Profiling Events

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PeterLe
Posts: 3729
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Although it would be nice if JollyGreen was able to provide us with likely movements/trades each day; its not going to happen... :(

I was wondering whether the seasoned pros use such services (ie Proform for the horses etc)...to determine entry/exit points. I know some full timers swear by them; but wondered whether others have found benefits too?

I have tried Proform with good results (for two months). However, I found they were conflicting with something else I was doing and decided that I would stick to what I was doing as it was producing bigger wins. In Fairness, I probably chose the wrong time to test the product as I was mad busy with work and didn't perhaps get deep enough under the bonnet as I might..(i'm not sure two months was long enough either)

Im particularly interested in hearing about football profiling too. As it is fundamentally different than horse trading ie there are only a couple/few key events in play that change the odds/direction

Regards
Peter
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mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

Peter
I may be able to help you here, football profiling is something I do a lot of. In fact I have just written an article for http://www.premier-betting.com/. You can see it here http://www.betformpro.com/blogspot/half ... ning-edge/ if your interested.
This details how profiling can be used to find value in the HT/FT market. I did another for the BTTS market too which is here http://www.betformpro.com/blogspot/both ... g-winners/

The possibilities are endless. I am working on another article that looks at where goals are scored in matches. This is a license to print money. I traded the Wolfsburg / Bayern game last friday. I made the case for the trade and made a video of the trade. Thats on my blog http://www.quiteamug.co.uk/the-basic ... f-a-trade/ It's very basic for someone like yourself Peter, but it makes the point I think.

Sorry for all the links and plugs. But I'm proud of my work. I having been sharing my ideas for years on this forum, so I think I have earned it. (Not sure you will all agree :) )
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PeterLe
Posts: 3729
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Thanks Steve
I'll have a good look over that this evening.

Although I will def revisit the profiling on the horse racing side of things, i was particularly interested in the football as probably less than 1% of my lifetime profits have come from football, and I cant help feel like I'm missing out!

Over the last four weeks I've taken a different approach to football and had my best month ever in that category. When you think about it, there are only a few events in play that will change the odds/direction, so in theory it should be possible to nip in and out and do quite well at this. Especially as we know which direction the odds will travel.
The problem I have always had is one of thinking that this is 'gambling' and went against the logic side of the brain given everything I've put into practice on the horse racing side of things!
Hence my reasons for wanting to try profiling; If I could predict what a "value entry point was" it would enable me to trade with conviction and not in conflict with the logic side, if that makes sense?

Anyway, thanks for the reply and good luck with the blog (you're a braver man than me)!
regards
Peter
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Consty1
Posts: 331
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

I'm following you on Twitter mugsgame, hadn't even realised you were the same guy as on here!

I'm MConsty1 btw.
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mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

Thanks Peter,
Football is becoming more and more important in my portfolio of betting strategies. Horse ladder trading is making my hair turn a grey so I have been looking for more stress free alternatives. As football is my favourite sport it's a double bonus. I wonder how many get away with saying "your working" when your watching a match. I say it now even when I'm not. It buys me peace and got me out of washing up more times than I can remember :)
The blog is a leap into the unknown for me. I am always shouting my mouth off as you know :) so I thought it would give me a good platform to shout from lol. So far so good, had nearly 1000 unique visits in less that a week, and very positive comments. So it really has exceeded my expectations. It's hard work to keep writing though. Even after less that a week i have massive respect for PW who's blog has been going for many years fresh content and a reason to go back regularly. My motive is education really. Every time I meet someone new and we start to talk about work I am inundated with questions. people are really interested in learning how to make money at it, but don't know where to begin. So that's where I am hoping to help. You don't realise how much knowledge you accumulate until you start to write about it. We have skills many of us take for granted.

Crack on with the Fottie mate, you'll do well at it I'm sure. I'd welcome some feedback from you re:my articles. It would be good to get some perspective from someone I respect. If it's good post it here. If not PM me :mrgreen:
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Consty1
Posts: 331
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

I can't help thinking that you're giving away too much on your blog mugsgame, especially your Fulham v Stoke trade analysis.
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mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

Consty1 wrote:I'm following you on Twitter mugsgame, hadn't even realised you were the same guy as on here!

I'm MConsty1 btw.
cheers :) is that @itsamugsgame ?
There's another guy called @itsamugsgame1 - his bio is hilarious
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mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

Consty1 wrote:I can't help thinking that you're giving away too much on your blog mugsgame, especially your Fulham v Stoke trade analysis.
The thing is, and it has been mentioned lots over the years. That those you know don't want to give away their edge or share their hard work.
I don't think it's true at all. I have a problem with people who turn up and expect it as a right because they have bought Bet Angel for a period. But if you freely offering it there's no issue.

I am just trying to show some of the ways you can make money, the methods and skills that are required to be a pro trader. The truth is there isn't that much of a gap between being pro and a good trader who has full time employment. In fact they overlap a lot.

I get the impression that most traders think the only way you can profit is on the ladder going race to race. I aim to blow that myth by showing there are lots of ways that do not involve ladders.
I will stick in some ladder trading too at some point though :)
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