SNIPERS

[convoysur-2]

im finding that in the smaller markets where the cockroaches seems to be an infestation of these cockroaches ,especially in the late night football markets ,brazil ,argentina and chile ,i love messing with them ,if you dutch for small steaks say 100 per time ,it confuses them because your not not trying to get matched on the other side ,and the greedy little cockroaches take the money and run off with it ,and move things about seems like there saying ,ok now ive stolen this where will i hide it,and the dutcher gets matched ,its all turned out to be good fun...
Marc

[JollyGreen]

Yes, value trading is the only way to beat the manipulators, unfortunately knowing which horses are value requires a very high skill level (i.e. detailed knowledge of UK horse racing).

That's patently untrue. I know pro traders who happily admit that they know nothing about the horses they are trading, and work solely from the information in the ladders and on the charts...

Jeff

Jeff

I think Zenyatta was talking more from a betting point of view as trading is not their chosen method. If you have an idea about the correct price based on form etc then you are less likely to be worried about manipulators and their effect on the market.

Personally I would rather embrace their shenanigans and aim to profit from them when I am trading. It generally evens out over time so it's not worth stressing about.

If I am backing or laying a horse based on my assessment of the form then I am not concerned about the price. If I am laying and it gets smashed in price then I am happy to lay it for more at lower prices. If I am backing and it gets forced out then I am happy to back more at higher prices.

I know plenty of players who lay a horse but then close their position and carry a loss because the price shortens. That's crazy to me because what is the point of researching the form, race and market only to exit when it moves against your opinion.

Just my 2 penny's worth!

JG

[runningman]

I hate snipers.
those people who wait like a poison snake waiting for its prey ,those people who wait for victims to put there money in the market and they take it and move the market to lay it off,im sick of them, like school bullies they use there strength to push people around ,there strength is the money ,i hope i win the lottery soon ,just so i can take there money and mess them around, i dont think its fair play,??
marc

Hey Convoysur

I disagree with the opening statement of the thread. Snipers (manipulators) are just using a strategy the same as every other trader does. I think it can be very dangerous to single these guys out as it will be more personal when a trade goes against you. The first rule of trading is to have no emotions and accept that the market is always right no matter what happens.

Manipulators employ their strategys when certain criteria are met and the majority are fairly easy to spot. Your mission is to find out why they do what they do and when!! Then you will have a decent edge over them.

I have been trading the greyhound markets for some time and am doing really well in them now. Because of the low volume, manipulation is very easy to spot and so I have had some great practice in dealing with it, I also practice manipulation myself and am getting some very decent results

Moral of the story is never look at market movement with emotion!! either positive or negative!! They move how they move and are always correct, accept that and good luck

[superfrank]

i agree that manipulation creates great opportunities for value traders (they've probably never had it so good).

things have got more difficult for pure price action traders imho, although i've always been very sceptical of WoM having seen a spoofer trade first hand.

i wonder if some of these manipulation tactics have now been automated by some bright spark (the flashing spoofer is obviously an automated strategy, but i think there are others now).

one of the tactics i see more and more of is the sustained and relentless backing of front runners (not just very near the off as in the past, but from several mins out turning it into a gamble of sorts). i guess this is a relatively safe strategy as the price will more than likely contract early in-play.

[Zenyatta]

I know plenty of players who lay a horse but then close their position and carry a loss because the price shortens. That's crazy to me because what is the point of researching the form, race and market only to exit when it moves against your opinion.

Just my 2 penny's worth!

JG

Yeah, Jolly, I was really guilty of this, and I believe it's what stopped me being successful for so long. My attempts to apply stop-loss was a complete disaster (especially the automated stop-loss), and hence I don't stop-out any more in most cases. If only I'd trusted myself from he start, ignored the market, and simply never exited until the off, the data shows I'd have made a ton of money instead of a loss. I've learned a long and painful lesson, and will certainly heed your advise from now on.

[Alpha322]

Yes, value trading is the only way to beat the manipulators, unfortunately knowing which horses are value requires a very high skill level (i.e. detailed knowledge of UK horse racing).

That's patently untrue. I know pro traders who happily admit that they know nothing about the horses they are trading, and work solely from the information in the ladders and on the charts...

Jeff

i do, although i know a bit about the horses trainers etc, but i dont look at that anymore like i use to when i picked up a paper and went to the local bookies, i do exactly what Jeff says the ladder and price movements are my friend couldnt careless who wins the race or football match dont even care about the teams or where there playing

[Zenyatta]

Hey each to their own Alpha and Jeff, but I think value trading has the potential to be much much more profitable than simply following the price movements (I think Jolly has demonstrated that).

