easy as turn up and trade but ultimately my logic was if the price is moving from A (open) to B (close) and you dip in and out without carrying overnight risk, there should ultimately exist some indications in the information as to what's >50% for direction, especially as volume increases, and if you couple that with a market order entry I could see it being + if you found the right setups. Expecting to potentially have to automate that process as well. The scalability of it is honestly the main appeal.
Assuming it'll take a good chunk of dedicated effort for even the chance at creating something useful over there so I'll chuck it on the backburner for now and I'll post any updates in here if I make progress on this in the future for example a demo account trial week.
Assuming it'll take a good chunk of dedicated effort for even the chance at creating something useful over there so I'll chuck it on the backburner for now and I'll post any updates in here if I make progress on this in the future for example a demo account trial week.