The Open Golf Championship 2025

[sionascaig]

Not a bad idea. You could probably modify the "fill the gap servant" for something like golf tournaments I'd imagine. I just can't be arsed collecting the data to see if it'll work.

Shhhhh..... (that would be bang on track)

[Lynskey888]

On the winner w/o Scheffler market yes, but very poor liquidity, I think only a few hundred thousand matched over the 4 days.

Is that true? Correct me if I’m wrong, please, but as dead-heat rules apply in the “without” market, and a tie for second place is possible, if you lay multiple players at evens, say, surely you could still end up with a red if a combination of those players finish as joint runner-up?

I know English happened to finish in outright second in this tournament, but you understand my point? I must admit, dead-heat rules are a bit of a mystery to me, so I stand to be corrected.

[Lynskey888]

Suspect I may be havering. Can’t get my head round it at this hour. Seems very counterintuitive to me.

[TupleVision]

Suspect I may be havering. Can’t get my head round it at this hour. Seems very counterintuitive to me.

Ah you may be right. I just thought it would be the same as the outright but of course there's a playoff which the w/o won't benefit from.

Not sure how the loss would be calculated for laying, dead heat backing horses the win is divided by the winners I believe, probably the opposite of laying then, loss is multiplied by number of losers?

[Lynskey888]

I actually think you were correct originally, TupleVision. I’ve experimented with a dead-heat calculator and checked the rules and I’ve come to the conclusion you’d be green - though somewhat reduced compared to no dead-heat - when laying multiple players in the event of a dead-heat in the “without” market. Confirmation from someone more knowledgeable would be appreciated.

I don’t have much involvement in markets where the dead-heat is a possibility, and in these golf “without” markets I’m always fully hedged so it hasn’t been a concern.

Cheers!

[Tuco]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcghMOMAGZI

I've just re-watched Peter's recent golf video (link above) which is interesting stuff!

At the cut, on X Peter posted his P&L to be +£1,577. As I previously said I'd love to watch Peter trade a golf major for a few hours, simply watching what he does and how he does it, but sadly of course such an invite won't be coming my way, lol.

What Peter might be able to say is what his biggest red was at any one stage and how long did he hold it before greening up?

...and any other insight would also be most welcome Peter!

[TupleVision]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcghMOMAGZI

I've just re-watched Peter's recent golf video (link above) which is interesting stuff!

At the cut, on X Peter posted his P&L to be +£1,577. As I previously said I'd love to watch Peter trade a golf major for a few hours, simply watching what he does and how he does it, but sadly of course such an invite won't be coming my way, lol.

What Peter might be able to say is what his biggest red was at any one stage and how long did he hold it before greening up?

...and any other insight would also be most welcome Peter!

I've watched the video, the thing is, what Peter explains in that video is what I've been doing for months, tracking SG to identify fair odds on players that are under/over performing based on their market odds. I clearly need to tweak something in my model or perhaps just be a bit braver with some of my decisions but I just can't identify the kind of opportunities Peter seems to! Agree, any additional insight the man himself can offer the better

[gstar1975]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcghMOMAGZI

I've just re-watched Peter's recent golf video (link above) which is interesting stuff!

At the cut, on X Peter posted his P&L to be +£1,577. As I previously said I'd love to watch Peter trade a golf major for a few hours, simply watching what he does and how he does it, but sadly of course such an invite won't be coming my way, lol.

What Peter might be able to say is what his biggest red was at any one stage and how long did he hold it before greening up?

...and any other insight would also be most welcome Peter!

I think the only way you could've achieved that total is by backing Scheffler, and a few others. If you look at the not perfect hedged amounts you can see which ones he backed and which ones he laid. Just in the photo of course there may be others. If the amount is low he laid it first, and if the amount it higher he backed it first. Definitely some dutching going on.

The ones ending in .23 are the ones he didn't trade, .25 Scheffler is higher than .23 so he backed him, .37 on Harman and Li means he also backed them. Tell me if I'm wrong Peter.

Peters total The Open 2025 Portrush.jpg