Morning..
Just recently JollyGreen has posted some excellent entries forecasting the variance in odds on a selection.
It's not rocket science knowing that money can be made if you were to know the direction of the drift! (The holy grail perhaps?!)..Anyway; Although I know very little about horse racing, I thought that if I were to be able to predict the SP of the horses in the race reasonably accurately(Ie the tissue price?), there could be money to be made from it.
I've come across a web site called adrian massey and wondered whether anyone has an experience of it and whether it is possible to derive the tissue price from it?? I tried to calcualte some SP's from his data last night but the spreads/ratings are relatively close (in real terms). This would be the idael medium for me as his data can easily be copied and pasted into an excel spreadsheet..
Just looking for new systems to add to my existing strategies..any help appreciated in helping the pension fund to increase!
regards
Peter
PS How much does the racing post tips of the day influence drift - I'm sure I know the answer to this, just an open question really....
Tissue Prices..(Forecasted SP's)
Phew Peter this is a can of worms!
My experience of trading was particulary galling for the first 6 months and even now I need to fight my horse racing knowledge re prices/value etc. This is because I come from a betting background and have a good grasp of what is right/wrong/false etc - I traded believing that the market and my opinion on prices would ultimatley match. It didn't and I lost money.
Sometimes I am right re the value and see a movement in the correct direction but alot of the time it doesn't work out. Whilst I still take a view (lay, back or in running trade), such as St Nicholas Abbey in the 2000 Guineas, now for the movement of prices pre race I'll look only at the market (and tv pictures) while trading and not try to second guess it.
Not sure that SP's can be modelled to trade automatically due to all the variables - non runners, going changes, overweights, horses playing up etc etc.
Anthor point is what SP's are your reffering to as the industry SP's and Betfair are totally different. To illustrate look at the result from Bath 3.00 yesterday -this is a typical race.
http://www.timeform.com/free/?CID=24311 ... 5116606145
I know you are only trying to gain an advantage and applaud you for that but not sure that you are barking up the right tree
My experience of trading was particulary galling for the first 6 months and even now I need to fight my horse racing knowledge re prices/value etc. This is because I come from a betting background and have a good grasp of what is right/wrong/false etc - I traded believing that the market and my opinion on prices would ultimatley match. It didn't and I lost money.
Sometimes I am right re the value and see a movement in the correct direction but alot of the time it doesn't work out. Whilst I still take a view (lay, back or in running trade), such as St Nicholas Abbey in the 2000 Guineas, now for the movement of prices pre race I'll look only at the market (and tv pictures) while trading and not try to second guess it.
Not sure that SP's can be modelled to trade automatically due to all the variables - non runners, going changes, overweights, horses playing up etc etc.
Anthor point is what SP's are your reffering to as the industry SP's and Betfair are totally different. To illustrate look at the result from Bath 3.00 yesterday -this is a typical race.
http://www.timeform.com/free/?CID=24311 ... 5116606145
I know you are only trying to gain an advantage and applaud you for that but not sure that you are barking up the right tree
Stewart wrote:Phew Peter this is a can of worms!
My experience of trading was particulary galling for the first 6 months and even now I need to fight my horse racing knowledge re prices/value etc. This is because I come from a betting background and have a good grasp of what is right/wrong/false etc - I traded believing that the market and my opinion on prices would ultimatley match. It didn't and I lost money.
Sometimes I am right re the value and see a movement in the correct direction but alot of the time it doesn't work out. Whilst I still take a view (lay, back or in running trade), such as St Nicholas Abbey in the 2000 Guineas, now for the movement of prices pre race I'll look only at the market (and tv pictures) while trading and not try to second guess it.
Not sure that SP's can be modelled to trade automatically due to all the variables - non runners, going changes, overweights, horses playing up etc etc.
Anthor point is what SP's are your reffering to as the industry SP's and Betfair are totally different. To illustrate look at the result from Bath 3.00 yesterday -this is a typical race.
http://www.timeform.com/free/?CID=24311 ... 5116606145
I know you are only trying to gain an advantage and applaud you for that but not sure that you are barking up the right tree
Hi Stuart,
I expect your right re barking up the wrong tree and it def shows a lack of understanding on my part! I know very little about horses (I didnt even know there was a difference between industry SP and Betfair!).
Maybe I should put this one on the back burner until I have more time and focus on doing what I'm good at in terms of trading!
Thanks
Peter
Hi Stewart
Do you find the selections of the big newspaper tipsters affects which horses steam and drift?
Jeff
Do you find the selections of the big newspaper tipsters affects which horses steam and drift?
Jeff
Stewart wrote:
This is because I come from a betting background and have a good grasp of what is right/wrong/false etc - I traded believing that the market and my opinion on prices would ultimatley match. It didn't and I lost money.
Hi Jeff
It can be a factor but not one that is too reliable or one that can be easliy modelled.
