Grand National 2013 - EDIT: Final list now posted!

[JollyGreen]

Well most of you on here will know I love this race and I seem to do pretty well each year. I am not saying I will manage the same this year but I am trying to get 1 2 3 4 again. Last year I had Sunnyhill Boy beaten a nose by Neptune Collognes who I eventually struck out from my list as I felt the ground wouldn't really suit him.

This year I started with a list of 11 qualifiers for my draft list and I have been whittling them down. I am stuck in the Brecon Beacons so I am relying on sporadic 3G internet. Here goes!!

The obvious one is On his own who has the size and scope to handle the National fences. He was going okay last year when he came down at Becher's on the second circuit. Sadly, the Mullins/Walsh combination will drive the price too low and anything below 11.0 (10/1) would not make it on my final cut. You could of course keep it in your final choice but I would not bet a horse below 10/1 around the National course.

Seabass is a huge athletic horse that ran a cracker last year eventually finishing 3rd. It looked the likely winner at one stage but seemed to drop back when they approached the elbow and then tired quite quickly. Perhaps the horse saw too much daylight so connections may try and find a bit more cover. This horse looks to have a cracking chance of providing the first lady jockey winner!

Sunnyhill Boy reminds me of the great Red Rum, a small horse but a real athlete than can handle the fences. He has a way of plotting the right course and finding a good rhythm. He will probably be buried in the rear until he is produced late. I see AP McCoy has chosen Colbert Station which IMHO is slightly strange as there needs to be a lot taken on trust about that runner!

Cappa Bleu is another monster of a horse and also a safe conveyance. IMHO I think the jockey made an error on this horse last year. Okay, he was badly hampered at the Foinhaven fence and he probably needed time to find his confidence and recover but I am of the belief he was given too much time and given too much to do. He was staying on all too late last year and finished 4th. I feel he would have been a lot closer had his pilot made his move earlier. In fact this is the horse I would put to the top of my list as he is now 2lb lower than last year and has been trained with this race in mind. With a clear round I really fancy this one to go close!

I am slightly stunned by the price of Becauseicouldntsee because I have him as a 14/1-16/1 chance in my book. This is another large horse who is a safe jumper overall BUT he must settle!! He has fallen twice around the National fences, in 2011 he fell at the 2nd after he went off like the devil himself was after him. Last year he was looking more settled and was unlucky to be badly hampered at the Canal Turn and had no chance to stand up! He's on the same mark of 140, he's 10 now and he seems to settle more on his races. I reckon at 66/1 he will give you a great run for your money.

I wanted to give a tentative chance to Treacle but I am slightly concerned by the recent run being on 16/03/13 as it may not be sufficient time for him to fully recover. I will give him a mention but he doesn't make my final list which is as follows

1. Cappa Bleu
2. Seabass
3. Sunnyhill Boy
4. BecauseICouldntSee
5. On His Own - if he is 10/1 or bigger

Good luck if you play, feel free to add your own thoughts.

JG

[Euler]

Seabass, Sunnyhillboy and Teaforthree for a few quid.

[Deeppockets]

Seabass for a place!!!

[PeterLe]

Thanks JG, Its a big ask, but if you are anywhere near last year that will do for me!

..Just a long Shot, but did anyone capture the in play prices last year? (in Video format I mean?). Thanks in Advance

Bloody Hell - There are 84 Runners! Going to have to build a new spreadsheet!

[Golfer]

Thanks JG, always appreciate your insight and the effort you put into these race previews.

The one race a year where I enjoy a punt!

[bobalski]

Excuse my ignorance from the other side of the world, but when is the Grand National run? Date and time.

Cheers

[Dublin_Flyer]

I used the stats from googling Grand National Trends and listed all runners in a spreadsheet. Then eliminating by age, rating, number of runs in chases, number of wins and a few others to make up 16 points total on a 1 or 0 basis for each.
After 9 steps of elimininations I had the field down to 4, but Quinz is a NR so my 3 are:
1)Chicago Grey, 15 points from 16
2)Rare Bob, 13 points from 16
3)Ballabriggs, 13 points from 16

Best of luck to all

[MyOldGran]

Excuse my ignorance from the other side of the world, but when is the Grand National run? Date and time.

Cheers

Good question. I had to hunt high and low myself on the internet before I could find that one out.

But after a few nanoseconds I found this which may help:

Saturday 6th April 2013

1.10 The Aintree Legends Charity Race (Flat) 1m5f
1.45 The John Smith's Mersey Novices Hurdle (Grade 2) (Ch4) 2m4f
2.15 The John Smith's Maghull Novices Steeple Chase (Grade 1) (Ch4) 2m
2.50 The John Smith's Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) (Ch4) 3m, 1/5f
3.25 The John Smith's Handicap Steeple Chase (Listed) (Ch4) 3m1f
4.15 The John Smith's Grand National Steeple Chase (Grade 3) (Ch4) 4m4f
5.10 The John Smith's Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) 2m1/2f
5.40 The John Smith's Champion Standard NH Flat (Grade 2) 2m1f

The one at 4:15 is the race you may be referring to. The times are GMT+1, laughingly known as 'British Summer Time'

[James1st]

I didn't get why Jason Maguire held Ballabriggs up last year since he doesn't have the pace to come from behind. Perhaps it was the extra weight and faster ground that forced his decision but today he is back to GS going with only 2 lb more than his winning run in 2011. I expect Jason to ride him closer to the pace and as an expert and safe jumper, he might just hold on to win again. He looks far better than the 23's on offer.

[Vaardgrim]

Personally not sure if Becauseicouldntsee will stay the trip.

He didn't get up the hill at Cheltenham, if my memory serves me correctly - I know its a harder track but its also not over 4m!

[JollyGreen]

Personally not sure if Becauseicouldntsee will stay the trip.

He didn't get up the hill at Cheltenham, if my memory serves me correctly - I know its a harder track but its also not over 4m!

I think it was the ground at Cheltenham as he's stayed 4m at Cheltenham. This horse needs good ground or ground on the good side of good/soft whereas at Cheltenham the ground was on the slow side. Admittedly there is a concern but at 66/1 I think it's a chance worth taking.

[JollyGreen]

I didn't get why Jason Maguire held Ballabriggs up last year since he doesn't have the pace to come from behind. Perhaps it was the extra weight and faster ground that forced his decision but today he is back to GS going with only 2 lb more than his winning run in 2011. I expect Jason to ride him closer to the pace and as an expert and safe jumper, he might just hold on to win again. He looks far better than the 23's on offer.

I think they must have been concerned about the welter burden of 11st9lb last year hence holding him up. He also made a few mistakes around the Canal Turn and I think that cost him. He ran on well though. I did have him on my penultimate list but I struck him out as he's now 12 and still has 11st4lb on his back. If he was on 11st or lower I would've included him. As you say, he's a safe conveyance and I would not be surprised to see him make the places.

Sadly, you have to cut some and take your chance.

[Euler]

Channel 432 ladies day coverage at Aintree

[sweetybt]

That could have been a nasty incident if anybody had been trapped under that faller.

[herbie]

Anyone have any pre-off trading stats on last years national please? Interested in how much is traded... what the volume per second average is .. say 10 mins out...5 mins .. and in final min... and how that volume is distributed across the field.