1:30 Cheltenham
I like two horses in this race Jered and Dave's Dream. If you cast your mind back 12 months, Jered ran in the Champion Hurdle and he wasn't disgraced. He was hampered in the closing stages but his jockey must have lit the blue touch paper at some stage because he absolutely flew up the run in. This horse loves fast ground so tonight when I go to bed I will pray for no rain
There is a forecast of some rain so I really hope it is just a short shower and not a downpour! He has form on the track, has won a Grade 1 and he comes here fresh and fighting fit. I have a slight concern about the first time blinkers but I always say if they're going to work then it will probably be the first time they're fitted. I think they're probably on to make him concentrate on his fences and not because he's lazy.Dave's Dream is trained by Nicky Henderson and his yard is in fine form. I think he made a mistake last year when he tried to run this horse at Cheltenham when he was knackered from the Imperial Cup. I am sure if he had his time again he would not have run him. Anyway, he has his time again here and this horse comes to this race fresh after a month off. He clearly handles better ground and a big field also seems to suit him and provided the rain doesn't come he should get both in this race. He has the right trip too so this horse must surely go close.
2:05 Cheltenham
This is something of a blindfold and pin job with so many runners in with a squeak and so much skulduggery (in the nicest possible sense) used to qualify for the race. I would just go with Macaillou at a big price. I watched this horse when it ran at Cheltenham and I had traded it that day. The young jockey made an error of judgement in the race because he settled the horse too far out of his ground. By that I mean he thought he was on a motorbike and not a horse so he gave the horse too much to do. He cruised up to them but he must have used too much energy to make up the ground and could only finish a never nearer fourth. I think connections realised their mistake and they should not repeat it. They took the horse to Leopardstown on 23/01/10 and once again the young pilot settled him at the back of the field and gave him a nice spin round. I watched the video of that race and he never got so much as a tap with the whip. It could be that this horse doesn't react well to the whip but let's just say the jockey wasn't exactly hard on him. His worst finish at Cheltenham is fourth so he clearly goes well at the track. This is a difficult race and he's by no means a good thing but at 27 on Betfair he is one you can back with a view to laying off in running because if he runs his race he should be going well as they turn to come down the hill. This time he needs to start his move forward just slightly earlier so that he can gradually get closer rather than trying to make it up too quickly. Heck it is a tough race and he may finish stone bonking last but at a big price I am happy to take that chance!Late edit. I had to leave my desk because my back was killing me. Anyway, I agree with Stewart who has since mentioned Smokin' Aces. He's had a light campaign and his dosage index would suggest 3 miles will suit.This is a tough race so suggest small stakes and look to have a good fun run for your money
14:40 Cheltenham
Another great race and I will take two against the field. Barber's Shop is another runner from the Henderson yard and they were talking for a long time about this being a Gold Cup horse. I had to disagree when I heard that and I was pleased to see they didn't enter him. He ran in the Jewson at last year's festival and went down by a neck in that race. I think the winner idled that day and Barber's Shop was lucky to get that close to him. Last year I feel the mistake was running him twice in quick succession before the Festival. You will notice they haven't done that this year, he ran in the King George on Boxing day and has only had a canter at Newbury. He ran well for a long way in the King George against none other than Kauto Star but he clearly didn't quite get the 3 miles that day! In this race he runs at what appears to be his optimum trip of 2m 5f and he's also fresh and ready to go!
The danger horse is Poquelin who absolutely dotted up here over course and distance. This looks a progressive horse and his run behind Tranquil Sea is also a decent result. This horse excels at this trip and must go close. I am dissapointed with the price of 4.50 which is far too short really in a race of this nature. I will look to trade these two and let the profit ride. I'll probably green up in running because I usually like to take the money but don't be surprised to see these two fighting out the finish!
Now for some more controversy. I said Master Minded wouldn't win and he didn't even make the first three home. I felt we had seen the best of that horse and that proved to be the case....
15:20 Cheltenham
Big Bucks will not win....there I've said it again
He never made it as a chaser and suddenly came to life when they went back over hurdles and stepped him up in distance. I cannot knock his record too much because he's won plenty of these races. However, I think he's looked good because he's been beating trees! That is because this is a rare distance and I remember a recent edition of The Morning Line when Ted Walsh (Ruby's father) alluded to this fact and said it was not a great achievement. If you look back at the previous winners like Inglis Drever, Barracouda etc they were also horses that had their quirks. The latter had to be put in front right on the line or he would stop and the former always came off the bridle and had to be rousted along! It is typical of horses that contest these long distance hurdles and there are plenty more horses that fit the mould, Lough Dreg, Deanos beano etc etc.
So Big Bucks has looked good because he's had no decent opposition to beat - until now hopefully. Tidal Bay is another horse that looked likely to set the world on fire having won the Arkle two years ago. However, like Big Bucks he couldn't maintain it over fences and his form just fell away. Also like Big Bucks he had a change of plan and he came back to hurdling. That is nothing new but then he went to Cheltenham on 31/01/10 and ran in the 3 mile Cleeve Hurdle. He ran with his head up in the air as is normal with him, was pushed up to join the leaders approaching the last and then ran away from his rivals after a few taps with the stick. His run was not smooth on the home bend and he had to pull wide to avoid slowing rivals. The time of that race was simply phenomenal and it is the best I have seen in many a year. In fact I have checked the same thing for Big Bucks and he is not as fast. Now before we all start putting our house on Tidal Bay we have to factor in his quirks. He does travel with his head in the air and he can be a bit awkward when push comes to shove. I am not sure if he is a horse that does not respond well to the whip. What we must accept is he has won a Grade 1 race and he was the next big thing - if he could cope with fences. He couldn't so here he is taking on Big Bucks and finally he is a horse that can really give the favourite a run for his money. Until now there hasn't been a serious rival but now there is one so it's going to be interesting.
Katchit also could hustle the favourite because he didn't appear to have the best preparation for the Cleeve Hurdle and didn't look to enjoy the ground. If the ground remains good then this little horse could improve again. His trainer was out of form when the Cleeve Hurdle was run and this horse was probably hindered by a lack of preparation due to the poor weather. It wouldn't need too much improvement for this horse to take a hand in the finish so that's two horses that will be trying to lower the colours of Big Buck's
The favourite will probably hose up now without coming off the bridle but I certainly would pay to find that out, especially not at 1.75
4:00 Cheltenham
This is another trappy race that I started assessing when I had the entries but I couldn't sit at my desk last night so I have added this summary this morning. I will look at two horses in this race in the shape of I'm So Lucky (we hope) and Sunnyhillboy. The latter won a shade cosily last time out at Ludlow and comes into this race in fine form and he's well handicapped. I'm So Lucky has been aimed at this race by his trainer and it is my belief that he has put Our Vic in this race off top weight to keep the weight down for I'm so Lucky. He was travelling well at Cheltenham on 01/01/10 and he was making stealthy headway towards the leaders when he was hampered by a falling horse and bought down. I was there that day and he would have gone very close to winning. His trainer is very shrewd and he put him away after that run to protect his handicap mark. he must have a real live chance today at a double figure price.
I need to get in a hot bath - I have a back problem so I'll add some other races later!