[Iron]

Do you think it's ever possible for you to be confident that you know more than the market, whose price takes into account both information in the public domain as well as that known only by connections?

Jeff

Hey each to their own Alpha and Jeff, but I think value trading has the potential to be much much more profitable than simply following the price movements (I think Jolly has demonstrated that).

[LeTiss]

Kicking myself really

I ended up making £22.98 on Oosthuizen by greening up at 3.35 when it neared it's conclusion.
2 holes before however, my finger was hovvering over the confirm bets window when I was about to green up at 1.61 for £69.44 profit.

I decided to let it run because I fancied him to finish the job

Bloody idiot - I posted this on the wrong thread!!

[74.5]

Do you think it's ever possible for you to be confident that you know more than the market, whose price takes into account both information in the public domain as well as that known only by connections?

Jeff

Suppose that connections subtly talk down the chances of the horse.Up go the odds because the market begins laying it.When the odds are good and high,in comes the connections and start backing it because they know that the horse is a fit as a lop and has a good chance of winning.In this case,the odds increase a relatively large amount due to the market laying it and fall a relatively small amount due to connections backing it.

IMHO,the market believes what it is told to believe-not only by connections but by the press also-which is why I don't read/listen to what the connections say/press prints.
74.5

[Iron]

Hi 74.5 -

The market can be very stupid sometimes. Often people will bet for a horse because it's an odds-on RP nap, or because there's a big steam on and they assume that someone knows something. But on a macro level, the market is extremely efficient, and IMHO very few people are sufficiently skilled at handicapping to be able to beat the market over time through looking at fundamental factors (form, ground, draw, weight carried, etc).

Jeff

IMHO,the market believes what it is told to believe-not only by connections but by the press also-which is why I don't read/listen to what the connections say/press prints.
74.5

[Zenyatta]

Do you think it's ever possible for you to be confident that you know more than the market, whose price takes into account both information in the public domain as well as that known only by connections?

Jeff

Look at Jolly Green's Lay tips. He gets very few wrong no? I'm a backer myself. And the answer is yes, I can be very confident I know more than the market, because I've been at it for nearly 2 years.

P.S I've come to the conclusion that the connections of the horse are often the worst judges of their own horse. From the thread on Trading Quotes:

"If ever an owner should tell you, "Back mine" -- don't you be such a flat.
He knows his own cunning no doubt -- does he know what the others are at?
Find out what he's frightened of most, and invest a few dollars on that."

[Iron]

Look at Jolly Green's Lay tips. He gets very few wrong no?

JG may be one of the few people who can be sure when the market has got it wrong. But I'd need more than a handful of posts of say one way or another.

A mate of mine used to be a pro layer. Then suddenly he went months and months where he made very little money, and he eventually became a trader. What may have happened is that the market eventually became more efficient, and starting taking into account the factors he took into account which gave him his edge.

I'm a backer myself. And the answer is yes, I can be very confident I know more than the market, because I've been at it for nearly 2 years.

I have a spreadsheet which shows I made a 15% level stakes profit backing horses at 9/1 and above, over something like 5,000 horses. The chances of my edge being due to randomness must be something like one in a trillion. However, I am now back in 9 to 5 work, as I had a long run where I made absolutely no money. The point I'm making is that, even if you have a spreadsheet showing an overall profit, and you've done Chi squared analysis that shows that the profit isn't due to luck, there's nothing to say that the market or racing itself won't change, and eliminate your edge.

P.S I've come to the conclusion that the connections of the horse are often the worst judges of their own horse.

If a connection were to advise me to lay his selection, I wouldn't, as he might be telling me that as he wants people to lay it, so he can back it at a better price. But if I were at my local bookie, and say a stable lad placing a £100 bet on a horse trained by his yard, then I'd definitely be betting!

Jeff

[andyfuller]

If a connection were to advise me to lay his selection, I wouldn't, as he might be telling me that as he wants people to lay it, so he can back it at a better price. But if I were at my local bookie, and say a stable lad placing a £100 bet on a horse trained by his yard, then I'd definitely be betting!

Jeff

May I suggest you never visit Newmarket. You won't have any money left if you were to use your stable lad theory

[lesblakeman]

At least 9 out of 10 late "gambles" are on course bookmaker "lemming" scams , no "real" money involved at all.