Victor Chandler Chase 3:10 Ascot

[JollyGreen]

I wrote the other day about value in a race and this market throws up another runner to question. I cannot understand why Al Ferof is so short in the betting? He's a good horse but he's basically a novice taking on more experienced horses. On his last run he just beat For Non Stop and was long odds on. That horse has subsequently let the form down but 4.5 is still the general price on offer.

To me Finians Rainbow is a worthy favourite and I would not be surprised to see him sent off around a ~2.76 favourite.

So back to Al Ferof. I think he is priced on what he might be capable of rather than what he's achieved thus far and the fact he is trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Ruby Walsh. I am not saying he cannot win I am just saying he is no value at the price of 4.5 and really he should be near 5.5 - 6.0 and if you look at form and ratings then he should be a similar price to Gauvain who is priced at 7.5! To be honest I rate Gauvain, Somersby as better than Al Ferof with Wishfull Thinking and Forpadydeplasterer as at least his equal. The latter has been deemed a professional loser but long standing members of this forum will remember when I gave him as the likely winner of the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham - he duly obliged. Basically this horse must have give in the ground to be seen at his best and sadly he has rarely had it. When he run on soft ground his record is impressive and whilst he may not win today, he is not a professional loser and by no means a back number.

I think if Finian's Rainbow has a clear round of jumping he wins this race and 3.25-3.50 is a stand out price to me as I think this horse should be 2.66-2.76.

As always this is merely my opinion and I have been wrong before. Good luck in whatever you chose to do.

[Stewart]

Tend to agree with you JG has having backed Al Ferof for the supreme last year it was his stamina that won him the day.

However, unlike PN to throw novices in against seasoned pros. When I first looked at the race I was looking to take the front two on, but the more I look the more I think that the winner comes from the front two. Small dutch for me likely, hopefully via race trading profit! Good luck

[JollyGreen]

Well it never ceases to amaze me how punters will simply follow the money.....over the cliff in this case! I was stunned when Al Ferof was made joint favourite.

Okay so I was wrong with Finian's Rainbow, he was just run out of it but Al Ferof was beaten after 3 fences and never travelled. I am sure he needs further to be seen at his best and does not look to have the speed to lay up with the best 2 milers.

[Iron]

Was it definitely punters rather than traders who caused the steam?

Is there any way of telling whether a move was caused by punters or by traders (for example, by the average size of the stakes)?

Thanks

Jeff

Well it never ceases to amaze me how punters will simply follow the money.....

[JollyGreen]

Punters Jeff, it was all the rage at the track as the lemmings were heading for the cliff!