Win to place prices on horse racing - Harville

[Euler]

It's perfectly possible to do, just very complicated and when you do it, it turns out the market is better. The market seems to discount, running style and the draw bias.

But if you want to work out the odds on horse B in a five runner race you would need to do the following steps.

Algebraic description: -

Horse A wins = A
B beats all others = (c+d+e)/(b+c+d+e)
Horse A win and B 2nd = a wins*b 2nd

C wins B beats all others (2nd) c*(b/(a+b+d+e)
D wins B 2nd d*(b/(a+b+c+e)
E wins B 2nd e*(b/(a+b+c+d)
B comes in second = All the above added together 40%+0.53% etc etc

B wins = Implied probability

B wins or B comes 2nd = b comes second + b wins

It can get quite complicated.

[Iron]

I once heard there are some horses which rarely win, but which often place, meaning you can't derive the true place odds of such horses from the win odds. This is possibly because horses are pack animals, and being in front might make some horses feel exposed.

Also, I believe low-odds favourites are less likely to place than their implied place odds suggest (presumably because they have a greater tendency than other horses to either win or finish nowhere, depending on whether they run to potential).

Jeff

It can get quite complicated.

[rubysglory]

Thanks Euler. Designing a trifecta formulae similar to that which you exampled and then extrapolating the required data might be the way to go. Mind you, Jeff, you may well hold the key with your 'pack animals' theory. Some horses just win or run nowhere.

Phew ! Going to keep me busy I think.

Thanks again guys.

rg

[toptrader]

Interesting to understand if you think this pack theory applies to Greyhounds also, or if you think a calculation of the place odds would be 'fairer' as there are less other factors in the way

(there are different factors to do with the course etc, but at least there's not jockey to interfere)

[maycontainnuts]

Been getting some amusing emails recently on a fool proof way to make money trading on horses. Found this thread on the forum so worth a bump.

[burdo77]

I have a shit load of data on win place prices, one thing I found is when I tried to lock in a value trade it went against me.

I assume because some horses place better than others and the market are smarter than people using the harville formula.

If u look at the Adrian Massey site you will find some interesting stats, not sure how to exploit the place market yet however I believe the value lies in laying rather than backing.