Change in behaviour

[superfrank]

in the past we had phases of
1.flashing money
2.bombing
3.spikes
4.manipulation
5.huge lays
6.wall of money

i feel the same person is behind them all, rather then phases of each we now see a random mix on a daily basis with manipulation the current fav

that's just traders with deep pockets trying out new strategies. in the past we've had bouts of this stuff and then the market gets back to 'normal' (probably after said traders realise it doesn't pay in the longer term).

i think this is different and something closer to the exchange itself rather than rouge traders.

[mcfc1981]

if it was traders trying out new strategies why do these same strategies keep returning?

[superfrank]

if it was traders trying out new strategies why do these same strategies keep returning?

why would they not?
they may have been tweaked and returned for another try or others may have thought of the same thing and tried it.

[mcfc1981]

more then 1 bomber 1 flasher

[mcfc1981]

and now it begins 1st stop wall of money

[andyfuller]

Have to say I am with MCFC on his point, i feel the flasher and bomber are the same but I don't think we should take this thread down the line of discussing all of that.

I am intrigued to hear what Peter has noticed as of July 1st.....

[Euler]

I've had a curious afternoon today. Flying along till 4pm then it's like a switch was flicked and the market changed within a couple of races.

[Euler]

I am intrigued to hear what Peter has noticed as of July 1st.....

We have written an app to test the market in great depth. When we can see the results of that we will know. Till then it's just conjecture about what has changed.

At the moment it's curious that some stuff seems relatively unaffected, as are volumes; so that's confusing.

[PeterLe]

Anybody notice a change in behaviour on Betfair? By my estimate is that it started on the 1st July and has persisted since then.

Just interested if anybody else has noticed?

Hi
I can't be as specific as the 1st July, as the systems I'm using are still doing OK (ish), so we are obviously doing something different.
My main observations are that prior to and when XM was introduced, it was possible to offer money to the market (with the XM option in Betangel switched on OR Off) and bets were matched fairly frequently.
For the six months or so after XM was introduced, surprisingly it had a positive effect (we was all expecting it to be negative). Then slowly it reversed and has declined for the last 12 months.
If I had to summarise it, it would be "When 'offering' money to the market, the frequency at which your offer will be met, is significantly less that it was". A bit woolly I know, but I can think of how else to express it.
Either one entity is making bucketfuls of money or more likely betfair are intercepting those opportunities themselves.
In those six months post XM I made hay, but often wondered who it was I was taking that money from? Maybe Betfair recognised the opportunity and skimmed those bets themselves?
Anyone else notice anything similar in the 6 months post XM?
Regards
Peter

[mcfc1981]

16:10 newcastle
was when it changed for the day, wall of money was the 1st sign.

[superfrank]

Have to say I am with MCFC on his point, i feel the flasher and bomber are the same but I don't think we should take this thread down the line of discussing all of that.

I am intrigued to hear what Peter has noticed as of July 1st.....

not sure how you can be so sure. but agreed (we've done that one to death).

[jimrobo]

The hour between 5-6 has been awful for me for a while. I actually drop my stakes for this hour now it got so regular! I just put it down to the crossover of the markets from the pros to the more casual punter when they get back from work. They seem to settle down after 6

[superfrank]

The hour between 5-6 has been awful for me for a while. I actually drop my stakes for this hour now it got so regular! I just put it down to the crossover of the markets from the pros to the more casual punter when they get back from work. They seem to settle down after 6

+1. i find that the liquidity really tails off in this period. markets feel like those for amateur ladies races.

[andyfuller]

Anyone else notice anything similar in the 6 months post XM?
Regards
Peter

Yes as I think you know I and also i know of one other person who made significant profits from the introduction of XM and likewise it lasted about 6 months before the opportunity to make money from it began to disappear to now where I stopped looking for it as it became as rare as hens teeth. I remember the first day it when it was trailed, I think from memory it took one race before I got all excited. It would be interesting to go back through the forum and find the thread from that period I guess.

I remember really looking forward to the flat season thinking with the extra racing it was going to be insane but unfortunately that was pretty much when the opportunities started to diminish, just glad it came for a bit but wish it had lasted.

[marksmeets302]

Funny, I thought it was just me..

Up till July my equity curve was as straight as a ruler. After that first a fierce upswing, then my first losing week in more than two years, and this volatility continues to this day. My win% has dropped, but on average my PnL hasn't, UK horseracing is affected, but not US and AUS. Greyhounds are also a bit lagging in terms of PnL, but I can't imagine something changed there. I notice it especially on one of my more aggressive strategies. The swings in PnL are remarkable. I have no idea why though, but to be honest I haven't made an effort to investigate. Next week I have a couple of days off and might do that, but having to choose between fixing something for betfair and making new exciting stuff for betdaq, I know what to pick.

Mark.