I'm not that keen on Saturday's as the authorities usually manage to make most of the races clash. I have placed a few orders for lays and bets and I'll let them run.
This race interests me because they're betting almost Even money about the front two Noble Mission and Ibtahaj. That is simply a bookies dream but I am probably going to pass. I have looked briefly at this race and the obvious thing is that neither are likely to enjoy the soft ground. They are both well bred and clearly well regarded judging by their entries for the Derby etc but that isn't proof enough for me to part with money.
It could end up being a race where none of the horses handle the going so one of these two will win. Would you bet even money on that result? I know I wouldn't! You have to take a lot on trust with this type of race. Has a horse matured over the winter, have they trained on, did they have any problems?
I wanted to post this just as food for thought - do not be surprised if we get a supposed shock result in this one! The prices of the front two could cause some decent moves for trading as punters switch between the two.
JG
21/04/12 Newbury 1:30 - Upset on the cards?
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Basically very few of these handled the ground. Captain Cat was backed into 1.3 a furlong from home, Ibtahaj 2.4 and he was never winning, Cappielow Park touched 4.1 and the eventual winner went out to 17.5 in running.