The price of a horse is determined by many factors and is also dependant on the medium you use - exchange, bookmaker or spread firm.
The trouble with pricing up a race is that it is subjective and the object (for bookies anyway) is to get a balanced book. Also remember that the racing tipsters have to write their copy 18-24hours before a race, same applies to the prices you see in the trade press such as the racing post.
For those looking for a medium to spot a drift, one factor that can be used is that of a significant change in the going - be careful on this though as some courses are very slow in informing the public that the going has changed and also to what degree.
The majority of horses are only able to run to their peak on a certain type of going.
However, the market will always react, but you may just get an additional edge.
In my opinion focus first on the market and how you use it to improve your trading and then start looking for other criteria.
It can be a factor but not one that is too reliable or one that can be easliy modelled.
The price of a horse is determined by many factors and is also dependant on the medium you use - exchange, bookmaker or spread firm.
The trouble with pricing up a race is that it is subjective and the object (for bookies anyway) is to get a balanced book. Also remember that the racing tipsters have to write their copy 18-24hours before a race, same applies to the prices you see in the trade press such as the racing post.
For those looking for a medium to spot a drift, one factor that can be used is that of a significant change in the going - be careful on this though as some courses are very slow in informing the public that the going has changed and also to what degree.
The majority of horses are only able to run to their peak on a certain type of going.
However, the market will always react, but you may just get an additional edge.
In my opinion focus first on the market and how you use it to improve your trading and then start looking for other criteria.
Hi Peter
I don't know how useful Adrian Massey's website is for bookmaking (it's http://www.adrianmassey.com, for anyone who isn't aware of it).
However, I find Mr Massey's databases very interesting. All sorts of stuff is written on the Internet about reading horse form, and his databases of past races enables you to separate the wheat from the chaff- see http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/db3/ ... A5MDkwNw==
You can check, for example, how much more likely horses that have run in the last 5 days are to win, or whether favourites in large fields are less profitable to back than favourites in small fields.
Interestingly, Mr Massey's top-rated selections are far less profitable to back now than they were a few years ago, suggesting that either the market is becoming more efficient or that they are taking his ratings into account. See http://www.adrianmassey.com/sel/sel0.php
Jeff
I don't know how useful Adrian Massey's website is for bookmaking (it's http://www.adrianmassey.com, for anyone who isn't aware of it).
However, I find Mr Massey's databases very interesting. All sorts of stuff is written on the Internet about reading horse form, and his databases of past races enables you to separate the wheat from the chaff- see http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/db3/ ... A5MDkwNw==
You can check, for example, how much more likely horses that have run in the last 5 days are to win, or whether favourites in large fields are less profitable to back than favourites in small fields.
Interestingly, Mr Massey's top-rated selections are far less profitable to back now than they were a few years ago, suggesting that either the market is becoming more efficient or that they are taking his ratings into account. See http://www.adrianmassey.com/sel/sel0.php
Jeff
PeterLe wrote:
I've come across a web site called adrian massey and wondered whether anyone has an experience of it and whether it is possible to derive the tissue price from it?? I tried to calcualte some SP's from his data last night but the spreads/ratings are relatively close (in real terms). This would be the idael medium for me as his data can easily be copied and pasted into an excel spreadsheet..
Thanks Stewart
I agree.
And as you point out, market movements will often not correlate with a horse's true chances (and are often hype-driven), so being a form guru might not help my trading anyway...
Jeff
I agree.
And as you point out, market movements will often not correlate with a horse's true chances (and are often hype-driven), so being a form guru might not help my trading anyway...
Jeff
Stewart wrote:
In my opinion focus first on the market and how you use it to improve your trading and then start looking for other criteria.
If the pre-race market goes not correspond to a horses true chances, the form-guru can just leave the trade In-Play and eventually the prices will go to the horses true potential.
Very vey diifcult to price up a race I think Peter. That's my approach but very very difficult - much more difficult than numbers-based trading I think, on the other hand the rewards are much higher. (10%-20% ROI if you get it right).
Very interesting data base, does explode all sorts of 'urban myths' about racing. For instance its interesting that quite contrary to 'popular punter belief', the races with young inexperienced horses and the novice races are actually far more predictable than other races (favourites win up to 40% of the time in these races, as compared to only 30% on average). All sorts of interesting things in there.
Very vey diifcult to price up a race I think Peter. That's my approach but very very difficult - much more difficult than numbers-based trading I think, on the other hand the rewards are much higher. (10%-20% ROI if you get it right).
Very interesting data base, does explode all sorts of 'urban myths' about racing. For instance its interesting that quite contrary to 'popular punter belief', the races with young inexperienced horses and the novice races are actually far more predictable than other races (favourites win up to 40% of the time in these races, as compared to only 30% on average). All sorts of interesting things in there.