BTW Jeff is still my overall favorite
James1st wrote:Andy. I have no idea whether the "bomber" is a net winner or net loser in the markets, nor am I familiar with his in-running bets (I'm not in that market normally), assuming that its the same guy doing both pre and in-running bets.
However, through observation, he does have the same MO pre race and that implies that he isn't just randomly placing a single win bet and moving on to the next race. He always places his bet (not a rounded amount) at a specific time or rather at a particular conformation of odds movement; his stakes vary according to both "how much" is in the back queue and the how that money is structured (top heavy) at the succession of odds below the current price. His bet almost always takes all the money down to the next or the next+1 resistance level from where it generally only ever recovers about half the drop. I cannot tell if the subsequent lay bets belong to the same person but they always, in total, at least match the large single bet.
It does not seem a coincidence that his bet takes out all the odds down to a specific key technical level every time; whether or not he is left with a portion unmatched after the transaction. The mere fact that the odds drop suddenly causes a temporary paralysis of the market followed by a "cautious" amount of laying. There is ample time for largish lay bets to offset the huge back bet and those lay bets all appear to be at odds lower than the artificial median created as a result of the bet.
The evidence (a) the precise entry (b) careful not to go below technical support/resistance (c) stake calculated to match a specific queue conformation and size all suggest that he is a trader who does not tread softly softly but rather calculates and times his bets with precision.
I could be wrong but as a trading technique it does work.
