But there's a strong correlation between the quality of the idea and the experience of the person giving it.Ferru123 wrote: With greatest respect, that's a closed minded attitude. The quality of the idea is independent of whom it comes from.
Jeff
Discuss Trading Mistakes & receive Feedback
Is there?Consty1 wrote: But there's a strong correlation between the quality of the idea and the experience of the person giving it.
An expert might give a view that 50% of experts disagree with, and a novice might come up with an 'out of the box' approach that no-one had thought of because they'd been looking at the market through a particular paradigm.
If I were Switesh, I would also ask himself why, if his approach of simply trying to apply what pros say actually works, he is still needing advice from people. It's not the case that he simply needs practice - he's put in many, many hours of practice already. I would say that he needs a paradigm shift, and that's not going to come from closing his mind to possibilities. If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always had...
Amateurs built the Ark; professionals built the Titanic!
Jeff
Jeff, you should be presenting 'The Wright Stuff' whilst the host is currently in Australia....you're a wind up!! 
Why do people pay £400 to attend a Peter Webb course, when they can get information for free on the internet? - it's because Peter is the king of trading and is worth paying money to listen to
Switesh, doesn't want responses from people who don't do the job, or can't do the job. He wants responses from traders who knows what they're talking about, and are going to help him
Nothing wrong with that at all, so stop making a big deal of it
Why do people pay £400 to attend a Peter Webb course, when they can get information for free on the internet? - it's because Peter is the king of trading and is worth paying money to listen to
Switesh, doesn't want responses from people who don't do the job, or can't do the job. He wants responses from traders who knows what they're talking about, and are going to help him
Nothing wrong with that at all, so stop making a big deal of it
I'm not going to address that specific example.LeTiss 4pm wrote: Why do people pay £400 to attend a Peter Webb course, when they can get information for free on the internet? - it's because Peter is the king of trading and is worth paying money to listen to
However, to use a different analogy, let's say you paid Ronnie O'Sullivan to give you snooker coaching.
He might know instinctively exactly what to do in a given situation. However, unless he can explain the underlying dynamics and principles to you in precise terms, it might not benefit you.
If you asked him to look at a video of you playing snooker, he might not even be able to pinpoint where you could improve. The fact that he can play the game to an extremely high level doesn't necessarily qualify him to critique other people's approaches.
Also, let's say that O'Sullivan had some secret killer technique that gave him an edge over his fellow pros. Is he going to share that with you, and risk diluting the edge?
NB I'm not implying anything about Peter's course.
He's hoping that the people he's competing against will give him the techniques needed to help him win some of their share of the money in the pot. I wish him luck with that approach, but I don't like his odds...LeTiss 4pm wrote: Switesh, doesn't want responses from people who don't do the job, or can't do the job. He wants responses from traders who knows what they're talking about, and are going to help him
Nothing wrong with that at all, so stop making a big deal of it
Jeff
Forgive me, but you're acting like a moderator/forum owner!
People can post whatever they want (within reason)!
Jeff
People can post whatever they want (within reason)!
Jeff
switesh wrote:So far stevequal's made some relevant comments. If we can keep the thread clean and get back to the subject at hand please.
James, Mugs, jimrobo, Jolly, hgodden, Euler - any comments on the video?
I've only watched the first 30 seconds but the favourite is far shorter than the 2nd fave so it is far more strong in the market than the 2nd. the fave comes into 2 and breaks it. Thats a huge level of support. If it breaks with a volume spike then fair enough it might come back and turn around but it broke with sustained momentum and pretty easily. There is your main signal. Sure it might go back up if the 2nd fave carries on in but its the stronger runner and its just broken major support. That means you have to wait and see whether it is strong enough to turn the 2nd fave back out or if the 2nd fave is strong enough to turn it back round. Either way if it breaks 2 in momentum then assume it will probably go to at least 1.9. I've not watched past 30 seconds so I don;t know if thats what happens further into it.
My spin Switesh, even though Racing isn't my speciality, is that you lost confidence in the trade. You were right initially, the favourite was going to drift, but you quickly closed out for a loss when starting to panic. Once the favourite was drifting considerably, you could esily have recovered your red screen, but were either too pissed off to get back in, or you just lost confidence
Switesh.switesh wrote:Video (no commentary): 27Nov2013_Ling - 2 Failed Swing Attempts
Both my Entry decision to lay the fav at 2 were based on seeing the money backing the 2nd fav. My decision to cut out for red was also based on the fact that the fav was showing signs of breaking below its trading range.
