I have looking at a few in play horse racing strategies and I would like to get some advice off some of the pros.
My plan is to lay a horse pre off, should I always green up or only green up if it heads into negative territory.
My thought is that greening up when in the green would hurt your overall profit, as you are cashing in on a 100% profit.
However, it is possible that the horse bolts from the back which may cause cause problems with not getting it matched. How can I ensure that it will always get matched if if goes into red territory?
Cheers burdo.
Should I always green up?
Sometimes in play prices jump so violently you may not have the chance to close your position. Even with an mechanical stop loss.
There are several ways you can take your profit. The priority is always to protect you bank. So getting your liabilities to zero is always the best starting point. You can then let what's left of your profits run, either drip out as the price goes in your favour, or close completely. This depends on your strike rate. The best way is to err on the side of caution and see how it develops. I'd rather have 20% of something rather than 100% of F*** all.
There are several ways you can take your profit. The priority is always to protect you bank. So getting your liabilities to zero is always the best starting point. You can then let what's left of your profits run, either drip out as the price goes in your favour, or close completely. This depends on your strike rate. The best way is to err on the side of caution and see how it develops. I'd rather have 20% of something rather than 100% of F*** all.
Somewhat au contraire to Mugs, and perhaps the truth is somewhere in between.
Stay aware that bookies are interested in premature greens.
When these are offered by bookies it is a CERTAIN signal that mugs (small m!) are being conned. So on Will Hill and other scum websites you will see "Cash Out" buttons, which offer some pennies on the pound of a full win. These days this includes betfair who offer similar trickery on Sportsbook.
The reason for the bookies offering "cash while you can" is to reduce their liability on "outcomes if we're fucked".
And related to this the more volatility the book can show in the winning position the more they will (probably) secure in premature greens.
Stay aware that bookies are interested in premature greens.
When these are offered by bookies it is a CERTAIN signal that mugs (small m!) are being conned. So on Will Hill and other scum websites you will see "Cash Out" buttons, which offer some pennies on the pound of a full win. These days this includes betfair who offer similar trickery on Sportsbook.
The reason for the bookies offering "cash while you can" is to reduce their liability on "outcomes if we're fucked".
And related to this the more volatility the book can show in the winning position the more they will (probably) secure in premature greens.
Peter covered this in his blog a couple of years ago...
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2011/03 ... -green-up/
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2011/03 ... -green-up/
Did he also say premature ejaculation is unwise (as the actress said to the bishop)?LinusP wrote:Peter covered this in his blog a couple of years ago...
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2011/03 ... -green-up/
Thanks for your advice peoples, I will take it on board!
I have another burning question that has been on my mind, I have seen graphs of people getting matched at 1000/1 and winning, why can't I lay the opposite of this eg. Lay at 1.001?
Is this another betfair ripoff?
I have another burning question that has been on my mind, I have seen graphs of people getting matched at 1000/1 and winning, why can't I lay the opposite of this eg. Lay at 1.001?
Is this another betfair ripoff?