Over-Round

[brunty122]

Your assuming you can lay at the current available to back odds which means putting orders into the market (in a queue) and waiting to get matched (not guaranteed).

OK. Thanks for the replies.

When I said lay when the Over-round is 108% I mean when the Under-round is 92%.

I need to look at how the change in book percentage changes the odds I think

[spreadbetting]

The problem with a 108%/92% book is that there will be very little activity in the market and it's more likely people will just pick off the bets you place that are value to them and leave the others. Just because the market %'s may later close to 101/99 doesn't mean the bets you've had taken would have increased or decreased in your favour.

[brunty122]

I have been looking at the upcoming Chile vs Germany game.

The odds on the betfair exchange are: Chile - 3.25
Germany - 2.4
Draw - 3.5
Over-round=101%

William hill odds are: Chile - 3.10
Germany - 2.37
Draw - 3.10
Over-round=106.7%

Im saying that if you backed all 3 outcomes on Betfair at the Over-round the if the Over-round went to 106.7% then in turn the Under-round would be about 94% offering a lay all 3 selections opportunity

Hope that is more clear of what im thinking. Feel free to tell me if im wrong or it wouldnt work

[brunty122]

The problem with a 108%/92% book is that there will be very little activity in the market and it's more likely people will just pick off the bets you place that are value to them and leave the others. Just because the market %'s may later close to 101/99 doesn't mean the bets you've had taken would have increased or decreased in your favour.

Ahhh OK. That makes sense. Cheers

[LinusP]

I have been looking at the upcoming Chile vs Germany game.

The odds on the betfair exchange are: Chile - 3.25
Germany - 2.4
Draw - 3.5
Over-round=101%

William hill odds are: Chile - 3.10
Germany - 2.37
Draw - 3.10
Over-round=106.7%

Im saying that if you backed all 3 outcomes on Betfair at the Over-round the if the Over-round went to 106.7% then in turn the Under-round would be about 94% offering a lay all 3 selections opportunity

Hope that is more clear of what im thinking. Feel free to tell me if im wrong or it wouldnt work

The overround and underround aren't directly (mathematically) related, i.e. you can have 134% / 98% or 101% / 68%

[brunty122]

Ahhh ok thanks. I didnt know that

[spreadbetting]

I have been looking at the upcoming Chile vs Germany game.

The odds on the betfair exchange are: Chile - 3.25
Germany - 2.4
Draw - 3.5
Over-round=101%

William hill odds are: Chile - 3.10
Germany - 2.37
Draw - 3.10
Over-round=106.7%

Im saying that if you backed all 3 outcomes on Betfair at the Over-round the if the Over-round went to 106.7% then in turn the Under-round would be about 94% offering a lay all 3 selections opportunity

Hope that is more clear of what im thinking. Feel free to tell me if im wrong or it wouldnt work

You can't really compare the bookies prices with Betfair, Betfair prices are always more competitive , the closer you get to the start time the nearer to 100% the over/underround gets as more people are offering more attractive odds and x-matching etc comes into play rather than it lengthening to say 106%. There are times you can take advantage of mismatches in bookies/betfair odds and overrounds but this isnt one of them.

[brunty122]

You can't really compare the bookies prices with Betfair, Betfair prices are always more competitive , the closer you get to the start time the nearer to 100% the over/underround gets as more people are offering more attractive odds and x-matching etc comes into play rather than it lengthening to say 106%. There are times you can take advantage of mismatches in bookies/betfair odds and overrounds but this isnt one of them.

Thanks. Starting to become alot more clear now. Watched the Over-round/Under-round of the Chile vs Germany game and its not deviating at all really from 101/99

[Emmson]

I have been backwards & forwards on this forum in the past with a fine-tooth comb on the hunt for valuable insights & I reckon this is the most intriguing thread found for information on Book % and whether it can help the trader. Some posters on there make it sound almost like the Holy Grail which after investigating and testing i found it to be nothing of the sort.

http://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic ... 2&start=40

Go To School on the entire thread but especially the 2nd 1/2 of it!

Also check out Peter's thoughts on Book % where he tells us

From a trading perspective the book% doesn’t hold much value for me as it is a re-active measure.

https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2011/10/13/book/

[brunty122]

I have been backwards & forwards on this forum in the past with a fine-tooth comb on the hunt for valuable insights & I reckon this is the most intriguing thread found for information on Book % and whether it can help the trader. Some posters on there make it sound almost like the Holy Grail which after investigating and testing i found it to be nothing of the sort.

http://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic ... 2&start=40

Go To School on the entire thread but especially the 2nd 1/2 of it!

Also check out Peter's thoughts on Book % where he tells us

From a trading perspective the book% doesn’t hold much value for me as it is a re-active measure.

https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2011/10/13/book/

Brilliant! Cheers Emmson

[jimibt]

I have been backwards & forwards on this forum in the past with a fine-tooth comb on the hunt for valuable insights & I reckon this is the most intriguing thread found for information on Book % and whether it can help the trader. Some posters on there make it sound almost like the Holy Grail which after investigating and testing i found it to be nothing of the sort.

the one place where this *reactive* element of book% can be advantageous (IP) is in the dying moments (final few furlongs) of the race when all sorts of reconciliation takes place across the market. in this instance, keeping a weather eye on unusual book% can yield interesting outcomes.

[spreadbetting]

Some posters on there make it sound almost like the Holy Grail which after investigating and testing i found it to be nothing of the sort.

You have to remember everyone approaches the markets in different ways and have different angles they'll try to exploit. I'd agree it's not the Holy Grail but I do think it's worth understanding the overrounds as they can create all sorts of opportunities.

I always look at formed markets in terms of a water bed, press down on one side and somewhere else will pop up because market forces and x-matching will try to maintain that 101%/99% equilibrium. If a horse is being backed and taking an extra 5% out of the book that 5% will have to be absorbed elsewhere, much the same as a water bed it'll generally be taken up at a point of least resistance.

[jimibt]

Some posters on there make it sound almost like the Holy Grail which after investigating and testing i found it to be nothing of the sort.

You have to remember everyone approaches the markets in different ways and have different angles they'll try to exploit. I'd agree it's not the Holy Grail but I do think it's worth understanding the overrounds as they can create all sorts of opportunities.

I always look at formed markets in terms of a water bed, press down on one side and somewhere else will pop up because market forces and x-matching will try to maintain that 101%/99% equilibrium. If a horse is being backed and taking an extra 5% out of the book that 5% will have to be absorbed elsewhere, much the same as a water bed it'll generally be taken up at a point of least resistance.

similar analogy that i use - i tend to think of the market as a closed system operating like a set of pistons. the trick is to have observed enough markets to identify the likely mechanics of this piston action.

[Emmson]

I have recently noticed in US Horse Racing Markets how often the Underround goes over 100%, it's not an aberration. happens often. On other markets its extremely rare but not there.

[LinusP]

I have recently noticed in US Horse Racing Markets how often the Underround goes over 100%, it's not an aberration. happens often. On other markets its extremely rare but not there.

It's because XM is normally off.