Why are in-play football markets no good for trading?
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CaerMyrddin
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- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
Punters aren't doing a bit less than breaking even, they are the basis of the entire ecosystem we feed from, Frank
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
if you're purely punting on football it's difficult to lose much more than commission plus half the bid/ask (assuming punters always take the money which they don't) given a big enough sample size.CaerMyrddin wrote:Punters aren't doing a bit less than breaking even, they are the basis of the entire ecosystem we feed from, Frank
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mister man
- Posts: 363
- Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 2:10 pm
the delay is beaten regularly, as someone who trades these markets, the number of times ive lost a losing trade 3-8 secs before suspend as oppose to won one 3-8 secs before suspend is at least 10 to 1...
thats no co-incidence, nor am i a losing trader overall...
it must be worth hundreds of thousands per month...
thats no co-incidence, nor am i a losing trader overall...
it must be worth hundreds of thousands per month...
There was one (English)match recently where a chunk was taken after a goal. That could have been for a number of reasons, but It was (rough estimation) £ 10k for 4 tick hoover. It was a bit suspicious because no other money backed it up.PeterLe wrote:
Surely even if you are courtsiding, the 5 sec delay can't be beaten can it?? (or can it??)
Even live radio is only fractionally behind the live event (but not possible to beat the delay this way either)?
Last weekend I was trading the cup games on terrestrial itv .I’m not 100% sure what the delay is on terrestrial itv now days ,but I was getting beaten by about 3 seconds. Which seems very slow for terrestrial.
I normally trade using analog radio and even that seems to be slow now days. Maybe it’s just my reactions.
It is possible to beat the suspension using analog radio. Its very rare but it is possible.
Betfair don’t always use the best feeds. I have seen terrestrial matches ahead of betfair feeds. I’m judging that by the suspension delays ,not facts. Then if you’re on a market with a slow reacting button presser. You can beat the suspension .
Don’t get me wrong, in general there is no major clock beating, but it does seem to be getting more border line. It certainly feels like there are snipers in the markets.
I have found trading football much easier than the horses, plus the fact that weekday evening games suit my work schedule.
I think that football is a different type of trading whereby you can use multiple markets to hedge your positions and look for a percentage. You don't need an edge for that style of trade. Of course this can lead to many scratches, which some might feel a waste of time and effort after almost two hours of work. Time is what has the biggest impact of the football markets.
michael
I think that football is a different type of trading whereby you can use multiple markets to hedge your positions and look for a percentage. You don't need an edge for that style of trade. Of course this can lead to many scratches, which some might feel a waste of time and effort after almost two hours of work. Time is what has the biggest impact of the football markets.
michael
Thanks DabblaDabbla wrote:There was one (English)match recently where a chunk was taken after a goal. That could have been for a number of reasons, but It was (rough estimation) £ 10k for 4 tick hoover. It was a bit suspicious because no other money backed it up.PeterLe wrote:
Surely even if you are courtsiding, the 5 sec delay can't be beaten can it?? (or can it??)
Even live radio is only fractionally behind the live event (but not possible to beat the delay this way either)?
Last weekend I was trading the cup games on terrestrial itv .I’m not 100% sure what the delay is on terrestrial itv now days ,but I was getting beaten by about 3 seconds. Which seems very slow for terrestrial.
I normally trade using analog radio and even that seems to be slow now days. Maybe it’s just my reactions.
It is possible to beat the suspension using analog radio. Its very rare but it is possible.
Betfair don’t always use the best feeds. I have seen terrestrial matches ahead of betfair feeds. I’m judging that by the suspension delays ,not facts. Then if you’re on a market with a slow reacting button presser. You can beat the suspension .
Don’t get me wrong, in general there is no major clock beating, but it does seem to be getting more border line. It certainly feels like there are snipers in the markets.
You only need half a dozen of them a year! No doubt there is someone on here who is making money using techniques like that..
I'll pay attention next time a game is on.
I keep saying that I will test this at a live game. I must do it this year
Regards
Peter
I have to share this.
A few weeks ago I was trading on an Indian game in the afternoon. I was watching the game on the net when a goal went in but BA did not show the event as suspended. I got a bit worried and I thought that perhaps I was watching the wrong game (it has happened before), but a few seconds later the suspend message came up. Yes I was on the right match but my internet feed was obviously much faster then betfair's. So I waited for a second goal and when it came I hoovered up the unfortunately paltry amounts that were on offer in the correct score market. I was watching the countdown and 2 seconds after the bets were taken the market was suspended. It was a 10 second advantage. As you can imagine I sat there for the rest of the match waiting for another goal that sadly never came, in fact towards the end of the game I was a bit worried of a late goal. By then there were literaly 000's to be picked up but imagine me laying a few grand only to have the goal cancelled because of an offside. Not much chance of recovering from that late in the match, is there!?
Of course, the same feed provider has not managed to offer the same miracle since, but one lives in hope
A few weeks ago I was trading on an Indian game in the afternoon. I was watching the game on the net when a goal went in but BA did not show the event as suspended. I got a bit worried and I thought that perhaps I was watching the wrong game (it has happened before), but a few seconds later the suspend message came up. Yes I was on the right match but my internet feed was obviously much faster then betfair's. So I waited for a second goal and when it came I hoovered up the unfortunately paltry amounts that were on offer in the correct score market. I was watching the countdown and 2 seconds after the bets were taken the market was suspended. It was a 10 second advantage. As you can imagine I sat there for the rest of the match waiting for another goal that sadly never came, in fact towards the end of the game I was a bit worried of a late goal. By then there were literaly 000's to be picked up but imagine me laying a few grand only to have the goal cancelled because of an offside. Not much chance of recovering from that late in the match, is there!?
Of course, the same feed provider has not managed to offer the same miracle since, but one lives in hope
With all due respect, this is a stupid question.
Your own experience may make you feel that you can't trade, but there are thousands of us who do, and I always profit out comfortably each month. I bought several football trading strategies, many in-play and they work well for me!
I trade 80% in play - I find by reading the position and scalping with skill, I end up with decent profit on a good sized bank.
Your own experience may make you feel that you can't trade, but there are thousands of us who do, and I always profit out comfortably each month. I bought several football trading strategies, many in-play and they work well for me!
I trade 80% in play - I find by reading the position and scalping with skill, I end up with decent profit on a good sized bank.
That's Frank told!ray131262 wrote:With all due respect, this is a stupid question.
Correction: They have worked well for you. Whether they will continue to work well remains to be seen.ray131262 wrote:Your own experience may make you feel that you can't trade, but there are thousands of us who do, and I always profit out comfortably each month. I bought several football trading strategies, many in-play and they work well for me!
If you think you have succeeded over far too many trades not to have an edge, then I suggest you read this article: http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2012/04 ... revisited/
It could well be that, like the draw backers, you think you have found the holy grail when in fact you have found nothing...
Jeff
In the sense of thinking that they are wrong, yes! 
Nothing personal, I assure you; you're not the first person I've disagreed with on this forum, and you won't be the last!
Jeff
Nothing personal, I assure you; you're not the first person I've disagreed with on this forum, and you won't be the last!
Jeff
ray131262 wrote:Jeff,
Sound slike you have an issue with my views on here!
Easy up man!
Cheers