Experienced & Active Traders please enlighten me on where I missed the obvious.
It took me a while to establish which race this was (12.30 Lingfield) as your VT is low quality and difficult to read (although the time says 23.30?)
I have no idea why you based your entry on a disconnected backed 2nd fav (although it did fall from 5.9 to 5's) but its dropping may or may not affect the fav's odds. Often what happens to other runners fails to affect the odds of the favourite, so there can be no fast rule here but I would never use it as an entry trigger.
The fav opened at 2.28 (2.24 to 2.3) and held steady for a long time (actually a very long time..3.75 minutes) before dropping sharply on a volume of almost £60,000. Not something you want to stand in front of, choose a Fiat not a Lamborghini if you want a slower death.
There were only 2 points at which you could have expected to see a rebound and they were 2.02 and 1.9. The 2.02 rebound only went up to 2.08, a sure sign that an even bigger drop is imminent. Only when the odds reached 1.9-1.92 was there any chance of a reversal or rebound and the £70,000 that then drove its odds back up to 2.44 made for a swing trade par excellence.
Randomly trying to catch a falling knife when you aren't wearing gloves and don't know how far the ground is away, is a risky strategy.
Switesh,
This is what happened.
The horse you were trading Epic Voyage had a lot in hand on figures, though the form looked suspect and he hung very badly last time out and looked like he could be a bit of a pig.
However, he was wearing blinkers for the first time(in the hope they may sharpen him up), and his form was still at a higher level than the others and up to around 3 and a half minutes to the off,he was being well backed, steadily shortening from 2.26 to odds on.
At around 3 and a half minutes to go ATR cut to the adverts,the horse in question was in shot in the little box and he looked very keen going to post. I think a few people noticed this and took a chance laying him.He immediately drifted from 1.94 ish to over 2. Then he seemed to overshoot the start and the jockey looked to be having trouble holding him.Again he drifted a little further.
This wasnt mentioned on ATR when they came back on air with about 2 minutes or so to off time, though plenty of people had clearly seen it. With the drift in place and the expert in the studio pointing out that the favourite looked a bit suspect from a form point of view etc the momentum carried on and it carried on drifting pretty much up to the off.
The others all shortened purely on account of the fav drifting.
This is what happened.
The horse you were trading Epic Voyage had a lot in hand on figures, though the form looked suspect and he hung very badly last time out and looked like he could be a bit of a pig.
However, he was wearing blinkers for the first time(in the hope they may sharpen him up), and his form was still at a higher level than the others and up to around 3 and a half minutes to the off,he was being well backed, steadily shortening from 2.26 to odds on.
At around 3 and a half minutes to go ATR cut to the adverts,the horse in question was in shot in the little box and he looked very keen going to post. I think a few people noticed this and took a chance laying him.He immediately drifted from 1.94 ish to over 2. Then he seemed to overshoot the start and the jockey looked to be having trouble holding him.Again he drifted a little further.
This wasnt mentioned on ATR when they came back on air with about 2 minutes or so to off time, though plenty of people had clearly seen it. With the drift in place and the expert in the studio pointing out that the favourite looked a bit suspect from a form point of view etc the momentum carried on and it carried on drifting pretty much up to the off.
The others all shortened purely on account of the fav drifting.
Oscar called it spot on. Here's my recollection/ thoughts.
The 2nd fav was coming in slightly, but so was the fav. Everything else was weak. The question here in my mind, is if the fav is moving in, even though the 2nd fav was apparently strong against it appeared the fav might come in (you need a stronger signal I think). There was no a huge amount of activity, just a gentle trend. The pictures of the fav travelling to post was enough of a signal for me to think it would reverse. It was as Oscar has already said. This turned everything on it's head. You will see that the 2nd and 3rd favs strengthened on the back of the fav's behaviour.
The drift was sustained.
My question would be why did you think the fav would reverse early on? The warning signs were there was apparently money trying to push down the 2nd fav, but it wasn't really going anywhere, the money was being taken without any real movement. This is where WOM is such bullshit. There was no momentum to go with it. Meantime the fav still moves.
Who knows what would have happened if it had travelled well to post. This is a danger for certain traders who do not have the benefit of pictures (or the ability to understand what they are seeing on the pictures). Graphs are great to a point. But the cannot predict the variables that racing throws up in the minutes before the start of a race.
Many of the graphs we see on the Todays Racing thread have reasons behind the moves (no all though). The way a horse behaves prior to the start probably makes up 75% of them.
Sorry if that a bit vague SW. But it's a long hard road.
