Im wondering if taking prices below or above the mean will draw an edge?
Often you see the SP below or above the mean price with a large proportion of the money away from the current price.
In addition, if reversion to mean exists ..... are we more likely to get a back to lay for drifter In play?
What do we think?
The mean price and value
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tomallen123
- Posts: 113
- Joined: Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:52 pm
The more money that is matched, the more accurate the market should become.
It's amazing with so many different views on a market that it ends up accurate, the first time i heard this i didn't belive it. I suppose it's just lots of people with good views on what is value and eventually pushing it there?tomallen123 wrote:The more money that is matched, the more accurate the market should become.
Its called the wisdom of the crowd, have a google as there is an interesting story about people guessing the weight of a cow.
I am sure Peter will confirm but he once mentioned that the accuracy of the SP decreases as the time past the start time increases.burdo77 wrote:Can I assume that true price is at listed off time rather than the actual start time. Surely any drift after the listed time would be just people manipulating the market rather than true money?