Hey guys,
First time i am trying the long term market trading as in trading the winner market on this years Euro Cup.
I stumbled across something and just wanted to hear others opinion on if it could be a good bet/long term trade.
The bet/trade is om Germany being the Euro Cup winner.
Its currently trading at 3.8 and Spain at 3.8.
I have checked up with the other sites there is, this os what other bookmakers put Germanys odds to:
Williamhill: 3.00
Bet365: 3.50
Ladbrokes: 3.25
Betfred: 3.5
And so on. Yet Betfair is giving 3.80, where there currently is a HUGE lay stake blocking the price somehow.
When you look at it, Germany is playing for a 1st place in the group so they can avoid meeting Russia in the quarter finals, so they will deffinetly win or draw against Denmark.
If they proceed, they are up against either poland or the chezh, which they also should beat. So semifinals at least in my world, and still giving back 3.80 for a winner currently? Is this a great value bet or what is it that i am missing since some guy are putting a huge lay bet in on them?
Please feel free to give an opinion on my analysis. I deffinetly think they should be around 3.50 or lower.
Germany - Winner
-
convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
the huge lay bet is more than likely just a trader,probably means nothing,
Marc
Marc
-
convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
there is only 17 grand there,and 2,500 lay on top of it,normal enough ,not a bad market to be involved in with 13,5 million traded already ,
-
DKDaytrader
- Posts: 18
- Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:57 pm
Yes, i know its a trader, but isnt this the worst price to get involved in on the lay side? Even trade out, when the next two matches pretty much looks the easiest so far?
That is my point. I really cant see who will throw Germany out before the semifinals. A team full of confidence proceeding with max points if beating Denmark from one of the toughest groups.
Taking on either Poland or Czech in the quarterfinals.
The price has drifted even further. I am looking to trade out at 2.50-2.80.
That is my point. I really cant see who will throw Germany out before the semifinals. A team full of confidence proceeding with max points if beating Denmark from one of the toughest groups.
Taking on either Poland or Czech in the quarterfinals.
The price has drifted even further. I am looking to trade out at 2.50-2.80.
-
superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
maybe people are thinking that the price will drift if and when Spain qualify.
3.9 seems like a reasonable bet though.
3.9 seems like a reasonable bet though.
-
smartypants59
- Posts: 34
- Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 12:41 am
Hi traders, ive been reading your views on germany moving in on price i would like to explain a few things before u go laying it could be risky?! just to let u know alot of the players that are in the german team have had a busy season and might not live up to the expectation eg. muller, swanchstiger ect.yes they do have gomez however im not sure they will win so many matches for the price movement. spain look a better option and the will def move in on price. all im trying to say is that u might be expecting too much. 
-
smartypants59
- Posts: 34
- Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 12:41 am
Fair point mugsgame u have a point alrite. from my experience in these kind of tournaments there is usually a schocker. eg chelsea and barcelona not too long ago. however u do make a valid point.
-
DKDaytrader
- Posts: 18
- Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:57 pm
Mugsgame,
This is a swing gamble trade. My entry and exit depends on the results Germany make/have made yes. Why?
This is second time i have jumped on a long time market. This trade has nothing to do with the technical part. This is simply the fan in me hoping we get a new winner this year.
This is a swing gamble trade. My entry and exit depends on the results Germany make/have made yes. Why?
This is second time i have jumped on a long time market. This trade has nothing to do with the technical part. This is simply the fan in me hoping we get a new winner this year.
Remember:
All these football players and teams are professionals. They receive the very best treatment in the world.
It is not like they play 90mins, then have to go home, wash their boots, rush down a microwave meal then deal with the kids.
fitness should not come into your calculations. Injurys yes, fitness no.
I have watched every game and the Germans looks strong, very strong. As do the spanish. From what i have seen. It will be a Germany and spain final.
and another good point made here. Make a list of who you think can beat German or Spain. From what i have seen. no-one.
All these football players and teams are professionals. They receive the very best treatment in the world.
It is not like they play 90mins, then have to go home, wash their boots, rush down a microwave meal then deal with the kids.
fitness should not come into your calculations. Injurys yes, fitness no.
I have watched every game and the Germans looks strong, very strong. As do the spanish. From what i have seen. It will be a Germany and spain final.
and another good point made here. Make a list of who you think can beat German or Spain. From what i have seen. no-one.
-
CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
I wasn't really impressed by Germany, but I reckon they are a strong team all the time.
Having so many players from Bayer that had a troubling end of the season wouldn't make me too confident backing them, but we have a saying here, a football match has 90 minutes, and in the end Germany wins!
Having so many players from Bayer that had a troubling end of the season wouldn't make me too confident backing them, but we have a saying here, a football match has 90 minutes, and in the end Germany wins!
-
smartypants59
- Posts: 34
- Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 12:41 am
what was i saying about germany a few weeks ago?sometimes i wonder why nobody listens to me? germany put under pressure are not as good as people think... it was free money guys