The problem with all of this is it's subjective. We all trade slightly differently. What I can make work, others would struggle, and visa versa. It's about finding a style that works for you. There is no "one size fits all".
MG
The 2nd fav was coming in slightly, but so was the fav. Everything else was weak. The question here in my mind, is if the fav is moving in, even though the 2nd fav was apparently strong against it appeared the fav might come in (you need a stronger signal I think). There was no a huge amount of activity, just a gentle trend. The pictures of the fav travelling to post was enough of a signal for me to think it would reverse. It was as Oscar has already said. This turned everything on it's head. You will see that the 2nd and 3rd favs strengthened on the back of the fav's behaviour.
The drift was sustained.
My question would be why did you think the fav would reverse early on? The warning signs were there was apparently money trying to push down the 2nd fav, but it wasn't really going anywhere, the money was being taken without any real movement. This is where WOM is such bullshit. There was no momentum to go with it. Meantime the fav still moves.
Who knows what would have happened if it had travelled well to post. This is a danger for certain traders who do not have the benefit of pictures (or the ability to understand what they are seeing on the pictures). Graphs are great to a point. But the cannot predict the variables that racing throws up in the minutes before the start of a race.
Many of the graphs we see on the Todays Racing thread have reasons behind the moves (no all though). The way a horse behaves prior to the start probably makes up 75% of them.
Sorry if that a bit vague SW. But it's a long hard road.
The problem with all of this is it's subjective. We all trade slightly differently. What I can make work, others would struggle, and visa versa. It's about finding a style that works for you. There is no "one size fits all".
MG
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
I have to agree with Jeff, you should never dismiss comments. If you take 2% from any suggestions that someone offers with any crazy suggestion that helps improves something for you then it is of benefit.
I think by showing the full event afterwards is always easy to pass judgement. I'm not saying any of the comments are irrelevant but I wonder how the answers would vary if you posted only 30 seconds of a video 2 weeks after the race happened.
If you were looking for a swing trade then perhaps you cut it out quickly. The other day when the 70K order came against you, you mentioned you had 5 positions lined up in the market with a minimum of 10 pound tick movements. On this video you have 1 pound tick movements and cut out each time for a few pounds loss. Why?
What is clear is that the second you enter your money both times the market quickly turns against you. At the end of the day, money moves markets. Maybe a lot of everything else that you are seeing is an illusion!
As mugsgame says, everyone does everything a bit different. For me, I like to have my next position in the market so if it does go against me, Im already in a position to start trading my next position. That may be 1 tick, 2 ticks, 5 ticks behind my initial position but i hate just standing there like the virgin mary handing over cash.
I think by showing the full event afterwards is always easy to pass judgement. I'm not saying any of the comments are irrelevant but I wonder how the answers would vary if you posted only 30 seconds of a video 2 weeks after the race happened.
If you were looking for a swing trade then perhaps you cut it out quickly. The other day when the 70K order came against you, you mentioned you had 5 positions lined up in the market with a minimum of 10 pound tick movements. On this video you have 1 pound tick movements and cut out each time for a few pounds loss. Why?
What is clear is that the second you enter your money both times the market quickly turns against you. At the end of the day, money moves markets. Maybe a lot of everything else that you are seeing is an illusion!
As mugsgame says, everyone does everything a bit different. For me, I like to have my next position in the market so if it does go against me, Im already in a position to start trading my next position. That may be 1 tick, 2 ticks, 5 ticks behind my initial position but i hate just standing there like the virgin mary handing over cash.
Sorry I should've mentioned earlier to adjust the Youtube Quality Settings to 1080p HD. This will enable a crystal clear video quality.
Thanks James, Mugs, Oscar for the meaningful comments. I had pictures but probably failed to notice and take into account the fav's behavior prior to start. Good points about momentum & sustained moves. I could've paid more attention to them to time my Entry better.
Thanks James, Mugs, Oscar for the meaningful comments. I had pictures but probably failed to notice and take into account the fav's behavior prior to start. Good points about momentum & sustained moves. I could've paid more attention to them to time my Entry better.
So the feedback that Steven kindly provided about your video wasn't 'meaningful' because he isn't a pro? I'd like to think you weren't intending to be rude, but if I were Steven I'd feel pretty offended by that omission.switesh wrote: Thanks James, Mugs, Oscar for the meaningful comments.
This forum is an arena where peoples of all levels of ability exchange ideas and observations. If you don't want to read the views of non-pros, you don't have to, but there's no need to make them feel unwelcome.
Jeff
