Defining the trend

[Iron]

'Part of the problem you may be having in defining a trend is that trends do not exist.

Like the past and the future, a trend is merely an idea. There is no such thing in nature. Trend is an idea about the overall average historical direction of prices; trend is a convenient way to view history; trends do not indicate the direction of prices in the moment of now, or even exist in the moment of now.

Furthermore, the methods you use to define trend (to view history) are entirely up to you, so you get to define trend any way you wish; everyone may have a different idea of "the" trend.

Let's say you make a graph the volume of air in your lungs. If you define trend by the one-second average, your air volume trend may change several times per minute. If you define trend by a 90-day average, then your air volume trend may gradually increase for several decades and then decrease.'

Ed Sekyota - Trend follower & market wizard

Profound...

Jeff

[mister man]

he clearly hasnt got powerpoint, or if he has he never produced a graph with a "they dont exist" trend line.

cant have looked at betfair much either to see trend lines on most markets.

tbh though i cant see much call for lung capacity trading.

no trends in nature will be a big wake up call, to the global warmers, and scientists, and those that say we cool down and heat up here on earth over thousands of years, hence the glaciers forming the landscape we have today.

If only the man put on earth to gamble, mr seykota had been here earlier to set us all straight..

i bet his first names rodney (what a plonker)

[Iron]

he clearly hasnt got powerpoint, or if he has he never produced a graph with a "they dont exist" trend line.

As a trend following market wizard, I'd be surprised if Mr Seykota hadn't seen a trend line. His point was far more subtle...

no trends in nature will be a big wake up call, to the global warmers, and scientists, and those that say we cool down and heat up here on earth over thousands of years, hence the glaciers forming the landscape we have today.

Whether there's such a thing as man-made global warming is debatable.

If only the man put on earth to gamble, mr seykota had been here earlier to set us all straight..

i bet his first names rodney (what a plonker)

Rodney had a brother who kept dreaming about becoming a millionaire in 12 months' time.

Seykota turned $5,000 into $15,000,000 in 12 years.

Jeff

[mister man]

he follows trends and yet states their is no such thing..

can this man add anything else to his list of nonsense..

apart from hypocrite,......i certainly smell something if not a rat

maybe hes a lot taller than me.

modern day confucious he says

Crowded elevator always smell different to midget.

[Iron]

The truth is a multi-faceted jewel.

Trend followers aren't interested in following trends, so much as exploiting market over-reactions. You don't need to spot trends to follow trends. Trendlines, moving averages, etc merely help you exit the market quickly when it turns. Trend following is reactive, not predictive.

You know it makes sense Rodney!

Jeff

he follows trends and yet states their is no such thing..

[mister man]

trends dont exist, according to your mr seykota

i cant see how something that doesnt exist can be reactive or proactive, its just not their...

[Photon]

Let's say you make a graph the volume of air in your lungs. If you define trend by the one-second average, your air volume trend may change several times per minute. If you define trend by a 90-day average, then your air volume trend may gradually increase for several decades and then decrease.'

I must say, and agree with mister man, that this is utter garbage and employing mystic Meg type of language to describe a complex financial topic that is easily be swollowed by gullible people. Each word and sentence is so vague and devoid of any meaningful analysis. Reading Page 3 of The Sun is much better than reading this rubbish.

Trend following a zero sum game where there are some winners and plenty of loosers and you're not going to be winners by reading this rubbish. You'll be better of by reading Nassim Taleb or Benoit Mandelbrot.

[Iron]

Again, you misunderstand quite a subtle position.

Trends are historical. We can say 'a market moved from A to B'. We can label that a trend. We can't say what the market 'is trending' because that implies that you have some knowledge of where the market is going. If you did, you'd be extremely wealthy.

Jeff

trends dont exist, according to your mr seykota.

[mister man]

Let's say you make a graph the volume of air in your lungs. If you define trend by the one-second average, your air volume trend may change several times per minute. If you define trend by a 90-day average, then your air volume trend may gradually increase for several decades and then decrease.'

I must say, and agree with mister man, that this is utter garbage and employing mystic Meg type of language to describe a complex financial topic that is easily be swollowed by gullible people. Each word and sentence is so vague and devoid of any meaningful analysis. Reading Page 3 of The Sun is much better than reading this rubbish.

Trend following a zero sum game where there are some winners and plenty of loosers and you're not going to be winners by reading this rubbish. You'll be better of by reading Nassim Taleb or Benoit Mandelbrot.

cheers photon, i knew i couldnt be alone, somethings are just too ridiculous for words.
tbh im just so sad that these people manage to con others, and get any credance..

[Iron]

Mister Man

'cheers photon, i knew i couldnt be alone,' - With that comment, you demonstrate the human tendancy to want to be in agreement with other people, and that is partly why trend following works.

People who get angry at belief systems should ask themselves if they're angry because the beliefs are wrong or because they might be right...

Jeff

[SpikeyBob]

Reading Page 3 of The Sun is much better than reading this rubbish.

You mean there are actually words on page 3 of The Sun?

[superfrank]

You mean there are actually words on page 3 of The Sun?

Yeah, News In Briefs...

[convoysur-2]

superfrank
u made me laugh ,nice one
marc

[walshy]

Whatever Keeley says is fine by me...

[James1st]

'Part of the problem you may be having in defining a trend is that trends do not exist.

Like the past and the future, a trend is merely an idea. There is no such thing in nature. Trend is an idea about the overall average historical direction of prices; trend is a convenient way to view history; trends do not indicate the direction of prices in the moment of now, or even exist in the moment of now.

Furthermore, the methods you use to define trend (to view history) are entirely up to you, so you get to define trend any way you wish; everyone may have a different idea of "the" trend.

Let's say you make a graph the volume of air in your lungs. If you define trend by the one-second average, your air volume trend may change several times per minute. If you define trend by a 90-day average, then your air volume trend may gradually increase for several decades and then decrease.'

Ed Sekyota - Trend follower & market wizard

Profound...

Jeff

Although I respect Ed Sekyota, this quote, taken out of context, makes it look like he doesn't know what he is saying. To claim that "trends" do not exist and then to define the very same as a 90 day average is a contradiction.

I suspect Mr Sekyota was merely trying to claim that a trend is not recognisable until it has happened.

It is a trend if a significant number (outside the average) of women begin to wear their hair in a pony tail or that house prices have been moving in the same direction for a considerable period of time. In nature the propensity of humans to grow taller and have less body hair than our predecessors is a real and measurable trend.

Whilst it is true that a "trend" can only be labelled in the past tense viz a trend has developed, it is not impossible to predict that a trend may develop or indeed that a current trend may continue. So again, Ed is gramatically wrong in claiming globally that a trend cannot exist in the "now" or in the future.

In respect of trend trading prices or odds, it is both an art and a skill to recognise that a trend "may" develop; that a trend is happening "now" or easiest of all, that a trend has been in existance for some time. It is also an art and a skill to assess a trends capacity to run its course and to predict exactly where the current trend will end (or reverse). No one can do this with any certainty but with practise it is possible to be right enough times to make it profitable.

A trend is simply the noticable outcome of a majority of measurements leapfrogging each other such that they deviate from the average by an ever increasing distance.

As you are aware Jeff, I live in the world of trends; identifying the circumstances under which they develop; recognising them whilst they are happening and predicting when they will end or slow down. They are very real to me.