psycho040253 wrote:JollyJollyGreen wrote:Also, you were quite correct about me being "lucky" so please don't think my reply was in anyway a sleight on you or the comment you made.
I only go on the value of the horse and the price yesterday was a joke as he was not proven. Connections obviously know he is fit and well, hence leaving him in at Ludlow today. The problem with a lot of punters though is they will forget the previous 3 or 4 times (probably more) they backed him and he lost and just remember today's win. When they check their balance sheet they forget they are still losing.
He had jumping trouble at the first, second and fourth today. Yesterday, he didn't get away with it. Today he did. So, do you back or lay the little fella?
I'll probably have an odds cut off for this one.
< 2/1 - worth laying
> 2/1 - probably worth avoiding
A strategy that would have worked yesterday and today would have been to have layed at the off and then traded out when he fluffed a fence. Let's face it - he hits enough of 'em. After today, he should start plenty low enough NTO - depending upon his opposition
Psycho
Southwell 12:40 - is this value?
-
psycho040253
- Posts: 109
- Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 9:29 pm
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Yesterday he shot out to around 4-5 after just one fence. He's not a big horse so any mistake hits him hard
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
You will notice that our friend Esteem let punters down yet again today 14:05 Leicester. I do not rate the young lad Peter Hatton who almost stepped off him at the 3rd last. You have to laugh at the ATR pundit who still wanted to suggest he would have won despite having a lot to do.